Graham, an investment guru, famously said that the bull market is the main reason for ordinary investors' losses.

There is a data in the newspaper:

From July, 20 14 to February, 20 15 (the last bull market), 85% investors with the lowest income lost more than 250 billion RMB, while during the period of 18, 0.5% households with the highest income gained as much as 254 billion RMB.

WG4 represents the richest investor group, and WG 1 represents the lowest investor group.

That is to say, compared with the initial equity wealth in June, 20 14, during the period of 18 months, the accumulated income generated by traffic made ordinary investors lose 28% of their funds, while the richest group gained 3 1% of their income.

Why is this happening?

Let's look at a set of data. Doumei counted the number of newly opened accounts, newly opened fund accounts and newly issued fund shares in A-share accounts since 2003, and added them to the Shanghai Composite Index for comparison.

We can find that there is an obvious positive correlation between the number of new accounts opened in A-shares and the rise and fall of the market. After the market rose sharply, there were two obvious account opening peaks, in 2007 and 20 15 years. As we all know, these are two famous bull markets in the history of A shares.

The bull market in 2007 began in 2005, starting at 1000, and all the way to the top of the earth at 6 124 in June 2007.

During this period, the number of new A-share accounts opened in June 2006 +065438+ 10 increased significantly, but the number of monthly accounts opened was only over 200,000. At this time, the Shanghai Composite Index has nearly tripled to nearly 3,000 points. After that, the number of new accounts increased sharply, reaching its peak in June 2007, and the number of new accounts opened every month was close to 2 million. At this time, the market has risen by 4000 points. Subsequently, after the Shanghai Composite Index began to decline at the highest point of 5438+065438+ 10 in June 2007, the number of newly opened accounts also began to drop sharply.

As can be seen from the changes in the number of newly opened accounts, in the initial bull market, when the number of 1000 points rose to more than twice that of 3,000 points, not many people followed, and most investors chased up by 3,4000 points. Such an obvious "inverted pyramid" jiacang operation can't escape the fate of standing guard at a high position.

In fact, the bull market in 2007 was not bad, after all, it lasted for more than two years, with a five-fold increase. In 20 15 years, the bull market only lasted 1 year, with an increase of more than 1.5 times. However, the number of new accounts opened during the period, whether it is the growth rate or the growth rate, far exceeds that of 2007. As a result, everyone knows …

Let's go back to Kangkang Ji Min's performance.

No matter how many new fund accounts are opened and how many new shares are issued, there is not much change before the bull market of 20 15. However, after the bull market began, it rose sharply with the rise of the market, and also fell sharply with the arrival of the stock market crash. In the matter of chasing up and killing down, the citizens and investors are a family that loves each other.

The phenomenon of "adding positions on the inverted pyramid" is obvious, which is the main reason for the losses of ordinary investors. At the beginning of the bull market at the bottom of the bear market, retail investors often have little money and try to buy; When the market starts to rise, it will chase up and add positions, and the investment cost is getting higher and higher. When the market rose to the top, retail investors were the most excited, with the heaviest positions, and their mentality changed from initial fear to greed.

At this time, once the bubble bursts and the big adjustment comes, it will cause huge losses. Not only will it exhaust the previous profits, but it will often lead to a greater loss of principal.

Looking back now, is it reasonable that "bull market is the main reason for ordinary investors' losses"?

Charles Munger added: On the other hand. Bear market is the main reason for ordinary investors to make money, and its wisdom deserves our deep consideration. ...

Bull market is the main reason for retail losses?

- 0 1 -

Bull markets are prone to frequent stock trading.

In the bear market, the performance of individual stocks is very dull. Everyone doesn't pay attention to stocks, so it's hard to lose money in the stock market.

But once the bull market came, the stock market boiled. Many stocks fluctuate greatly.

Often other stocks have soared. However, the stock I hold is still.

At this point, many people can't resist the impulse. Under the temptation of wealth, it is easy to see which stock has gone up and buy it.

This frequent stock exchange operation should be the main reason for the bull market to lose money.

The stocks in the bull market fluctuate greatly, and may go up today and plummet tomorrow.

It is often seen that a stock rises sharply, and it falls the next day after buying, and may fall for several days in a row.

At this time, when I saw other stocks rising, I quickly cut the meat and sold it, and put on new rising stocks.

As a result, the person who cut it went up and the person who chased it fell down.

If you change shares frequently in a bull market, the high probability is to become chopped leeks.

Bull markets often occur once every few years.

It is because the old leek has a memory, while the new leek has just grown up and has never experienced a bull market.

The fluctuation of the stock market is used to harvest new leeks.

If you don't want to be the leek harvested in the bull market.

The first point is to do it. Never change shares frequently in a bull market.

As long as the fundamentals of the stocks you choose are good, the plate rotation will always turn.

Be patient.

- 02 -

In a bull market, junk stocks are easily hyped.

In a bull market, junk stocks are easily hyped.

Because junk stocks are generally small and easy to be manipulated.

I often see the daily limit of some junk stocks.

In a short period of time, the stock price has doubled or even tripled.

This wealth effect makes some retail investors want to try their luck and think about making money and running away.

Maybe when you just rush in, you can make money for a while.

However, after making money, many people will not run away.

Will think that the stock price will continue to rise.

Or just ran away and the stock price went up again, so I rushed in to try my luck.

The decline of those junk stocks is always sudden.

Most people cannot escape from it in time.

Eventually lead to losses in the bull market.

The speculation of junk stocks is also an important reason for retail investors to lose money in the bull market.

The correct way is to never touch junk stocks from beginning to end.

- 03 -

In a bull market, it's easy to chase high.

In the later period of the bull market, the share prices of many stocks were very high.

There are many stocks with P/E ratio 100 times.

At this point, what should be done is to hold shares and wait and see.

Don't mobilize funds to enter the market again.

But some retail investors have the opposite investment strategy.

At the beginning of the bull market, there was not much investment.

On the contrary, in the late bull market, the stock price was high, but the investment was increased.

Even borrowing money is several times the initial investment.

This kind of chasing high behavior leads to the position cost being an inverted pyramid.

When the bull market ends, the bear market comes and the stock price falls, it will quickly penetrate the cost line of retail investors.

Leading to retail losses.

The correct approach should be to stop capital entry or even gradually reduce positions when the P/E ratio is generally high and the low-priced stocks have basically disappeared.

It may earn a little less, but no one can accurately throw it at the top of the bull market.

As long as you earn money within your cognitive range, that's enough.

Don't make the most money.

- 04 -

abstract

The A-share market has improved this year.

Attracted many friends to enter the stock market.

Maybe, we will meet a bull market.

But we should be more vigilant. The bull market may be the main reason for many friends' losses.

Even if it is a bull market, we should keep calm.

Do not exchange shares frequently, do not speculate in junk stocks, and do not chase high.