Author Kong Haili, Tang Shaokui

Edited by Zhang Weixian, Jiang Peipei

Tuyuan

"Hand over the house with one hand" and "Selling the existing house, what you see is what you get" ... The dispute about the pre-sale system of commercial housing.

do you want to cancel the pre-sale system? If there is no such system, can everything be avoided later?

can the call to cancel the pre-sale system of the property market be fulfilled?

how is the pre-sale system formed and what are the problems in its actual implementation? Can the call to cancel the pre-sale system be fulfilled? If there is no such system, can everything be avoided later?

However, the use and withdrawal of a tool also involves a complex soil environment. If it goes to the other extreme in the short term, the impact of a hard landing may be even more uncontrollable.

many people in the industry believe that it is not advisable to completely cancel the pre-sale system under the current environment. Instead, we should tighten the reins of the system, gradually promote the reform of the pre-sale system according to local conditions, make targeted adjustments and improvements, and strengthen supervision, so that a more suitable system can better serve the housing cause.

special product

in our conventional cognition, it is generally believed that the pre-sale system of commercial housing originated from Hong Kong and evolved from "selling uncompleted flats", that is, a marketing means for developers to pre-sell the auction house to consumers before the commercial housing is completed.

In the 199s, in the early stage of the housing system reform in China, in view of the lack of funds for housing enterprises and the small supply of housing in the market at that time, in order to rapidly increase the supply of housing, we learned from the experience of Hong Kong and introduced the pre-sale system of commercial housing.

objectively speaking, the pre-sale system has played a positive role. "As the most important way to sell commercial housing in China, the pre-sale system has greatly shortened the cash withdrawal cycle of housing enterprises, increased the supply of commercial housing in the market, and promoted the development of urbanization." Researcher Ren Zeping said that the pre-sale system has become the most important way of commercial housing sales in China. In 221, the cumulative sales area of forward houses in China reached 1.56 billion square meters, accounting for 87% of the total sales area of commercial housing.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, also believes that the pre-sale system has promoted the large-scale development of land supply, shortened the housing supply cycle, and stabilized the housing price level to some extent.

However, after careful study, we can find that there are many differences between the pre-sale system of commercial housing currently implemented in China and the pre-sale system of auction houses in mature markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore.

"In essence, pre-sale means that small owners provide disguised financing to developers, which is equivalent to an' interest-free loan' for about two years, and the developers use this money to build the house." Li Yujia said.

Zou Linhua, head of the housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, made a detailed comparison between the pre-sale system in Hong Kong and that in the Mainland. From the comparison of the key rights and interests of both parties, Hong Kong's "uncompleted flats" also have a certain mechanism of reneging on the contract and returning the house, while the mainland auction sellers are equivalent to existing home sales in actual rights and interests, and the buyers cannot renege on the contract and return the house.

Zou Linhua said that from the process of buying and selling "uncompleted flats" in Hong Kong, the payment method and the right to cancel the contract and return the house, it can be clearly seen that the economic nature of "uncompleted flats" is closer to credit reservation or installment payment, while the pre-sale of our auction houses is closer to "building houses by raising funds", and all kinds of risks are mainly borne by the buyers.

another result that can't be ignored is that "uncompleted flats" belong to the middle leverage and middle turnover mode, while the pre-sale system of commercial housing in the mainland has contributed to the characteristics of high leverage, high turnover and high marketing cost to some extent in the long-term actual implementation.

what are the difficulties in existing home sales? Will house prices go up?

at the new time node, when the historical context of the pre-sale system no longer exists, there are endless discussions about canceling the pre-sale system.

one voice is to promote the reform of the pre-sale system of faster houses from the perspective of protecting the rights and interests of buyers, while the other voice advocates the complete implementation of existing home sales. The latter believes that existing home sales can not only reduce the problems of delayed delivery, poor product quality and false promises, but also help to reduce the financial attributes of housing enterprises, which is widely expected.

But the problem is not so simple, and there are objective difficulties in promoting the existing home sales system.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that in the first half of this year, the self-raised funds of housing enterprises accounted for 35%. Once the existing home sales are stipulated, the developer's funds will be greatly tested and may become the last straw to overwhelm the housing enterprises.

"In the past, the pricing model was mostly based on the time cost on the basis of quick turnover. If the existing home is sold, it will take two to three years for the delivery and acceptance under normal circumstances, and the cost rigidity will be forced. The previous pricing model will be completely subverted, and the increased capital cost due to the delay in listing will eventually be passed on to the house price." Zhang Dawei explained that the direct cancellation of pre-sale will lead to a sharp decline in supply at least for a period of time, and the shortage of supply will further lead to a rapid rise in housing prices.

However, the exploration of existing home sales has not stopped, including Hainan, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Beijing and many other places have tried existing home sales in the land transfer link.

As early as 214, Shanghai asked for the sale of a fully renovated existing home for a plot in Huangpu District. In May 216, Shenzhen also joined the pilot team of commercial housing sales.

in the past two years, Beijing has also been actively promoting the pilot sales of existing homes. In December 221, the third batch of centralized land auctions in Beijing required all existing houses in Jinsong plot in Chaoyang District to be sold, and five other plots also set the sales area rules for competing existing houses; By the first round of centralized land supply in 222, half of the 18 plots launched in Beijing have set up the link of competitive existing home sales area, and the starting area of "existing home sales" set by most plots is close to 1, square meters, and the upper limit of competitive bidding is close to the construction area of plots.

the key link

is to return to the pre-sale system itself, which is a tool with the existing home sales system. How to use the tool well in actual implementation is even more critical.

the pre-sale of commercial housing in China needs to meet the following two conditions: first, it needs to obtain four certificates, namely, land use right certificate, construction project planning permit, construction permit and commercial housing pre-sale permit; Second, the progress of the project is up to standard, that is, the funds invested in development and construction reach more than 25% of the total investment of the project construction. After meeting the pre-sale conditions and applying for pre-sale, the sales funds obtained from pre-sale must enter the supervision account.

According to Li Yujia, for the supervision of pre-sale funds, China requires the supervision banks to choose by bidding, all the funds will enter the supervision account, and the housing and construction departments and the supervision banks will double audit, and the supervision units will pay according to the progress of the project after signing. "There is a system, it is not implemented, or sometimes it is implemented, sometimes it is not implemented, or it is not in place. This is the key to the problem." He said.

The person said that some pre-sale funds will not even be deposited in the supervision account, but will directly enter the account controlled by the developer for the daily operation of the company.

according to Xinhua news agency in February this year, new regulations on the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been issued, which is the first time to make unified arrangements and determine the supervision mechanism at the national level.

Xinhua News Agency also mentioned in its interpretation report on the introduction of new regulations on the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing in February this year that in practice, the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing in some cities is not in place, and some real estate development enterprises illegally misappropriate pre-sale funds, delay the delivery of houses, unfinished buildings and other phenomena occur from time to time, which seriously infringe on the legitimate rights and interests of buyers. It is necessary to standardize the supervision of pre-sale funds at the national level.

according to Xinhua news agency, the new regulation on the supervision of pre-sale funds is clear, and the municipal and county housing and urban-rural construction departments should, together with relevant departments, determine the commercial banks that can undertake the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing through public bidding, taking into account the credit status, supervision ability and service level of commercial banks.

at the same time, the municipal and county housing and urban-rural construction departments, real estate development enterprises and commercial banks should sign a tripartite supervision agreement on pre-sale funds, and clarify the ways of storage and use of pre-sale funds, the amount of supervision, and the liability for breach of contract.

In addition, the supervision quota is determined according to the construction cost of commercial housing projects, the amount of construction contracts, the delivery conditions of the projects and other factors, rather than simply the proportion of housing sales; After ensuring the funds needed for the completion and delivery of real estate projects, the funds exceeding the supervision amount can be extracted and used by real estate development enterprises.

The new regulations also have clear arrangements for the fund disbursement nodes, stipulating that the funds within the supervision limit should be disbursed according to the construction progress, and the first disbursement node should not be completed before the underground structure, and the last disbursement node is the first registration of the house ownership.

shoot more!

at the local level, the management methods of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been adjusted one after another in recent days.

For example, Longgang District, Shenzhen proposed to strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds, and the Housing Construction Bureau of Longgang District strengthened the supervision of pre-sale funds of real estate projects for sale, comprehensively checked the storage and use of pre-sale funds of projects, and investigated potential risks of projects. The supervision of pre-sale funds should be strictly kept in proportion to ensure the completion and delivery of real estate projects.

Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Cangzhou City, Hebei Province issued "Supervision Measures on Soliciting Pre-sale Funds of Commercial Housing in Cangzhou City >; Announcement on Opinions (Draft for Comment) proposes that before the pre-seller applies for the pre-sale permit of commercial housing, he should choose a supervision bank, open a special account according to the principle that one application for the pre-sale permit of commercial housing corresponds to only one account, and sign a supervision agreement with the supervision bank and the supervision department for the pre-sale fund of new commercial housing. After the establishment of the supervision account, the words: "The purchase price does not enter the supervision account, and this contract is invalid, and both buyers and sellers can terminate it at any time" must be indicated in the commercial housing sales contract. For projects without a supervision account, the relevant departments shall not handle the pre-sale permit of commercial housing and the online signing of commercial housing for the record.

The Working Measures on Preventing the Increment of Delayed Delivery of Commercial Housing issued by the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Xi 'an City, Shaanxi Province stipulates that all the funds for pre-sale of commercial housing (including deposit, down payment, house purchase loan and all other forms of house payment) should be directly deposited into a special supervision account for supervision, and the development enterprise shall not directly collect or set up another account to receive the house purchase payment of the purchaser.

Strictly allocate funds. Before the acceptance of the main structure of commercial housing projects is completed, the accumulated use of key supervision funds shall not exceed 5% of the total amount; Before the completion of the acceptance, shall not exceed 95%; Before the completion of the completion acceptance for the record, it shall not exceed 99%; After the real estate is registered for the first time, the remaining 1% can be withdrawn.

where will the pre-sale system go?

yihan think tank points out that the pre-sale system and existing home sales are not completely alternative, and they are mutually cooperative or more effective in a certain stage, which can promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. When conditions are ripe, it is also an option for the existing home sales system to gradually replace the pre-sale system.

"Hot cities, hot projects, giving priority to the pilot existing home sales system or one of the best options, find problems in the process, sum up experience, and constantly optimize to ensure that the policy will not cause excessive and uncontrollable negative impact, and then gradually expand the scope after the experience is mature, and copy the successful experience to other regions." Yu Xiaoyu said.

Zou Linhua believes that the reform of the auction house pre-sale system needs to be carried out according to local conditions and steadily, rather than across the board. She suggested that cities with conditions can try to promote spot sales according to local conditions. For cities that do not have the conditions to promote spot sales, they can still support pre-sales, and at the same time promote the reform of key links, so that the pre-sale of auction houses will gradually approach to the pre-sale or installment sale in mature markets, which will more effectively protect the rights and interests of buyers.

Haitong Securities gives an analysis of the future evolution of the pre-sale system in its research report. The institution believes that the root of the current problem lies not in the pre-sale system itself, but in whether the supervision system is strict. When the contradiction between supply and demand in the current market has not been effectively solved, it is unlikely to be revised across the board.

"For cities with less short-term inventory, it is more suitable to increase land supply in advance, and then adopt the mode of cutting off the old and the new; For cities with more short-term inventory, it is more suitable to start with the inventory and cooperate with the land supply plan. In addition, when land is transferred, it is also an optional transition method to gradually specify whether it can be pre-sold in the land transfer conditions. " Haitong Securities pointed out.

"Many people think that the pre-sale system should be abolished, but on the contrary, it should be the node to thoroughly and comprehensively strengthen the pre-sale system." Li Yujia said that strict supervision and implementation can not only build the house well, but also minimize the cost.

up to 8 million! The housing subsidy policy is on the rise: local governments actively stabilize the property market

On July 2th, Nantong Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Award and Compensation for the Purchase of Rigid and Improved Commercial Housing in the Main City, making it clear that the first or second family commercial housing (including second-hand housing, the same below) should be purchased in the name of individuals within the main city, and the online signing time of the purchase contract should be after May 2th, 222 (inclusive), or the scope of the main city should be obtained through auction. And in line with the conditions of the award, you can apply for the purchase award according to .75% of the deed tax amount of the purchased house (residential part) (subject to the deed tax payment bill).

Coincidentally, on the same day, Nantong completed the second land auction. The transaction results showed that one of the 13 plots was suspended for some reason after 21 rounds of bidding, and the remaining 12 plots were sold at the reserve price, all of which were won by local enterprises in Nantong, with a total turnover of 6.12 billion yuan.

This third-tier city, which is separated from Shanghai by a river, has come to a dull end, or it is one of the factors that local governments have introduced policies to activate liquidity.

the impulse to destock

the subsidy policy for house purchase is introduced in various places to destock, and the impact of the policy on the property market is quite obvious in the short term.

As early as the beginning of June, Xuzhou xinyi city took the lead in introducing housing subsidies, and foreigners bought the first suite in xinyi city to give 3 yuan/square meter housing subsidies; If a registered family with two or three children in this city purchases commercial housing, the two-child family will be given a subsidy of 2 yuan/m2, and the three-child family will be given a subsidy of 3 yuan/m2. A local real estate enterprise in Xuzhou pointed out that xinyi city has achieved certain results due to its strong subsidies.

on July 18th, Xuzhou city announced that within the urban area (including tongshan district, High-tech Zone, jiawang district, Economic Development Zone and Port Area), families can get a subsidy of 1% of the contract price if they buy new ordinary commercial housing (with a single building area of less than 144 square meters, excluding commercial housing for fixed sale).

however, the above-mentioned real estate developers think that the subsidy in Xuzhou city is not strong enough, and the effect remains to be seen.

Taking Huaibei, Anhui Province as an example, he pointed out that the greater the subsidy policy, the more obvious the effect. In mid-April, Huaibei City, Anhui Province introduced a housing subsidy, clarifying that individuals or families purchase the first family suite and give 6 yuan/square meter rewards (the highest is not