How much money does it cost to realize free retirement?
The National Bureau of Statistics announced the main data results of the seventh national census on May 11, 2021. Data show that the population aged 60 and above is 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70% (of which the population aged 65 and above is 190.64 million, accounting for 13.50%). Compared with 2010, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above increased by 5.44 percentage points. [1]
According to the traditional concept, raising children to prevent old age can really prevent old age. In the TV series "The Way of Heaven", Ding Yuanying expressed her views on raising children for old age when her father was ill and returned to his hometown. First, "If my reputation of filial piety is conditioned on my father's pain and dignity, I will not know that I am a filial piety." What's wrong?" This was Ding Yuanying's insistence. Secondly, "Mom, if you are raising a child just to protect yourself from old age, then let alone how great maternal love is. You are raising your child for yourself. It is an exchange. It's not the same thing. When you meet someone like me, If you are not filial, you will lose it." Third, "If you raise children for old age, your parents are your natural creditors, and this kind of relationship is higher than the mountains and deeper than the sea. What you always want is to repay your debts and repay your kindness. So this culture makes everyone. They can’t even stand up straight, and the more an old man feels that raising children is a way to protect him from old age, the easier it is to feel disadvantaged and the more miserable he feels.”
From the perspective of a strong person, it can be the same as Ding Yuanying’s point of view, but the reality is. Well, can raising children really prevent aging? The current situation seems to be the opposite. Raising children to eat up old age is more talked about today. As early as 2009, there was report data showing that there were as many as 165,100 "gnao old people" among Chinese university graduates. Most of them were forced to join the "gnao old people" because they could not find jobs. They believed that "gnaw old people" "Old" is caused by the contradiction between ideal and reality, and it is a helpless move.
However, today, more and more young people who originally had jobs are taking the initiative to resign and go home, joining the ranks of "cheating the old people". In a certain sense, it is changing from "passive nibbling on old age" to "active nibbling on old age". The study found that by 2025, 3.8 million young people aged 21 to 34 will live with their parents, which will be an increase of more than a third from the current number. The number of families with two or more "natives" living with their parents is also expected to increase from the current 1.5 million to 2.2 million. The above figures are based on the assumption that house prices will still grow at the same rate as in the past 10 years. [2]
By 2050, those born in the 1980s and 1990s will have reached retirement age. At that time, almost every young person will have to bear the expenses of an elderly person. But reality throws cold water on people. A survey on "gnawing on the elderly" found that the age group with the highest proportion of "gnawing on the elderly" is the young and middle-aged group between 28 and 38 years old. Among the respondents with a monthly income of more than 10,000 yuan, 40% still said they had been "gnawing at the elderly". In some cities, 65% of families have the problem of "gnawing at the elderly". The truth is so cruel. Don't expect your children to support you in old age. You are lucky enough not to be nibbled on.
So, no matter what, we cannot rely on the traditional "raising children to provide for old age".
Someone has done some calculations: Assume that Lao Zhang is 40 years old this year and is an ordinary on-the-job worker. His monthly income is 10,000 yuan and his annual income is 120,000 yuan, which is considered the salary of most workers. class income. According to the current retirement age, Lao Zhang retires at the age of 60. If he can live to the age of 80, from now on, for the next 40 years, Lao Zhang's average annual expenses will not exceed 60,000 yuan. When he reaches the retirement age of 60, he will need 1.2 million for retirement. Considering the inflation issue, if the annual inflation rate is 4%, Lao Zhang's living expenses will be 60,000 yuan when he is 40 years old, and he will need to spend 7.26 million yuan in 40 years. In the 20 years after retirement, he will need a capital reserve of 3.91 million yuan. . From the age of 40 to before retirement, Lao Zhang’s salary was RMB 120,000 * 20 years = 2.4 million. After retirement, the pension was half of the salary, that is, he received 5,000 yuan per month. Before his death at the age of 80, Lao Zhang could earn The pension received is 5000*12*20=1.2 million yuan. In other words, unless Lao Zhang gets promoted year after year or becomes rich overnight, there will be a gap of more than 2 million yuan in pension expenses. Of course, this does not take into account the losses that will result from delaying retirement.