If I have to explain why ordinary investors lose more than they win in one sentence, one of the important reasons is: human nature makes it!
To put it more comprehensively, it is these unchangeable human natures-risk aversion, desire to get rich, self-righteousness, drifting with the tide, ruthlessness and indulging in revenge-that make it difficult for investors to escape the trap of the stock market. To put it simply, the mentality of being greedy for small profits and not eating small losses makes ordinary investors almost inevitably become losers!
As the saying goes, there are only three ways to make money: by hand, by brain and by money. What you earn with your hands is hard money, and what you earn with your brain is a master. The real money is Qian Shengqian. Qian Shengqian, how attractive it sounds. Who doesn't want to make money with money? However, Qian Shengqian's prerequisite is that you must have money, and the other is that you have the knowledge to make money with this money. The stock market provides such an excellent opportunity.
So who can survive in the stock market?
Personally, most so-called smart people fail for about two reasons:
1 The skill of stock trading is too alive; Too smart, too many choices! There is technology in stock trading. Jules, a famous American speculator in the 20th century, famously said, "The stock market is a place where experienced people get a lot of money and rich people get a lot of experience." The traditional stock trading technology comes from the accumulation of experience, which is difficult and painful. Lazy, unwilling to think, pointing to get rich quickly, there is no room for survival in this business.
Stocks are full of temptations: what is a stock? Represents a part of listed companies. The birth of a stock depends on the assets of the enterprise it represents. But once the stock was born and separated from the matrix, he had his own statement and no longer relied entirely on the matrix.
Let's make an analogy: the current price of a sow is 100 yuan, which should be 1 yuan for each share. This problem, which can't be miscalculated by primary school students, will go out of shape in the stock market. Suppose this sow is registered as a herd of pigs, with a hairstyle of 100 shares. What do you think is the share value of the pigs? If these stocks are listed, at what price do you think the shares of Pig Group will be traded?
In fact, we all know that the answer is that we can trade at the price of 10 cents per share, because investors will think that sows will die old! But it is also possible to trade at a price of several hundred yuan per share, because they will imagine that sows can give birth to 10 piglets every year, and piglets will give birth to piglets when they grow up. The real financial resources are endless! As long as Sister-in-law Zhang, the sow, that is, Chairman Zhang of the pig group, can convince investors that the sow is extremely fertile and her management ability is extremely high, it is not surprising that the stock of the pig group has been fired to several thousand yuan.
There is no doubt that the company introduction of the pig group will not say that the assets of the group are only a sow, but he will tell shareholders that the group is engaged in challenging businesses such as "private trading and breeding improved varieties". In fact, in the stock market operation, you will always face the choice of action!
The stock market is like an endless gambling game. It has no beginning and no end. The stock is always moving. As long as someone buys a stock at a price higher than the final transaction price, the stock price will go up a little. On the contrary, some people are willing to sell shares at the last traded farmland price, and the share price will fall a little. Up and down are like waves, with no beginning or end in sight.
Go to the casino to gamble. You know when the bet will start, because the dealer will tell you it's time to bet. You will also know when the bet will end. Once all the cards are turned over, the bet is over. You know exactly how much you will lose if you lose and how much you will win if you win.
When you bet on the stock market, you are directly faced with the decision of when to enter, when to wait and when to exit. No one tells you when to enter, and no one tells you when to leave. All decisions must be made by yourself. Every decision is so difficult and there are no rules. You don't know how much you will win by staying here. How much will you lose? The amount of the bet must also be decided by you. All these decisions are daunting! Isn't it? You decided to enter the market. Fortunately, you made a profit, and the stock price went up.
You immediately face a question: Is that enough? How do you know that the stock price will not fluctuate higher and higher? Unfortunately, the stock price fell below your purchase price, and you also faced a question: how much did you lose? What's more, you don't know if it will fall temporarily, but it will rebound soon. If it is possible to wait until the final victory, why admit defeat now? In the "permanent" gambling game of the stock market, you are faced with these decisions all the time!
More importantly, these choices in the stock market are not just a brain teaser, but must take certain actions to control the fate of your investment. If you don't take action, your bet will always be on the table. And the word "action" is such a disgusting word for lazy people! Ask yourself, do you like making decisions? Do you like to take full responsibility for your decisions alone? For 99% of people, the answer isno. Long-term gambling in the stock market requires you to make rational decisions at all times and take full responsibility for the results of the decisions! This eliminated most investors because they could not bear such psychological pressure for a long time!
This ever-changing stock market also has a fatal feature: it can make you lose much more money than expected! Because you do nothing, it may increase your loss. At the gambling table, you can lose at most once in each game. You knew you would lose this number before you bet. Unless you bet again next time, your loss will not exceed this amount. In the stock market, he accepts some of your bets, giving more, giving more and sometimes giving less. What do you suggest we do?
Let's talk specifically about the human characteristics of the failure of ordinary shareholders.
Let's do two experiments and make a choice:
175% chance to get 1000 yuan, but 25% chance to get nothing; What must 700 yuan choose?
Seeing that investors made small profits and the stocks they bought rose a little, we couldn't wait to get rid of the stocks. This stock may have a 75% chance to continue to rise, but would rather earn less. Avoid the possibility that 25% will get nothing. As a result, there may be a chance of 5000 profits, and you only get 500 yuan. Anyone who exceeds the stock price knows how difficult it is to re-enter the market at a price higher than the opening price. The stock price is getting higher every day, so you can only be a bystander. Once the stock you buy falls, investors become stubborn and refuse to stop, imagining various reasons to convince themselves that the decline is only temporary. The real reason is only for a 25% chance of getting away with it! As a result, xiaokuo gradually accumulated into a big loss! If there are only two ways to move stocks, then the profit and loss opportunity format of each stock purchase is equal to 50%. For ordinary investors, because of the human nature of being greedy for cheap and not eating small losses, they win small money and lose losses in the stock market, and they become a game with unequal chances of winning or losing. The actual stock market didn't beat you, you beat yourself!
The second reason why retail investors lose money is that they are too eager to get rich! Entering the market with the heart of "making a lot of money", your bet will be great, so you can start collecting as much information as possible that is beneficial to you and ignore the news that is unfavorable to you. If you unfortunately start to lose money, it is extremely difficult to accept the reality of "losing a lot of money". As the losses increase, your normal judgment gradually disappears. Until one day you finally can't bear too much loss, cut your wrists and cut your meat! You have suffered a huge loss that would not happen under normal circumstances!
As we all know, stock prices are always going up and down. At the end of the day, the stock closes at a certain price. Have you ever thought about what it stands for? He represents the recognition of stock market participants at today's close! Any transaction can be completed as long as one person is willing to sell and one person is willing to buy at a specific price, and the price is fixed. Whether they are as ignorant and stupid as you think, it is a fact that they trade at a certain price, and you can't refute the fact. Unless you have enough money to crush all those who disagree with you in the stock market, you can always decide the price of the stock according to your own.
Otherwise, please remember: your imagination, your judgment and your analysis can't move the stock price by a penny! No matter what scientific analysis your judgment on individual stocks is based on, if most participants disagree with you, the stock price will move with the will of most people!
In the stock market, the traditional right and wrong here does not exist or is meaningless! No matter how high your IQ is, what degree you have and how respected you are, your views on the stock market have no weight in other fields. The stock price is the stock price. No matter how much you think the stock is worth, no matter how out of line with the valuation, the stock price is always right. Therefore, don't be too self-righteous, don't be too confident in your analysis, carefully observe the stock market, and quickly admit your mistakes when you are wrong. If that's enough, your chances of survival in this business are not great! So, don't be self-righteous in the stock market! This is not allowed!
As an individual investor, you have to decide the time of admission, shareholding and appearance. The stock market is like an ocean, which never stops, has no beginning and no end, and the trend of each wave is unpredictable. Although it has high tide and low tide, there are backward waves at high tide and forward waves at low tide.
In a word, the stock market has no established operating rules, and you must establish your own rules in order to achieve the goal of profit. Otherwise, too much may make you feel at a loss, and the result is unimaginable.
The psychological difficulty is that you have to make your own rules and take full responsibility for the consequences of these rules. This is a great responsibility! Taking responsibility is what most people fear. It's not hard to see what is happening around you. If there is any mistake, Zhang San blames Li Si, and Li Si blames Wang Wu. And the stock market is so easy to make mistakes! However, in real life, investors often naturally choose to "follow the leader".
These "leaders" may be masters who shave their heads next door or tailors upstairs, mostly because they have been speculating in stocks for several years and made money. So retail investors can easily go beyond the decision-making bar. If the decision fails, they also have a scapegoat: "The tailor upstairs is really bad!" " This is even the result of the so-called "people like to follow the trend" and its regularity. Guys, have you ever had this phenomenon?
I made money in the stock market last time. I don't know why, but what should I do next time to make money again. If you lose money, you don't know why. What should you do next time to prevent the loss from happening again? This will inevitably produce extremely heavy psychological pressure, indescribable anxiety, expectation and fear.
Have you ever been out of control in the ocean of the stock market, drifting aimlessly, not knowing where to stand next? The only way to solve this problem is to learn by yourself, don't follow suit, don't follow suit, and must establish a set of systematic operating rules. After more than ten years of hard work, people have established the operating rules of "signal-only theory, rational investment and long-term survival"! Whether you admit it or not, at least this is a complete rule that can be systematized!
At the same time, the stock market has its own laws and characteristics. He won't repeat himself completely. Last year, the stock was operated in this way, and there will never be the same fluctuation this year. But these deja vu feelings make you feel like jumping into the ocean, losing your direction, feeling small, lonely and helpless.
Every time we have to face the unknown and questions, how many people can bear such suffering for a long time? Remember, people like the familiar environment, but they don't like the unfamiliar environment, but the stock market will never simply repeat itself, so don't stick to the old ways. This is not allowed!
Have you ever had such a phenomenon in the stock market? The stock you bought has fallen, so you should buy more. Because the price you bought the second time was lower than last time, the average purchase price was lower. Psychologically, your mentality is the same as that of gamblers who lose money in casinos. If you lose one hand, you will double the bet in the next hand, lose again and double it again. I hope to win in one hand, and then earn interest and interest back.
On the one hand, you can't afford to lose, on the other hand, you are retaliating against the stock market and making you lose money. I hope that because of the low average purchase price, a small rebound in stocks will give you a chance to get away with it. In fact, I want to say that this mentality is extremely harmful! There is usually a reason for a stock to fall, and the stock that often falls will fall lower and lower. If you sink in like this, you will sink deeper and deeper until your heart can't bear it. So, don't retaliate against the stock market. You can't get back at the stock market. You should strictly operate the trend. If the trend breaks, it will break. There is no room for discussion!
Everyone knows that there is Thanksgiving Day in America, also called Turkey Day. In memory of the first Indian who brought a hungry Englishman from Europe to North America with a turkey. Wild turkeys are abundant in America. There used to be a way to catch turkeys in North America, and we used it when we were young: the hunter put a cage in the wilderness, and the door was rolled up. The hunter paved the road with corn first, and let the turkey naturally run into the cage along the road of corn Pucheng. Usually there is more corn in the cage, and the turkey will not run out immediately after entering the cage. Once there are enough turkeys in the cage, the hunter will trigger the mechanism and put down the cage door, and the turkeys will be locked in the cage.
There is a true story:
A hunter went to check his cage in the morning and found 12 turkeys in the cage. 1 turkey slipped out of the cage before he put down the cage door. "Hey, shake hands slowly. Let me wait and see if the turkey will run back to the cage by itself. " When he opened the cage door and waited for the turkey to come back, two more turkeys ran out. "Hell, 1 1 turkey is good enough. How can I let those two turkeys get away? Now as long as the three turkeys that have gone out come back 1, I will close the door. " Soon, three more turkeys proudly left the cage, and then three more! When there was only one turkey left in the cage, the hunter got angry: "Either 1 No, but if one comes back, I will close the cage and take two turkeys home." Finally, the hunter returned empty-handed! This story was witnessed by Mr Kelly and written into his pamphlet "Speculative Psychology".
Shareholders who have some experience in stock trading will probably smile when they see this story! They are familiar with this psychological process, and everyone will go through this process when trading stocks! 20 yuan bought a good stock and set a stop loss of 18 yuan. Did you ever think about waiting when the stock fell to 18 yuan? Maybe the stock will rebound soon! The stock fell again 16 yuan. Will you pat your skull and say, "It's time to follow the established rules! 18 yuan will go; Now if the stock rebounds by 50 cents, I will definitely say goodbye! " The stock has fallen to 10 yuan. what are you going to do？ Will you grow hair? Will you make a determined effort: "I'll fight this time!" If you don't leave now, where do I see your lowest point? "
Frankly speaking, except for your own belief in winning, almost everything else is against your success in the stock market, even your relatives and friends! The stock market may be generous at first, but as time goes on, you will understand how vicious it is to ask you for debt.
Remember, you are fighting a giant, you can't fight recklessly! You should learn skills and never confront him head-on. You should know the giant, be familiar with his habits and attack him at the right time. Only in this way can you have a chance to win! The giants in the stock market are very clumsy. As an independent investor, you are smart. Once you find that your attack is invalid, you must flee and beware of the giant's revenge! People's weakness is indecision, and taking chances will hurt you a lot. At this time, you need more rationality. Signal-only theory is a topic pursued by scholars. Only rational investment can truly succeed in this ancient industry! This is the end of today's lecture. Finally, I wish you all a smooth investment!
Summarize human weaknesses:
1, hedging;
2, the heart of getting rich is too urgent;
3. Self-righteous;
4. Be good at following suit;
5. Follow the old rules;
6, good revenge;
7, hesitant, lucky!
If you want to truly become an independent investor, you must change the above seven items!