At first, no one took the "Star Chain Project" seriously. After all, from the first satellite launch in 1957 to 20 15, it took 58 years to send 25,000 satellites into the sky.
Musk's mouth is 12000, accounting for half of all human satellites. According to conventional calculations, it is impossible for Musk to complete the "Star Chain Plan" within 20 years.
However, what we don't have is the terrible development speed of the "Star Chain Plan". During the period of 20 18 -20 19, three small-scale tests were carried out for the star chain project. In 2020, the star chain plan is on the right track, and 14 rockets will be launched throughout the year, with a single rocket carrying 60 satellites; 202 1, initiated 19 times; As of May this year, 14 launches have been completed in less than half a year, and the total number of launches this year is expected to exceed 30. Next year, Musk's plan is to launch once a week.
In just two and a half years, a total of 48 rockets were launched. The seemingly unreachable star chain project has deployed 265 1 satellite around the world! According to the current launch speed, all 12000 satellites will be launched in 2025.
Perhaps, even Musk did not expect that the plan would be so smooth. He quickly adjusted the number of satellites and further proposed to deploy 42,000 satellites around the world. The US Communications Commission has approved this request.
The photos he took showed that at night, Musk's satellite group was shining in a "one-word snake array" on a certain orbit, and it was connected end to end for dozens of kilometers, with high density and almost formed a straight line.
This is the horror of Musk. The outside world thinks that he is bragging, and he turns the bragging cows into reality again and again.
It is estimated that the height of the low-earth orbit (200 km-1300 km) occupied by the star chain plan can accommodate up to 60,000 satellites, and Musk intends to monopolize 42,000 satellites.
In the future, we will look up at the starry sky, and his satellite will fly over our heads all the time.
In the eyes of ordinary people, it takes at least 20 years to complete the plan, and Musk can complete it in 5 years. If we turn a blind eye to this, we may lose the ongoing space race.
What does Musk want to do by launching so many satellites? His own statement is to provide high-speed internet services to consumers around the world.
Take the broadband we are using now as an example. Most home broadband uses terrestrial optical fiber, which is buried underground and connected to every household.
Mobile wireless networks use base station signals, and base stations are subdivided into many types, including Hong Jizhan suitable for densely populated areas and micro-base stations suitable for sparsely populated areas.
Anyway, optical fiber and base station are built on the ground, which belongs to ground communication and is the mainstream form of broadband service today.
Musk's "Star Chain Project" is a space-based communication, which needs to establish a base station in the universe to provide broadband services directly to users around the world from space.
The advantage of this is to get rid of the limitation of terrain. We know that many remote areas are sparsely populated, the cost of laying optical fiber or building Hong Jizhan is too high, and the bandwidth of micro-base stations is limited, so the terrestrial broadband can't meet the demand.
The satellite link project perfectly solves this problem. I can fly in the sky and provide broadband services to the ground without restrictions.
At present, more than 2,600 satellite chains have launched broadband services in 32 countries, and 65,438+400,000 users have connected to the satellite chains. Users who use satellite link broadband need to spend $499 to buy a signal receiver and $99/month broadband fee. From this calculation, Musk can earn $69 million in broadband fees.
This part of the money is simply not enough to cover the cost of the star chain plan. It is understood that a star-chain satellite costs 500,000 US dollars, 60 satellites with one arrow, and it costs 65.438+0.5 billion US dollars to launch 3,000 satellites a year, and it costs 65.438+0.5 billion US dollars to launch a single rocket, which costs 520 million US dollars.
A total of * * * spend more than $2 billion a year, how to maintain the income of $69 million?
Some people say that Musk has financial support from Tesla. Sorry, Tesla and Space X are two independent companies and cannot support each other financially. The statement given by Musk is that through financing, the Star Chain plan will be split and listed as soon as this year.
But does the market really recognize this plan? It's hard to say. In terms of speed, the broadband delay of satellite link is 20 milliseconds, and the ground 5G delay is only 1 millisecond;
The total bandwidth of 42,000 satellites is 840,000 Gbps, and the standard of 5G speed is 1 Gbps, which means that the satellite link can only provide 5G speed service for 840,000 users at the same time. If we want to increase the number of users, the satellite link bandwidth must be reduced to 3G or 4 G.
Lv Tingjie, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, objectively commented: "The Star Chain project has no innovation in communication technology, and Musk is only in a relatively idle communication frequency band."
Will investors invest in a plan that lags behind 5G and has a limited number of service users? In any case, Musk's statement that "Star Chain is a business plan" is hard to justify.
Why does Musk insist on promoting the star chain plan that is difficult to make money in business? Because there is the support of the American government behind it.
Official supporters who can find public information are: Federal Communications Commission, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Air Force.
The Communications Commission subsidized the Star Chain by $886 million; Nasa is the largest financier of Space X, the parent company of star chain, and gives Space X hundreds of millions of dollars in business every year. The US Air Force even asked Star Chain to explore the possibility of providing network services for fighters.
The Star Chain program can support the US military in space and on the ground.
On the ground, 42,000 satellite chains can provide more accurate and fast global positioning services. Traditional GPS positioning belongs to high altitude positioning. The US military uses 24 satellites floating more than 20,000 kilometers away for positioning, with a civilian error of10m and a military error of10m.
After the satellite link is completed, it is easy to meet the existing military standards, and the GPS system does not have the function of broadband link. The bandwidth of the satellite link can enable the US military to truly meet the operational standards of integration and informationization.
In particular, it provides broadband support for US military aircraft. As we all know, the biggest difference between the fifth-generation fighter represented by F22 and the fourth-generation fighter is the high degree of informationization. A combat team consisting of five planes enjoys a data system and exchanges operational data.
For example, if the radar in front of the plane finds an enemy plane, teammates more than ten kilometers away will also get information, which is much more accurate than traditional radio communication.
Five F22 fighters can cover 1000 km of airspace, relying on information technology capabilities. The Star Chain Project can provide broadband support for US military fighters and transmit operational data in various fighters.
In space, the Star Chain project is a replica of the Star Wars project. In 1980s, President Reagan planned to launch 1700 satellites with missiles to intercept the enemy's strategic missiles from the air.
Generally speaking, after being launched from the ground, strategic missiles will fly in space for a certain distance and then enter the atmosphere to attack targets.
Traditional interception technology can only intercept missiles when they have just launched and re-entered the atmosphere, while missiles flying in space are almost invincible.
Star Wars plans to launch satellites into space with missiles, that is, to implement space interception, which constitutes the all-round interception capability of the US military.
It is said that the interception success rate is as high as 99.9%. Reagan proudly declared: "Once the Star Wars plan is successful, nuclear war can not only be fought, but also the US military will surely win!"
Later, the Star Wars program was cancelled because of the high cost and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Now, the Star Chain Project has given the Star Wars Project a second chance.
At that time, the important reason for the cancellation of the Star Wars program was that the cost of technology research and development and satellite launch was too high for Americans to afford. After 30 years of slow research and development, the US military has made great progress in space weapons, and it is no longer a problem for satellites to carry missiles.
The only problem facing the US military is launching satellites. The Pentagon has been complaining that the cost of launching NASA satellites is too high, and NASA can't say how hard it is. Their launch service provider is the famous Lockheed Martin company, the big brother of the military-industrial complex. The military-industrial complex consumes a lot of money every year, and a screw costs 2000 dollars. How many hundreds of millions are not allowed to charge for launching rockets?
The appearance of Space X broke the deadlock, and Musk successfully reduced the launch cost. A single launch costs only $6.5438+0 million, and a satellite costs only $500,000, which is much more expensive than Lockheed.
Last year, Musk also acquired the microsatellite company Swarm. The price of the satellite made by this company is only 1/400 of the current satellite system! The total cost of the 42,000-star chain project is only $30 billion.
The us military is very interested in this. Even if there are no armed missiles on the satellite chain now, it does not rule out that after the technology is fully mature in the future, the US military will let Musk install missiles on the satellite.
In addition, all existing satellite chains are equipped with thrusters and can move freely in orbit. If a space war breaks out in the future, Musk can command his own satellite group to take the initiative to attack other countries' satellites.
Last year, the satellite chain suddenly went out of control from the 500-kilometer orbit twice and rushed to the 300-kilometer space station in China. Fortunately, we took evasive actions in advance in our own space to avoid accidents.
Once happened by accident, twice? Musk has no explanation for this incident!
There is no need to harm people, and there is no need to prevent people. Perhaps, when Musk just proposed the Star Chain Plan, it was really to seize the market of space-based broadband and accumulate funds for the Mars immigration plan.
The Pentagon perceived military value from it and cooperated with Musk. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain why a unprofitable business project will have $8 billion in financing. Why is the launch of the star chain plan more and more frequent? Many things are good at first, but they change when they walk.
Author: You An Jiang Zuo
References:
Space Exploration Technology Company sent another 53 satellite chains and launched three batches of satellite chains in five days. Newspapers.
Interface news of "NASA is worried about the' star chain' project or causing' serious congestion' in low earth orbit"
"Challenge Space X" Star Chain Plan Amazon spends10 billion dollars to build satellite Internet "Financial Association
"Space Exploration Technology Company reached out to M&A for the first time: Can it solve the concern about the scale of the star chain by getting involved in the orbit of ultra-small satellites?" Youniu Finance "
Musk announced that the "Star Chain" Beta test is coming to an end, and future revenue is expected to exceed the rocket launch business "Niu Technology"
Space Exploration Technology Company has deployed nearly 600 "Star Chain" satellites in the United States, but there are five major limitations.
"Behind the deified Musk: This is worthy of vigilance" Hu Ling; Peking university law school
The Star Chain Project is to "occupy" the network of space observers.
"Star Chain Project" is the heart of Si Mazhao. How should we deal with it? "Gao Galen"