We like to say “anything is possible”! For example, our country may become number one in the world in the future. But many things are impossible no matter what, such as the sun rising from the west.

It is impossible for Dandong to become the next Shenzhen!

Dandong, part of Liaoning Province, is located on the border between my country and Beibang, across the Yalu River from Sinuiju in Beibang. It is the northern starting point of my country’s coastline. It is a national-level border cooperation zone and a national key development and opening test along the border. District and coastal open city, it is my country's largest port city for trade with Beibang and a national franchised tourist city for Beibang. It is the only city in Asia that has border ports, airports, high-speed rails, river ports, seaports, and highways at the regional level. Circulation node city.

Why can’t such a place with the right time and location become the next Shenzhen? Jingye Shi believes that there are the following reasons:

1. Ineffective policies

George Orwell has a famous saying in "Animal Farm": "All animals are created equal, but some animals are more powerful than others." Other animals are more equal."

Dandong and Shenzhen are both coastal cities. They both benefited from policy advantages during the reform and opening up, but it is obvious that Shenzhen received more policy favors.

In 1980, it was a spring, and an old man drew a circle on the South China Sea in my country. . . It is this circle that made Shenzhen my country's earliest special economic zone and a window city for my country's opening up to the outside world.

Because Shenzhen has such an important historical mission, it can be said that Shenzhen has risen rapidly with the help of the whole country and has become another first-tier city in my country after Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou!

While Shenzhen is developing rapidly, Dandong is dozing off.

Like Guangxi, Dandong, as a border city, has never had a stable development environment due to the deterioration of relations with neighboring countries. Especially after 1992, my country established diplomatic relations with South Korea, and relations between my country and its neighboring countries became cold again.

Therefore, Dandong started relatively late.

Shenzhen is a special economic zone in my country, a city under independent planning, and a sub-provincial city. Dandong is an ordinary prefecture-level city in Liaoning Province.

The level of the city means different inclinations of national policies. While Shenzhen can enjoy the advantages of provincial-level or even national-level policies, Dandong can only follow the overall plan of Liaoning Province.

Although Dandong is one of the 14 national border economic cooperation zones, it started much later than Shenzhen, so it is naturally difficult to gain a first-mover advantage.

Therefore, based on the development of the two existing cities, Dandong can only gradually narrow the gap with Shenzhen unless it receives more policy support than Shenzhen.

But what can Dandong do to win more policy preferences?

2. The hinterland is relatively poor

In previous articles, Jingyeshi has conducted a comparative analysis of the development prospects of many cities and concluded that:

< p>According to "geographical determinism", under the existing urban development model, urban development requires a certain area of ??economic hinterland, and the size and development level of the economic hinterland directly determine the development scale and development prospects of the central city.

If we look specifically at Dandong and Shenzhen, we can see how big the gap between the economic hinterlands of Dandong and Shenzhen is.

Shenzhen is backed by the Pearl River Delta, which is the most active region in my country's economic development. In the Pearl River Delta, there are economically strong cities such as Guangzhou and Dongguan. Because of the existence of the Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province, which Shenzhen relies on, It is the most economically powerful province in my country.

Although the area around Dandong is backed by the Central South Liaoning Industrial Zone, due to its relatively remote location and long distance from the core of the Central South Liaoning Industrial Zone, the industrial zone has less impact on Dandong.

Unlike the Pearl River Delta, the Central South Industrial Zone in Liaoning is a typical heavy industry base. The development of heavy industry requires a large amount of investment and construction, and the liquidity is small. This determines that even if Dandong wants to borrow from the Central South Industrial Zone in Liaoning , and cannot get what they want.

In contrast, Shenzhen can use its policy advantages to attract a large amount of capital and help Shenzhen's economy take off rapidly.

As the first region to develop in my country after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Northeast Industrial Base is a typical development environment dominated by heavy industry. This development environment determines that all resources are basically concentrated in large state-owned enterprises in big cities. As an economic hinterland, this has little impact on Dandong's promotion.

In contrast, the Guangdong and Guangxi regions far exceed those of the Northeast in terms of total economic volume and economic activity. Therefore, the development prospects of Shenzhen must be much better than that of Dandong!

In the short term, it is almost impossible for Dandong to surpass Shenzhen!

3. The location is not advantageous

The main reason why Shenzhen can become a window for reform and opening up is that the other side of the Shenzhen River is Hong Kong.

As the closest place to Hong Kong, Shenzhen has a more important demonstration effect and window effect, so Shenzhen is developing with almost all the efforts of the country.

Although there is a Yalu River on the other side of the Yalu River where Dandong is located, the other side is not the once prosperous Pearl of the Orient, but the North Stick of the planned economy.

Although before the 1980s, Beibang's economy was once ahead of Nanbang's, since the reform and opening up, Beibang's economy has been rapidly overtaken, and the gap between Dandong and Beibang has quickly widened. It is basically impossible for Dandong to rely on its economic ties with Beibang to strengthen itself! In addition, the relationship between my country and its neighboring countries has been hot and cold, which has increased the variables in Dandong's development.

This is where Dandong is inferior to Shenzhen, and this situation will not change in the next few decades.

In addition, in my country's economic structure, generally coastal areas are more developed than inland areas, and the south is more economically developed than the north. Dandong is located at the northernmost end of my country's coastal areas, and is in a larger environment than Shenzhen, which is located in the south. There is a gap below!

The climate in Northeast China is relatively cold, so population outflow is serious. Therefore, Dandong’s population is much smaller than that of Shenzhen. A small population means a small market and small potential. On the contrary, because of its suitable climate, Shenzhen continues to attract outsiders and has made great contributions to Shenzhen's development.

As one of the seaports of Northeast China, the development of Dandong indirectly reflects the development prospects of the Northeast region. Although it is imperative to "revitalize the Northeast", under the current environment, the development of Dandong still exists. There are many shortcomings.

In the foreseeable future, Dandong will not be able to surpass Shenzhen!

I hope Dandong will develop better and better based on the present!