if you think deeply, you will be suddenly enlightened. The so-called "people who have no long-term worries must have near worries" should mean that the problems (worries) they are facing now are caused by the thoughtless actions before; Similarly, if today's actions are not well thought out for a long time, they will inevitably face bitter consequences in the future. Therefore, this sentence not only reminds people to be "foresight", but also points out an important point: everything must be "self-inflicted", which is an important cognition that everyone should have.
So, to re-appreciate the saying, "A man who has no long-term worries must have near worries", we should not only be wary of ourselves, but also think deeply about today's things. Can't we gain anything other than "silently bear" the sorrow caused by yesterday's actions?
that's not the case. Since today's sorrow was caused by yesterday, we should trace it back. What related decisions and actions in the past were not enough for GAI to cause today's bitter fruit? If you start over, what mistakes can be avoided? Then, we can know and understand the relationship between cause and effect of these things. After re-reviewing, we will not only learn lessons and experience, but also strengthen our understanding of the related effects of things and increase our "decision-making ability." As the saying goes, "You don't gain wisdom without adding one thing", that's what it means.
On the contrary, if we don't know the "causality" of the things we have experienced by tracing back to the source, then the past mistakes will not only pay the price today, but also continue to make the same mistakes in the future because we don't deeply understand the lessons, and we can't find out the reasons, which is called "ignorance of reflection".
The external environment is changing rapidly. In the face of various problems, we should not only trace the source of the problem, but also consider factors such as trends and possible changes to make the most GAI decision. Besides, we also need to have a cognition that the changes of external things are not entirely within the control of individuals. Therefore, while "foresight", we must always remind ourselves not to be too conceited, but to be wary of fear and always have a sense of crisis. Of course, having a sense of crisis does not mean being conservative and retreating, but having an ambition. With a positive but prudent attitude, we can make the least mistakes and accumulate the greatest achievements.
If a man has no long-term worries, he will have near-term worries.
It is a complex sentence with a hypothetical relationship, which can be explained as follows: If a man does not consider the long-term, then worries will surely appear in the near future. It means that people should be far-sighted and think long-term. In fact, this is a prepositional object sentence, which can be changed as follows: "If people are not worried about the distance, they will be worried about the near".
this is a famous saying of Confucius. Wei Linggong, the Analects of Confucius: "Confucius said: People who have no long-term worries must have near worries." "The Analects of Justice" explains: "If you worry about it not far away, your worries will come, so it is called near worries." "Xunzi's Outline" says: "Think about things first, worry about suffering first. Take care of things first, and then you can succeed. If you worry about suffering first, you will be prepared, and if you are prepared, you will not be born. Those who worry about things later are called sleepy, and when they are sleepy, there is no defense. " However, people should be far-sighted and calendar is valued by Confucianism.
There are two meanings. One is that even if people have no eyes and can't see the long-term hidden dangers, they can at least see the immediate disasters. Don't once mean: if you don't know how to plan long-term, then there will be problems in the short term.
The phrase "A man who has no long-term worries must have near worries" comes from The Analects of Confucius and Wei Linggong, which was said by Kong Qiu. It has only one meaning: if you don't have a long-term plan, you will soon be in trouble.
quite reasonable
* Prepare for tomorrow *
I met James at a reception. As the representative of an American multinational company in China, I am fully responsible for the company's business in China. I wanted to interview him, and he accepted and booked the time. The interview went well. At the end of the interview, I asked him what his company's future plans were as usual. I thought he would say something like "look forward to the future and achieve the goal" like some entrepreneurs interviewed before. Unexpectedly, he carefully took out a company development plan for the next 15 years from the filing cabinet.
This plan was made three years ago. It analyzes and forecasts the global market environment and development trend from 1995 to 21, including the industrial situation and competition situation, the current product positioning of enterprises, the future development direction of existing tasks, what new growth points to expand, and how to establish a perfect organization and enterprise mechanism for future development. It is as thick as a university textbook. I can't help but think of the domestic entrepreneurs I interviewed before. They also have plans, but they are too grand and abstract, and they lack detailed and practical methods and analysis data, such as catching up with the first class, entering the top 5, and ranking among the world's advanced ranks. And the longest time is only five years. It's too far away to be like them until 21! Who would have thought what it would be like then!
James probably saw the doubts in my eyes, and said anxiously, "During my six years in the United States and in China, I have come into contact with some entrepreneurs from the mainland of China. They have the same feature, that is, every time I visit a project, I always ask how long it will take to receive a return. Of course, it is necessary to pay attention to returns, and we should also consider them first. But the difference is that we have to make a short-term plan for at least five years, a medium-term plan for 1-15 years, and a long-term plan for more than 3 years. I am very surprised that you entrepreneurs in China usually only make short-term plans for one year, three years, and no longer than five years. How is that possible? Enterprises, like people, are a living organism with a cumulative development process. A person has to study and accumulate for more than 2 years, and he can be more competent for a job until he is 3 years old. How can he ask the enterprise to be brilliant at the age of one? "
"But I think the speed of success is the same as that of extinction." As he spoke, James smiled and pointed at the newspaper on the table. "Do not believe us to make a bet to see if these entrepreneurs who have been publicized can still exist in 1 years."
I stick out my tongue and shake my head again and again. I dare not make this bet. Not to mention 1 years, most of the enterprises I interviewed five years ago now exist in name only. Who can guarantee that they will still be alive in 1 years?
James smiled generously: "Rome was not built in a day. But the responsibility is not entirely on them. In your own words, it is a system problem. Ok, don't talk about them, tell me about yourself, what is your development plan? "
"I ..." My face turned red. James seemed more surprised than me, and made a gesture: "Why don't you have a life plan that will benefit you ten years later?" Then how do you do things every day? "
I said with shame, "Do whatever matters. I am not idle all day, busy. "
James stared at me for a while and said seriously, "Lin, I regard you as a friend, so I want to say something to you as a friend. Remember, there are many things to do in life, but in summary, there are only two kinds: one is urgent and the other is important. Many people are unsuccessful because they spend most of their time and energy on the urgent things in front of them and have no time to do the important things. I think the right thing to do is to spend 2% of my time dealing with the urgent things at hand, and leave 8% of my time for the future to do things that are unprofitable for the time being but will be important in the future. That's what I did, and I hope you will do the same. Make a 1-year plan for yourself. Otherwise, you may not be able to pay the bill then! "
-Enlightenment from the study of famine history
Human beings live and multiply on the earth, and nature provides all kinds of necessary conditions for human survival and development. At the same time, there is also another side of the disaster. In particular, human beings' excessive demand for nature and wanton destruction of the ecological environment have greatly strengthened the destructive role of natural forces. In a sense, natural disasters are a kind of revenge and punishment for human destruction of natural ecology. Unfortunately, after the natural disasters, people often forget the pain, and the phenomenon of wanton destruction of the ecological environment for temporary and local interests is still everywhere. One of the tasks of historians is to arouse people's historical memory from time to time, hoping that everyone will not forget the experience and lessons of history. —— Li Wenhai (excerpted from the preface of "The History of Catastrophes in China in the 2th Century")
Since this issue, this newspaper has successively published a series of articles by Mr. Xia Fangming from the Qing History Institute of China Renmin University on the study of the history of disasters in China. Please pay attention to the reader.
From "famine" to "disaster"
As Mr. Deng Tuo said, during the more than 4, years since China's own documents were recorded, "there were almost no years without disasters, and there were almost no years without famine", so that modern western European scholars called it "the country of famine" directly. After the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of economic construction, the rapid development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of the disaster relief system, we finally broke the iron law of "every disaster will be famine" that has lasted for thousands of years and got rid of the terrible shadow of famine. This is indeed a great achievement worthy of the pride and pride of every descendant of the Chinese nation.
however, for a long time, our economic construction has largely been at the expense of the resources and environment on which human beings depend. As a result, it has not only brought a lot of material wealth, but also further aggravated the contradictions and conflicts among population, society, resources and environment, resulting in an extremely serious ecological crisis. Among them, there are not only environmental pollution disasters that can be said to be all over the country with the rapid development of industrialization, urbanization and township enterprises, but also gradual disasters that are brought to human beings because of the strong interference of human factors, such as soil desertification, salinization, soil erosion, forest destruction, lack of water resources and reduction of species diversity. In addition, nature itself will undergo drastic periodic changes relative to human beings, and we are just at a climax stage of this periodic change, such as earthquake active period, volcanic active period, climate warming period and so on. Natural, man-made and various disasters have become one of the number one enemies that restrict China's social and economic development and threaten people's lives. We walked out of the "country of famine", but we entered the "country of disaster", or to put it in a more fashionable way, we entered a "risk society" which is gestating a huge crisis.
clarify Shi Ke and face up to history
Of course, it is not terrible to have a crisis, what is terrible is the attitude towards it. Because the current natural disasters and environmental crises are mainly accompanied by the triumphant progress of economic growth and scientific and technological development, and the development of economy and science and technology itself has indeed provided unprecedented ability to resist all kinds of disasters, many people often don't care much about the current crisis, and at most, they just regard all kinds of environmental problems as inevitable products of the economic development process, which can be solved naturally through the further development of the national economy, so they always maintain a blindly optimistic attitude towards the future. If someone deliberately emphasizes the serious consequences of the above-mentioned disasters and their future strengthening trend, even if it is not regarded as nonsense, it will be accused of "worrying about the sky." Some scholars even questioned the conclusion that "the number of natural disasters is increasing" from the perspective of the reliability of China's historical documents, in order to resolve the so-called unnecessary "worry" about the future. What is the truth?
according to this scholar's argument, the so-called "increasing number of natural disasters" is actually caused by the deviation of historical records, which is not consistent with the actual number of disasters. There are two reasons for this: the first is "detailed near slightly far". That is, the closer the time and place of a disaster, the deeper people's impression of it, the greater the probability of disaster being recorded, and the number of disaster records is inversely proportional to the distance of the disaster. For example, disasters in no man's land, no matter how serious, will not be noticed by many people, while in densely populated areas, political and economic centers and metropolises, even minor disasters will attract more extensive attention from society and leave a lot of information. Similarly, disasters that occurred in ancient times and ancient times only left some mixed legends at most, and the impact of disasters that occurred after the Middle Ages could not be compared with that of modern times. Secondly, the lack of historical data, the longer the age, the less records left, and the fewer disasters counted. It is these two reasons that make people have the illusion that the number of disasters is increasing. Otherwise, according to the statistics of relevant works at present, from modern times to ancient times, the earlier the dynasty, the less the number of disasters. By the pre-Qin period, some years were completely blank. "Can we say that there were no disasters at that time?"
This analysis is not unreasonable, but if we know the particularity of China's historical records and take into account the relationship between human activities and disasters, we will not be too pessimistic about the authenticity of the above-mentioned historical records, especially for those areas with strong continuity and rich information. On the contrary, we should be more confident-of course, we need to further explore historical materials. This particularity is the completeness of historical records in China since Ming and Qing Dynasties and the perfection of disaster reporting system in Qing Dynasty, and it is precisely a large number of statistics since Ming and Qing Dynasties that show the increasing trend of disaster times. There is another big loophole in this analysis, that is, ignoring or even misunderstanding the direct proportional relationship between population growth, production expansion and the number of disasters. That is, with the increasing population of China in history and the doubling of human production and living areas, the disasters suffered or recorded will of course increase accordingly. Similarly, in terms of spatial distribution, the more densely populated areas, the more politically, economically and culturally developed areas, the more opportunities for natural variation to cause disasters and the more times of disasters; On the contrary, the more sparsely populated areas are, the less chances there are for disasters, and naturally there are not many records. As for the phenomenon of natural changes in no-man's land, if its consequences do not affect human beings in the end, it will be a spectacle of nature, not a disaster.
As early as the 192s and 193s, Mr. Zhu Kezhen had solved this problem. In the article "Environment and Floods in Zhili Geography" published at that time, he made an incisive analysis of the reasons for the excessive floods in Zhili in the three centuries since the 17th century. He believes that this situation is not because Zhili is the capital, so it is recorded in detail, because before the 17th century, Zhili was also the capital, but there were not many disasters recorded. Nor is it because the channel of Yongding River has changed, resulting in more frequent flooding, because future generations are far ahead of others in the governance of Yongding River. The real reason is the increase of Zhili population and the prosperity of agriculture. Because before the Song Dynasty, the low-lying areas in Zhili Province were all lake swamps, which had not been reclaimed. After the Yuan and Ming Dynasties, the former swamps gradually turned into fertile fields, and the floods increased accordingly. "Because even if there was water before, it would not be a disaster. So far, there is water that must be a disaster. As a result, the records of Zhili floods in historical books have of course suddenly increased. " Zhu Kezhen believes that this should be a "comparison of the most satisfactory.