I have been busy with work recently, and I have already resumed work on 2/3, because the external market does not take a break, and our domestic securities and futures will officially open on 2/3.

So during the recent period, whether it is investment or the automobile industry that I love, I still maintain a 120 degree of attention. I am now a bystander and strategic investor in the automobile manufacturing industry. , with a little bit of media personality, to see how the automobile manufacturing industry will be affected by the new coronavirus epidemic.

I can tell you the conclusion first, because I will share the research results of my own investment strategy team with you later.

The conclusion is that the automobile industry is suffering an unprecedented blow, and the impact of this epidemic will drag down the pace of the automobile industry (whether it is the manufacturing end or the aftermarket end) until around September this year. We are optimistic It is estimated that things will get better in September and cars will be easier to sell, but it cannot be said to have fully recovered. Because the epidemic has not only severely damaged the domestic production chain, the new crown has spread all over the world. It can even be said that we are about to reach EOP, while foreign countries are about to reach SOP.

All raw materials related to the automotive market: hot rolls, cold rolls, rubber, plastics, glass, etc., will be subject to unprecedented price suppression.

It is not recommended to be bullish on all automobile stocks, whether internal or external, and maintain a bearish logic before September this year.

In fact, many people refute me and say that the automobile industry will have a retaliatory rebound soon. I say there will be, but not immediately. There may be a rebound in automobile consumption as early as September. It is still cautious. Optimistic forecast.

You must know that from a macroeconomic perspective, this market is not limited to just your car. The total national productivity and total consumption power cannot be made up in these two lost months. In the past two months, the industrial chain has experienced a battle royale, leaving gaps everywhere. Some companies whose capital chains were broken went bankrupt without even being able to survive a retaliatory rebound. The macro-economy was like a train. In trains, the continuity of time nodes means that you cannot redeem your ticket after taking the station. You can also redeem it, but you need to pay a greater price (several times or even ten times) to save it. Just like the recent wave of large-scale water releases by the central bank, it finally rescued the stock market from opening at a low of 8, but what happens next? I won’t say much more, because retail investors (leeks) all told me that China’s economy has recovered and the bull market has arrived, haha.

Okay, let’s talk about the opportunities below. The purpose is to let friends who understand clearly grasp the real core points of the automobile industry during this economic recovery period and make investments. refer to.

Below I will post some of the new energy research reports of my company’s macro strategy team (of course I cannot post them all). The writing style may not be my writing style, it is all the research results of my employees:

Prospects and opportunities for new energy battery raw materials - nickel

1. China plays a key role in the future of electric vehicles in the world It plays a major role. Under the leadership of Tesla's first localization, almost all these European and American electric vehicle companies must go through China when producing vehicles. China has a complete new energy vehicle industry chain, which is unprecedented in any country in the world. Possessed.

As stated in the 2018 oil price report, "China indirectly controls the electric vehicle market through its near-monopoly in electric vehicle battery production." Two years ago, Oilprice magazine wrote: “European car production may soon shift so much to China that European markets should start to feel uneasy.” “This will have a significant impact on the region. Companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Renault have long been the economic backbone of the region."

At the time, the world was Two-thirds of lithium-ion battery supply originates from China. Lithium-ion batteries are the most commonly used battery in standard electric vehicles.

"Furthermore, these batteries are extremely valuable, accounting for an astonishing 40% of the value of a car. As it stands, Europe is nowhere near matching China's production of lithium-ion batteries. In fact, the entire African continent is currently estimated to only account for 1 market share. "It is easy for European car companies to move the production of electric vehicles to China." That is to say, in order to let It should come as no surprise that Elon Musk delivering on his promise to make electric vehicles affordable and attainable for the mass market and ordinary consumers will require China to get involved. The problem again comes down to the battery. This time, however, the problem is not lithium but cobalt.

According to Reuters, “Electric vehicle manufacturers usually use nickel-cobalt-aluminum batteries (NCA) or nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries (NMC) in passenger cars because of their higher energy density, which is good for "Cobalt is one of the main reasons why electric car batteries are so expensive, accounting for 40% of the car's value," he said.

Tesla has moved most of their production to China, and it is at one of the company's Chinese factories that they are gradually weaning themselves off cobalt. Reuters reported this week that "Tesla is in advanced stages of talks to use cobalt-free CATL batteries in cars produced at its factories in China. Cobalt is one of the most expensive metals used in electric vehicle batteries." Instead, the plant will use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which will be "'double digits' cheaper than existing batteries."

Tesla stock price

The future opportunity lies not in expensive cobalt, but in nickel. All automotive battery raw materials are inseparable from nickel, and even most battery manufacturing in the future Manufacturers will increase the amount of nickel and reduce the amount of cobalt when manufacturing batteries.

2. Like platinum and palladium, nickel can absorb a large amount of hydrogen during passivation. The smaller the particle size, the greater the absorption! The important salts of nickel are nickel sulfate and nickel chloride. Similar to iron and cobalt, it is stable to water and air at room temperature and can resist alkaline corrosion. Therefore, nickel crucibles can be used to melt alkaline substances in the laboratory. Nickel is soluble in dilute acid. Unlike iron, cobalt and nickel react violently with concentrated nitric acid and react slowly with dilute nitric acid.

Well-known domestic enterprises: CICC Lingnan, Taigang Stainless Steel, China Nickel Resources, Guiyan Platinum, GEM, Corun, Jinchuan Group, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals Industry (Group) Fukang Smelter, Xinjiang Xinxin, Jiangli Technology, Hanking Group, etc.

Well-known foreign companies: Russia's Norilsk Nickel (MMCNorilsk Nickel), Brazil's Vale SA (ValeSA), Britain's Xstrata Plc, Anglo American Plc , Australia's BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia's Minara Resources Ltd., Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., France's Eramet SA, Canada's Sherritt International Corp.

3. Nickel has good plasticity, corrosion resistance and magnetic properties! Therefore, it is mainly used in the fields of steel, nickel-based alloys, electroplating and batteries, and is widely used in various military manufacturing industries such as aircraft and radar, civil machinery manufacturing and electroplating industries.

Specific uses include:

1. Because nickel has good corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, rust resistance and other properties! Therefore, it is widely used in steel fields such as stainless steel and alloy steel. Nickel consumption is the largest in stainless steel applications. Nickel-containing stainless steel can not only resist corrosion from the atmosphere, steam and water, but also resist corrosion from acids, alkalis and salts.

2. The participation of nickel can improve the strength of the alloy and maintain its good plasticity and toughness. Nickel-containing alloy steel is mainly used in the manufacture of acid-resistant towers in chemical production, medical equipment, daily necessities, and in machinery manufacturing, transportation and military industries such as bridge renovation and warship construction.

3. Used for electroplating, covering the base of steel and other metal materials with a durable, corrosion-resistant surface layer, which has higher anti-corrosion properties than galvanized layers. The processing volume of electroplating nickel ranks second after zinc electroplating, and its consumption accounts for about 10% of the total nickel production.

4. Used as chemical power source and raw material for making nickel-metal hydride batteries and nickel-cadmium batteries. The world's nickel-metal hydride batteries are mainly produced by Chinese and Japanese companies, accounting for more than 95% of global output, of which more than 70% are produced in China. Chinese nickel-metal hydride battery companies mainly include Speedmaster, Highpower, BYD, Huanyu, Corun, and Lixing. , Sanpu, Dickson, Sanjie, Liangneng, Grepu, etc. Japanese companies Panasonic, Yuasa, and Sanyo have transferred the production of small nickel-metal hydride batteries to China. Large nickel-metal hydride batteries for HEVs are mainly produced in Japan. The main manufacturers are Primearth Electric Vehicle Energy Company (PEVE) and Sanyo Electric. Due to the merger of Panasonic and Sanyo, Panasonic's Hunan factory was sold to China's Corun. Therefore, large nickel-metal hydride batteries have been mainly produced by Panasonic.

5. Nickel composite materials can be used as catalysts in petrochemical hydrogenation and methane synthesis. The advantage is that they are not easily poisoned by H2S and S02. Nickel compounds can be used to make pigments and dyes. Nickel can also be made into new ceramics such as nickel ferrite and nickel-zinc ferrite, which can be used as the core of transformers and antennas of radios. Very fine nickel powder is often used as a catalyst in the chemical industry. Nickel is magnetic and is attracted to magnets. An alloy made of aluminum, cobalt and nickel can be used to make electromagnetic cranes.

4. Nickel is a basic component of batteries, including batteries installed in mobile phones, laptops and hybrid cars. Based on the market's optimistic prospects for the long-term battery market, many large mining companies have now joined the ranks of resource competition.

BHP Billiton (BHP) continues to retain its Nickel West nickel mine project in Western Australia, believing that Nickel West shows potential for high returns. Glencore also mines nickel and produces metal by-products. As a major nickel mining country, Indonesia has become the focus of many mining companies. Indonesia ranked first in the world in nickel production last year. Pacific? Rim? Cobalt? Corporation is currently conducting exploration projects in Indonesia and actively developing Indonesia's nickel ore resources. Indonesia and China are not far apart, and as China currently dominates the electric vehicle market, neighboring countries are eager to provide necessary raw materials for China's electric vehicle industry. Indonesia is naturally unwilling to miss this opportunity. In fact, Indonesia's goal is not just to become a resource base. Indonesian Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto proposed to build Indonesia into a regional manufacturing powerhouse and transform the country's raw materials into consumer goods. This move may provide opportunities for mining companies that have already begun to explore the Indonesian market.

Since nickel ore was heavily speculated by internal and external funds in 2019, it has finally entered a reasonable value range, and I think the price is not very high, and there is not much room for downwards.

Based on some materials from my own team’s commodity and industry macro research reports, I can give a perspective on buying nickel (Shanghai Nickel Contract, London LME Nickel Contract) commodities for medium and long-term investment. In the recovery period of several months after this, new energy vehicles will explode into a second spring and occupy a major position in future automobile development.

London LME Nickel Index

Finally, a few words to friends from all walks of life who are suffering from the epidemic recently:

Maybe your own economy You are under serious threat. You may have nothing in this epidemic, but please find a direction suitable for your rebound in a desperate situation. Nietzsche has a famous saying: "What doesn't kill me will only make me stronger." Just like our human bones It will become stronger under weight and pressure. This is a kind of "antifragility"! How to survive in this black swan and find traces of spring in the cold winter, you can refer to the above suggestions and opinions.

This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.