1. Understanding of the four words "long-termism"

The term "long-termism" was first used two or three years ago. I have always believed that long-termism means persisting to the end. Do something valuable and wait for time to pay off. One day you will succeed. I didn’t realize until yesterday that long-termism does not mean persistence.

As Luo Zhenyu said

gt; We always have a habit of wanting to create a river. We are its source, and then let it keep moving forward. As for what is ahead, It seems that we don’t quite know, and we instinctively call this behavior long-termism.

Just like those friends who speculate in stocks, the stock price has fallen but they are reluctant to cut off the meat, but the stock has no investment value. They do not realize that in their consciousness, what they are thinking is that I have been letting go. Yes, one day it will increase.

On the road of life, I always think that one sentence is really important:

gt; Choice is greater than hard work

When Mr. Lei Jun was interviewed, He once expressed a view to the effect that he was a recognized "model worker" before, working 996, seven days a week, all year round, but Jinshan's achievements were not as good as Ali's. He said that he saw Ma Yun traveling around every day and he didn't seem to work as hard as him. Why was he better than him? As a result, he came up with the famous theory - "Pig in the Wind".

Because the direction is wrong, the harder you work and get rewarded, the bigger the mistake will be.

As long as we use common sense, we will know: persisting in the wrong place can only be a bigger mistake. In fact, there are as many valuable persistence as meaningless persistence; otherwise, who are you talking about "waiting for the rabbit"? Those who persist in doing meaningless things.

If "long-termism" is to have any value, it must be a method, a path that leads with certainty to where you want to be.

I think that for every plan and everything to be successful, it must have a methodology and steps to implement the plan methodology.

One method is that things that cannot be predicted in the short term are easy to judge in the long term.

For example, meteorologists may not know exactly what the temperature will be tomorrow. However, in the northern hemisphere, it will be colder than today in two months, and hotter than today in ten months. This is completely predictable even for a person of my level;

The city you live in We can’t know exactly what housing prices will be next year, but it’s easy to tell whether the city’s population is experiencing a net inflow or a net outflow of housing prices in 10 years.

Having said that, let's look at the word "long-term". It doesn't have any high-profile meaning. It is a very common method: focus on something that does not change and do things well.

Then the problem comes again. Focus on something that doesn’t change and do things well. How long will this take?

2. How long is the “long term” of long-termism?

Is it a long time from birth to death? 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, or 100 years? None of these answers are correct.

Li Xiaolai once said

gt; Fixed investment strategy requires at least two large cycles

From this sentence we know that in fact, the "long-term" unit is not "Year", not the length of time. It's a "cyclical curve".

gt; The definition of "long-term" is: "Long-term" is the fluctuation cycle of the development of things in the world, not the length of time. The length of time is just what it looks like.

Everyone and everything in the world is a parabola in time.

For example, an apple tree on the mountain grows in spring, grows in summer, harvests in autumn, and hides in winter. The cycles of life are just curves of time.

For example, the company's establishment, rise, maturity, bankruptcy... the abstract life line of a company is also a parabola in time. Stocks, love, career, fashion... everything cannot escape this time curve.

So, if the unit of "long-term" is the "cyclical curve", how can long-termists lock in the real long-term goals?

The world’s richest man - Bezos

Success lies in focusing on things that will not change in 10 years

So long-termism does not mean that we insist on something that will not change in the long term; To judge what is worth persisting in long-term changes.

Do you see it like this - long-termism is not a comparison of sentiments, but a method that everyone who wants to do things has to use.

Let me emphasize again: Long-termism does not mean that we insist on long-term changes, but that we must judge what long-term changes are worth persisting in.

Why do people always talk about long-termism, but always focus on persistence instead of stability. My own understanding is: We know the benefits of certainty, but in fact, people don’t like certainty that much in their hearts. Later, I saw a story about Bezos, and suddenly I understood what was going on.

Bezos, the world’s richest man and CEO of Amazon, is a well-known long-termist.

Strategic capabilities driven by long-term thinking are one of the keys to Amazon’s success.

Why should we insist on long-term thinking?

Bezos’s point of view is this:

“If you look at the next three years in everything you do, there will be many people competing with you; but If you can look ahead to the next seven years, there will be very few companies that can compete with you, because few companies are willing to make such long-term plans.”

So Bezos said: “Put it on. All resources are in things that don't change."

What is the unchanging thing that Bezos found?

In fact, there are three very common things in the retail industry:

First, unlimited choices.

Second, the lowest price.

Third, fast delivery.

Bezos’ long-termism stems from a deep understanding of the nature of the retail market.

From this example, we can taste something, that is, those extremely certain things are actually far away. Everyone knows and can see them, but we may not really be willing to follow them. Arrange our current lives with the certainty we need.

We often say that we pursue certainty, but in fact, there is a part of our human nature that does not want certainty. So the only thing that wins the competition between a long-termist and a non-long-termist is that you have done something anti-human.

There is another major misunderstanding about "long-termism", which is that it is focused on the distance.

Wrong. Staring into the distance is like flying a kite. The true posture of a long-termist is to find what is at hand, what is being done, right now.

Long-termism is not about repeating one big thing, but insisting on improving small things one by one.

03 What can you learn to become a long-termist?

This story comes from the public account General Liang of the British Cycling Team.

Before 2003, the British Cycling Team was the most unsuccessful team in history. Because in the past 110 years, the British team has not won a medal in the Tour de France.

Their performance is so bad that manufacturers are unwilling to sell bicycles to them for fear that British riders will bring shame to their brands.

But in 2008, during the Beijing Olympics, British riders took away 60 gold medals; at the 2014 London Olympics, the British team broke 9 Olympic records and 7 world records on their own doorstep; Between 2014 and 2017, British riders actually won five "Tour de France" championships in six years. You know, that was the "Tour de France"!

What has happened in the past 10 years that can transform a team? The answer lies with this man – Team Sky general manager Dave Brailsford.

Dave Brailsford jumped to the British National Cycling Team as a coach in 2003 and proposed the famous "marginal gain theory".

"We follow this principle: dismantle the aspects related to cycling and improve each decomposed part. After being put together, the whole will be significantly improved."

For example, they wipe the tires with alcohol to get better grip; they equip each team member with special pillows and mattresses so that the team members can fall asleep quickly in the hotel on business trips; they even paint the inside of the truck It turns white, which is said to make it easier to detect dust, which will reduce the performance of the tuned bicycle...

The improvement of 1 is inconspicuous, but the energy added by hundreds of 1's is huge. And if you improve by 1 point every day for 10 years, quantitative changes will lead to qualitative changes. And, interestingly, this change is not incremental, but leap-forward.

This kind of leap-forward change is the biggest dividend that long-termists will enjoy, because only if you work hard long enough can you get the biggest piece of the cake.

This is the first story. This story tells us: Long-termism is not about insisting on repeating one big correct thing, but insisting on improving small things one by one.

For a long time at first, you won't see any changes, but once the cumulative time begins to ferment, you will reap a miracle.

gt; Long-termism ≠ Persistence, the reason for long-termism is: Only by extending the time can we get a definite answer in an uncertain world.

gt; The long term of long-termism is not the length of time, but the fluctuation cycle of the development of things. The key is to learn to identify the "direction" of things on the timeline, and to learn to distinguish between major cycles and minor cycles.

gt; To be a long-termist is not to insist on repeating the right big thing, but to insist on improving each small thing; not to endure boring, but to be fully prepared for various uncertainties.