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Second, the central bank issued a "loan restriction order"! Since 202 1, 48 trillion mortgage loans have faced "high-voltage lines"
According to CCTV news reports, on the afternoon of February 3 1, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Establishing the Management System of Real Estate Loan Concentration in Banking Financial Institutions, which will set the management requirements of real estate loan concentration in different stages according to the asset size and institution type of banking financial institutions, and the notice will be implemented from 10/.
The so-called centralized management system of real estate loans mainly refers to Chinese banks, whose real estate loan balance ratio and individual housing loan balance ratio should meet the management requirements stipulated by the People's Bank of China and China Banking Regulatory Commission, that is, they should not be higher than the upper limit stipulated by the regulatory authorities.
Note that the new regulations are divided into two parts: the proportion of real estate loans and the proportion of personal housing loans.
The credit flow in both areas cannot exceed the prescribed limit, which is the two "high-voltage lines" that the property market will face.
So, where is the "upper limit" of real estate loans?
Specifically, it is divided into five major files, and each file has two upper limits, namely, the upper limit of real estate loan and the upper limit of personal mortgage. First list the contents of the new regulations, and then analyze the impact on the property market after the introduction of the regulations.
The six major state-owned banks (China Construction of Workers and Peasants, Postal Service and Transportation) and China Development Bank are the first gear, and the upper limits of the two gears are 40% and 32.5% respectively, which is the highest among the five gears.
China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, CITIC, Xingye and other medium-sized banks followed, with two upper limits of 27.5% and 20% respectively.
The third file is Chinese-funded small banks and non-county agricultural cooperative institutions, mainly including city commercial banks, private banks, large and medium-sized cities and urban agricultural cooperative institutions. The upper limits of the two files are 22.5% and 17.5% respectively.
The fourth file is county-level rural cooperative institutions, and the upper limits of the two files are 17.5% and 12.5% respectively.
The last file is the village bank, and the two upper limits are 12.5% and 7.5% respectively.
Obviously, the conditions of large joint-stock banks we often deal with are the most relaxed, while those of city commercial banks or small banks in counties and towns are the most stringent.
Such detailed, strict and meticulous regulations on the proportion of real estate loans were promulgated on the last day of 2020 and implemented immediately on the first day of 202/kloc-0, without giving the market a buffer period, which has never happened before.
Of course, in the past, the central bank also required the proportion of housing-related loans, but most of them stipulated a vague proportion, or restricted the flow of credit through surprise inspections.
For example, in document Yinfa 12 1 in 2003, document No.46 issued by the Banking Regulatory Commission in 2004 and document No.25 issued by the Banking Regulatory Commission in 2009, the building must meet the requirements of "complete four certificates, 30% of its own funds, and the developer has the second-class qualification or above" before lending to the bank, which is the so-called "432" requirement.
For example, at the end of 20 15, the central bank launched MPA assessment, adding mortgage scale and mortgage-to-development loan ratio indicators. If any bank fails the examination, mother will not give money.
The central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission believe that these measures are far from enough, and we will continue to raise the price of banks, so that real estate can not get what it wants. In our memory, there is really no such thing as issuing official documents, grading and setting a ceiling, which makes the whole market feel a sense of oppression.
Why should the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission "enlarge" real estate loans?
The answer is simple: the proportion of real estate loans is getting higher and higher, and the phenomenon of "too big to fail" has appeared, which has bound the entire financial system.
According to the data of the central bank, at the end of the third quarter of 2020, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 48.83 trillion yuan, up by 12.8% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous quarter, and declined for 26 consecutive months. In the first three quarters, it increased by 4.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.2% of the increase of various loans in the same period, and 6.8 percentage points lower than that at the same period of last year.
President Yi Gang sent a paper some time ago, which mentioned that real estate and financial assets have a dual relationship.
On the one hand, real estate is an important asset of residents and enterprises, and residents and enterprises pose liabilities to banks through real estate financing. The financial assets of banks partly correspond to the real estate in the hands of residents and enterprises.
On the other hand, the rapid expansion of credit secured by real estate will lead to the concentration of financial risks to banks and localities, and it is easy to form a self-strengthening mechanism.
Prynne wrote an article explaining it at that time. Let me give you an example: A is a buyer, B is a bank, C is a city, and D is a housing enterprise.
City C sells the land to the real estate enterprise D, and City C obtains financial revenue.
Housing enterprise d mortgages the land to bank b to build a house.
Buyer A takes income and cash as down payment, mortgages it to Bank B, and converts it into real estate, which is the most important asset composition of the family.
Because of the mortgage, the asset side of Bank B is constantly expanding, and the residential property actually corresponds to the bank's assets.
It has gone up, and everyone is happy. C's fiscal revenue will be more and more, A's assets will be more and more high-quality, and it can be mortgaged again to get more financing. Bank B's assets are also healthy, so it is difficult to have bad debts. The scale of D continues to expand, and land acquisition will intensify. There are hundreds of billions of housing enterprises everywhere, and it is a scene of jubilation.
But in essence, property buyers A, housing enterprises B and cities C all passed on the risks and leverage to banks B. Once there is a liquidity crisis in the property market, the prices of cities that nobody cares about collapse, the market value of real estate shrinks and the value of collateral plummets. The asset side of the bank will inevitably deteriorate, and bad debts and centralized redemption will appear in batches.
According to statistics, in 20 19, the ratio of house price to income in Hong Kong was as high as 49.42 times, ranking first in the world, while that in Chinese mainland was 29.09 times, ranking second in the world.
In contrast, the United States is only 3.5 times, and Japan is 1 1 times, which reflects that the burden of buying houses in China has become significantly heavier, and it is impossible for house prices to go up any more.
You know, both the United States and Japan have experienced a "hard landing" of real estate. After the introduction of "land price tax", Japan's economy collapsed and experienced "lost 20 years". The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States eventually needs the whole world to pay the bill.
Real estate regulation is urgent.
Let's talk about the impact of the new regulations on the real estate industry.
In the short term (1-2 years), the impact is really small.
Guo Sheng Securities collated relevant data. Judging from the total proportion of real estate loans, in the first tranche, China Construction Bank and Bank of China accounted for 4 1.72% and 50.0 1%, which required pressure drop of 1.7% and 10%.
The second tranche of China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial Bank were all overfulfilled, with pressure drops of 6.8%, 0.6%, 1.2% and 7.8% respectively.
In the third stage, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Bank of Zhengzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank and Qingnong Bank need to reduce the pressure by 2.7%, 13.3%, 10.5%, 9.3% and 7.7%.
It can be seen that because the central bank has repeatedly applied to reduce the proportion of real estate loans in recent years, the proportion exceeded by banks is not much. For example, in the first gear, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings and Bank of Communications are all under the "ceiling" and the quota has not been used up.
Even if the proportion of housing-related loans of CCB and BOC exceeds the limit, the next step is to control the growth rate of loans, because the total amount of credit has been increasing.
If the denominator increases, the numerator will not move, even if it exceeds the loan ceiling of 10%, it can still reach the standard.
What's more, banks still have a transition period.
If the proportion of housing-related loans exceeds 2%, the transition period is two years, and the proportion exceeds 4%. The transition period of business adjustment is as long as four years, and most banks can land smoothly.
However, in the long term (5- 10 years), it is extremely unfavorable to buyers and the real estate industry.
There is only one key word: long-term mechanism.
In the past, it controlled the status quo and controlled the banking stocks. After a gust of wind, it did not affect the "real fragrance" status of real estate as high-quality collateral. Banks, housing enterprises and property buyers are all happy.
The current regulation controls hard indicators, expectations and credit increments, and wants to put all valuable credit resources into real estate as before, but there is no way.
The "three red lines" of housing enterprises are aimed at the loan demand of real estate.
The bank's "two high-voltage lines" aim at the loan supply of the financial system.
While restraining "demand" and controlling "supply", it took a long time to gradually "iron out" the side effects caused by the rapid expansion of the real estate industry and ease the financial system's dependence on the property market.
Jiang Tianyang has a famous saying: there are three conditions for doing great things: first silver, second silver and third silver.
No matter how high the developer's means of capital integration is, and how strong the ability of buyers to break through the restrictions on purchases, loans and sales is, without the continuous "silver" support of banks, the foundation for credit expansion will be gone, and it is futile to say anything.
Therefore, the central bank chose 202 1 to issue a "loan restriction order" from the beginning, which is an attitude "declaration": real estate "de-financialization", and we are serious.
2020 is the most difficult 1 year for real estate in the last five years, and it may be the best 1 year in the future.
3. Which loan company has more news?
Hello, as long as it is a lending institution, there are many loan news. Which organization you pay attention to, the more news.
I hope the above answer is accepted. Thank you. What loan did you get?