Five hundred years ago, because of the ocean, mankind built a real world stage, and all countries, big or small, strong or weak, performed their roles on this stage. Five hundred years later, because of the sky, human beings have further expanded the space of this stage. When people stay at home, they can know what is happening in the world. The world has become smaller, but the performance of the country continues, and each character has a new meaning. The accompanying music also plays the notes of the new era. China is a rising eastern country, and we hope that she will become the protagonist on the world stage in the near future, leaving her deep mark in the long river of history. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance for China, which is in the process of modernization, to study the historical experience of the rise of great powers. The rise of a country is to rise to become a modern country, that is, to realize modernization. The history of nearly 500 years has fully proved this point, especially for big countries. I think that modernization is the highly developed economy, culture and politics, and the sustained and harmonious development of society, that is, the rise of economy, culture and politics. Of course, we still have a long way to go to become a modern power. There may be economic crisis, cultural loss and social unrest on the road, but as long as we can learn from the historical experience of the rise of great powers and look forward to the future of China with a rational eye, a prosperous, strong, democratic and civilized socialist modern country will surely rise proudly in the ancient East. From the geographical discovery of western European countries at the end of15th century to the opening of new navigation channels at the beginning of16th century, and then to the rapid development of economic globalization, transportation and communication technology, we are now facing a more interconnected and interdependent world than before. The development of every country is inseparable from the world stage. You have me and I have your development model, which makes national interests and global interests closer and closer, and no country can become an island in the world economic ocean. In other words, if a country wants to grow and develop, it must conform to and integrate into the world and conform to the development trend of the world. Therefore, while influencing the world, China must not deviate from the track of the world. While our policies are in line with the national interests, we should also meet the requirements of the world to the greatest extent. Of course, everything has two sides, but the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. We should take this opportunity to learn from developed countries. Throughout history, Peter I of Russia went to Western Europe anonymously to study and became the famous Peter the Great. Japan once sent envoys from Iwakura, spent 2% of its fiscal revenue and visited 12 European and American countries in one year and ten months. After being surprised, intoxicated and finally crazy, it brought about the rapid development of modern Japan. Our big brother, the Soviet Union, has two-thirds of large enterprises built with American technology. From 65438 to 0932, there were 6800 experts from various countries working in the heavy industry department of the Soviet Union. With so much foreign exchange reserves in China today, how much advanced technology can be introduced if we buy less Airbus. Some people may say that we want to introduce technology, but foreign countries don't. But look at history, Britain once imposed a strict trade blockade on the United States, while the United States reduced various tariffs through the principle of reciprocity, eliminated external differences, offset tariffs, and established a wider range of trade targets. In my opinion, in today's market economy, as long as countries conduct normal trade, it is not a problem to introduce foreign advanced technology. In short, learning from foreign countries is the best way for late-developing countries to catch up with developed countries, and it is also the beginning of the road to prosperity. I. Economic Rise A scholar summed up five points as the blueprint for China's economic development: (1) sustained, stable and balanced economic growth; (2) The factors of production increase with the population growth; (3) The ecological environment improves with the economic growth; (4) Social employment and economic growth; (5) The society is more fair and harmonious. I think if these five points can be achieved, then China's economy will really rise. There are many ways of economic growth, including the increase of investment in labor factors and capital factors, technological progress, changes in education and growth structure, and so on. However, throughout history, we can verify four unchangeable development theorems, namely, the dividend of peace and stability, openness is the resource, human capital is the key, and deterministic structural growth (these four theorems are not created by myself), which are the necessary and sufficient conditions for the rise of great powers. (1) Peace and stability dividend Peace and stability can not only provide development space for the country, but also enhance the investment and consumption confidence of the ruling group and the people. When speculative demand increases, it prevents demand from decreasing. Good expectations for the future make the money market and capital market more active, and the economy naturally shows a trend of growth. The "Roman Peace" in history brought unprecedented stability to Rome, technology was widely spread, and business conditions were self-regulated according to economic laws, which contributed to the economic prosperity of the Roman Empire. On the contrary, the war made the country's economic level retrogress, and the first and second world wars brought painful lessons to many countries. Take France as an example. During the period of 1938- 1943, the value of all agricultural products in France decreased by 40%, and the industrial production index of 1944 was only 40% of that of 1938. Foreign trade has shrunk severely. Compare with 1938, 1943. The total loss is 654.38+0.44 trillion francs, which is equivalent to the total gross national product of France in the three years before the war. Of course, the development of China should also follow peace and stability, but I think it is also very dangerous to bury one's head in the economy and take economic development as an unshakable central task in the increasingly turbulent international situation and years of war. In order to safeguard national interests and economic achievements, the country must also have a strong military force. Chairman Mao put it well: if people don't attack me, I won't attack; If people attack me, I will attack. The peaceful development of China should be like this. Appropriate tolerance is ok, but there must be a bottom line. We strengthen army building in order to better achieve peaceful development. China's old democratic revolution tells us that industry and education alone cannot save the country, but guns are needed. The same is true in the world today. The model we want is a strong rise. (2) Openness is an open resource structure, which means not only the opening of market, trade and investment, but also the free flow of production factors and population. Foreign trade is one of the main manifestations of opening to the outside world. How did Athens, a commercial city-state, develop because it became the trade center of the Mediterranean? Why are Spain and Portugal the first rising world powers? Isn't it because of the great geographical discovery that their overseas trade has developed rapidly? 1686 Nearly half of Britain's ships were engaged in foreign trade. 19 The free trade policy advocated in the 1960s made Britain a world power until the early 20th century. Looking at modern America, the foreign capital introduced in 1904 and 19 14 reached $3.9 billion and $5 billion respectively, which was one of the countries with the largest capital inflow at that time. During the period of1815-1914, about 35 million people from Europe immigrated to the United States. During this period, every wave of immigration has led to the inflow of capital, the renewal of technology and the expansion of the market. From the above data and analysis, it can be seen that the local development of a country is always limited. Opening up can not only obtain more resources, but also optimize the original resources and improve the efficiency of resource use. Today, China is a country with scarce resources. The reserves and output of natural resources, especially water resources and oil and gas resources, are seriously insufficient. Today, China is on the rise, and the domestic controllable resources are far from enough to ensure this rise. Since we can't solve problems by force, we need a more open foreign policy to ease contradictions. China is still a country with insufficient capital elements, backward technology and imperfect market system. Except for the shortage of human resources, other aspects need to be solved through opening up. Therefore, we have to say that Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up is indeed a wise move and a basic national policy that we must adhere to for a long time. I really hope that one day, like Britain in the19th century, China will make its people proud through proper foreign trade policies: the plains of North America and Russia are our cornfields, Canada and the Baltic Sea are our forest areas, Australia has our sheep farm, Peru sends silver, South Africa and Australia's gold flows to London, Indians and China grow tea for us, our coffee, sugar cane and spice plantations are all over east indies, and our cotton is cultivated. (3) Human capital is the key. We must first understand the difference between human resources and human capital. The former is a consumer and cannot create added value, while the latter is a producer and can create added value. The condition of transforming human resources into human capital lies in education, which will be discussed in detail later. It is only necessary to explain that human capital can improve production efficiency and bring economic growth. (4) Deterministic structural growth Economic structural progress brings about certain economic growth, which is logical and there is no doubt. Throughout the world economic history, I have summarized the following economic development trends, during which every change in the economic structure, big or small, is the progress of human society. Around 9000 BC, human history changed from Paleolithic to Neolithic, from hunting and gathering economy to planting animal husbandry economy, which was an epoch-making change, because human beings entered a period of increasing the mode of production of natural products by their own activities. Subsequently, animal husbandry and handicraft industry were separated from agriculture, which also greatly improved labor productivity. Entering the slave society, due to the need of irrigation and large-scale engineering construction, a large number of slaves were bound to the land of slave owners for agricultural and handicraft production; Then the feudal economy, excessive feudalism. Due to the characteristics that land in the East is allowed to be bought and sold, and the Asian ownership form of "under the sky, is it the land of kings, the shore of the land, and the minister of kings", China and other countries have moved towards a long-term small-scale peasant economy; At the same time, western countries under ancient ownership have moved towards manor economy, with Britain as a typical example. With the emergence of early colonial movement, liberation movement, enclosure movement and later commercial revolution, mercantilism and agricultural revolution, workshop handicraft industry, private ownership of land and large tenant farming system have emerged. Then in the second half of the18th century, an unprecedented revolution broke out in England, which changed the course of human history. This revolution is not only a technological and economic revolution, but also a complicated political, social and cultural revolution. We call it the industrial revolution. The industrial revolution brought people into the era of industrial economy. However, with the gradual reduction of resources and the surplus of products, many developed countries have turned to service economy. Compared with the shortage of agricultural economy and surplus industrial economy, service economy is efficient and sustainable. The growth source of service economy lies in human capital, which is infinite and everyone can become human capital, so there will be no shortage and social equity will be fully realized. Services are produced and consumed in time, so there will be no surplus when production and consumption are synchronized; Service economy is less dependent on resources, so it will not destroy the ecological environment; The growth brought by service economy is certain and controllable. With the improvement of living standards, material consumption will inevitably decrease and service consumption will inevitably increase. In addition, education and human resources can be controlled, so can the service economy. Generally speaking, human beings have experienced the development process from agricultural economy to industrial economy and then to service economy. History tells us that whoever can develop his own industry according to his own advantages, adjust his own industrial structure in time according to the situation at home and abroad, and keep up with the development trend of the world will continue to develop. A good economic development model should be that the economic curve rises and the resource consumption curve falls, forming a scissors difference. Service economy is such an economic model. Since China can't escape the contradiction between the finiteness of global resources and the infinity of world economic development, it needs to be transformed. Don't be complacent about the GDP brought by industrial economy, because the premise of China's rise is to achieve sustainable development. I once had a view that the transformation from industrial economy to service economy was conditional on the accumulation of original capital. When the industrial economy develops to a certain stage, a large number of workers are laid off and farmers' livelihood cannot be guaranteed, it is necessary to accumulate original capital to resolve contradictions. Western countries also had this problem in the early days of capitalism, but they made up for domestic social problems by sacrificing colonial resources. Stalin chose a different path. This is to deprive local farmers, and at the same time, in order to prevent polarization, he used collective farms to prevent uneven distribution. But as far as today's China is concerned, it can neither colonize nor collectivize in absolute equality. From 1978 to now, only 29 years of industrialization and 29 years of capital accumulation are enough to turn China into a service economy? I don't think so. From1the second half of the 8th century to1the 1950s, the industrial revolution in Britain took such a long time to come to an end. But times are different. History will not give China overseas markets and resources like Britain. We should change ourselves as soon as possible within a limited time, and complete the development process of western countries for hundreds of years in decades. There is a saying that the government should strengthen environmental governance while engaging in industrialization. I think it's easy. The law of industrialization tells us that it is impossible not to destroy resources and environment on a large scale. But what can China do now? If we don't manage and save resources, can we develop into the next millennium? The answer is definitely not. The world has posed a problem to the rising China, but China will not be deterred by it. We have the wisdom and ability to solve problems in development. In the near future, an oriental superstar will surely rise in Ran Ran! Second, the rise of culture. Ideology and culture play a very important role in the rise of great powers, which affects the quality and spirit of a nation. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously said: I would rather lose an India than a Shakespeare. In the process of becoming a great country, the playwright Shakespeare's works carried forward the British humanistic spirit, the scientist Newton's laws of mechanics opened the door to the British industrial revolution, and the economist Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations provided a new economic order for Britain. Their names are strikingly written on the road of great countries that Britain has traveled. In the Panthé on, the holy land of French thought and spirit, the main entrance is engraved with the following words: "To the great men, the motherland thanks them." There are 72 French historical figures buried here, of which only 1 1 is a politician, and most of the rest are thinkers, writers, artists and scientists. For many years, France and the United States have been making their voices known to the world with their outstanding cultural influence, which may be the fundamental reason. The American Declaration of Independence advocates that everyone is equal, and the creator has endowed people with some inalienable rights, including the right to life, freedom and the right to pursue happiness, which has laid a solid foundation for the future development of the United States. The power of culture can go through thousands of years and lead a nation to be at the forefront of the world forever. China is a vast country with a civilization of 5,000 years. Our traditional culture is a treasure of the world, but how many people in China have studied it in a down-to-earth way? I think when they haven't read The Analects, they will follow suit and queue up to buy The Analects. Tasting the Three Kingdoms before reading the Three Kingdoms is not real learning. Although the understanding of university professors is very reasonable, it is the understanding of others after all. Isn't it a good thing that different people have different understandings of culture? Of course, in today's globalization, we should learn western culture, but isn't it a sublimation to read Laozi's Tao Te Ching after studying management? I heard a child reciting the three-character sutra on the bus the other day. I was shocked. As a college student, I can't recite it. Am I not ashamed? If a group of people really study our traditional culture in an impetuous society, I'm afraid they are China's new hope. Although Japanese suits are very popular, kimono has been preserved as the most gorgeous dress. With more bars, the teahouse is still a spiritual quiet place for people. Western operas have begun to sing, and vibrant dramas and kabuki are moving towards and reaching. When oil painting began to shine, Japanese ukiyo-e painting became a major school of painting in the world. Look at our China again, and I can't help feeling sorry for it. Tang suit is only considered as a fashion trend, but it is just a fashion. China's few minutes in university sports meeting, disabled sports and even the Olympic Games will always be Peking Opera and dances with western colors. Is this the only thing left in China? The cultural changes in China are thought-provoking! There is no doubt that culture needs education, but why is education in China always so backward? While the government talks about strengthening the construction of spiritual civilization, it makes the expensive tuition eventually become the burden of the people. It is unrealistic to realize universal free university education in China, but is it so difficult to realize nine-year compulsory education and corresponding vocational education? There are more than 4,000 universities in the United States, and 70% of higher education enrolls students. This is the largest higher education system in the world, which makes it gain the core competitiveness in the information age. 1820, the map of China has been hung in the class of Prussian primary school. No wonder German Marshal Mao Qi said: Prussia's victory was decided on the platform of primary school teachers. I don't believe in the rapid economic growth (1979-the average annual GDP growth rate in China in 2004 was 9.6%) and the increasing foreign exchange reserves (the foreign exchange balance in 2006 was 10663 billion US dollars). Why is the education expenditure so tight (the national education expenditure in 2005 was 3951590,000 yuan? The proportion of national education expenditure to GDP is 2. 16%, while the expenditure on science and technology only accounts for 0.05%. )。 Maybe economic development is more about the interests of interest groups, and maybe GDP growth figures are what they want! The rise of culture can bring about institutional innovation and technological innovation. Joseph Yaning, executive deputy director of the Center for Applied Political Studies in Munich, Germany, said: In the long run, a country that can only provide cheap products cannot become a strong country. Only when this country has strong innovation ability and can independently develop new products, that is, it has strong human capital, and only in this way can its development be sustainable. Without the rise of culture, can France have the Declaration of Human Rights and Independence that has influenced Europe for nearly a hundred years? When will Britain's Watt make a steam engine free from natural forces? Soviet astronaut Gagarin may never realize the dream of going into space. 1929 The world economic crisis will make the United States decline, and Keynesianism and Roosevelt's New Deal will be out of the question. There is a good saying: a nation that knows how to respect ideas will give birth to great ideas. Only a country with great ideas can have the power to keep moving forward, freedom, equality and fraternity. This is a beautiful ideal of human society. It may never be fully realized, but people can approach it infinitely in endless years. Three. Political Rise Many political rises are included in economic rise and cultural rise. I just want to talk about the legal system construction in China. As early as 15, China Producers' Party solemnly proposed: ruling the country according to law and building a socialist country ruled by law. How will our legal society be built by 2007? It can be said that it is not perfect. In the case of imperfect legal system, there will be many problems such as government corruption and citizens' loss of citizenship. In the process of China's reform, entrepreneurs' value creation activities are often intertwined with the rent-seeking behavior of government officials. Because many commercial rights that citizens should have in the market economy are monopolized by government departments-for example, starting enterprises and making investments require government approval, many individuals and enterprises have to "redeem" their rights through special means, resulting in power and money transactions. In addition, the interests of government officials are often inconsistent with the orientation of real reform, but the government has the right to carry out reforms according to its own will, regardless of whether such measures are effective or not, so there are many policies and measures in China that are not worthy of the name. Recently, China's financial bad debts have become the focus of social attention. It is reported that the bank rescue operation initiated by China government in 2004 will cost at least 2.3 trillion yuan. Add 1998 to 1999, and the China municipal government will spend nearly 4 100 billion yuan on the rescue operations of the four major state-owned banks. This astronomical figure swallowed up more than 40% of China's GDP in 2004. In other words, in 2004, all China people worked for China's state-owned banking system for more than five months for free. I want to ask who gave the government the right? State money is the money of all citizens, not government relief. If China had a sound legal system and strict law enforcement, I am afraid this would not happen. The rise of a great power should be multifaceted, whether it is material or spiritual, soft power or hard power, national strength or system. As long as people living here enjoy their due rights, it is enough for people to live a happy life. Although China has encountered many setbacks in the process of development and there are too many things to sum up, setbacks mean a new start for a great nation. We have reason to believe that our motherland can cope with everything, China will certainly play its own notes on the world stage, and the world will be more harmonious because of the rise of China!