Because I prefer to extract quotations, I will extract the words of other outstanding people mentioned by the author in this article again so that I can remember them clearly in the future.
Author's context, in life and investment, the biggest risk cannot be attributed to an accurate number:?
Bill Sharp: At least in general, it is dangerous to think that risk is a number ... The problem we face is that there may be many different situations in the future.
Keynes (in the 1920s) said, "Nine times out of ten, without the help of any intuition and direct judgment, we can't find a method to determine the specific probability ... A proposition can't follow its development just because we imagine how it develops".
I don't know who said it, but the author's own quotation "But the so-called law is only suitable for most situations" gives a comprehensive description of risk: uncertainty.
The economist Hyman Minsky reminded us that the phrase "every country will support the quantity that will eventually destroy it" is not clear, so he added the context of the author's preface: "Because we believe in the low-risk characteristics of the market environment, the greater the risk we take, the lower the ability of the market environment to maintain low risk."
Author's Context: Coping with the Unknown Future: "The essential problem: investment requires us to decide how to allocate the investment portfolio for future development, but the future is unknown".
Einstein: "Not all the important things have been calculated clearly, and not all the calculated things are important."
Carvers Reed, an English philosopher and logician, put it well: "Vague correctness is better than precise mistakes". I have seen it in different places and I am deeply impressed, but the speaker knows for the first time that he can look for his books when he thinks it is appropriate.
There is also a sentence in the author's "The most important thing in investment" (I also screened some of them, which also shows that the information of a problem is transmitted to the true connotation of the information through continuous subjective screening, so those who really want to know it still need to know the most primitive or cross-verified): "In other words, if investors want to achieve excellent performance, they must find asymmetry (through some rules): events with rising potential exceeding falling risk. This is all about successful investment. " This is the most refined investment description I have ever experienced, and I found asymmetry.
Author's Context: Go forward bravely, but be cautious-Oak's mantra.
Charles Munger: "Investment is not simple. It is foolish to think that investment is easy. "
Original address: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rf_KmVF5ua3LmIM7DmDw3g
After the excerpt, I need to share my experience. You may or may not read this part. Because the experience is more for myself. From my own point of view, because of my weak language output ability, I have an advantage over myself in using words, and my own words are jumping, so I have insufficient reading experience. )
If you understand carefully: "self-confidence" and "humility" are contradictory. Just like the mantra of the oak tree: move forward, but be careful. Stepping forward is self-confidence, prudence is humility. In our traditional language, it is "bold but cautious".
be sure of oneself
Anthony Burton of Against the Trend: "Every stock of yours should have an investment theme". Recently, this experience is gradually deepening. From the perspective of life and investment, the investment theme can be used as the basis of foothold, so as to stick to it confidently and naturally.
At the same time, from the perspective of consciousness, people's thinking determines people's actions, self-confidence is a kind of thinking, and persistence is an action. So first of all, be confident and stick to it.
Here, I recall the "goal" in the intensive reading "Growth Dictionary" I just read, and there is an image case:
1950, Florence chadwick became the first woman to swim the English Channel successfully. Two years later, she set off from Cadling Island and swam to California beach, trying to set an unprecedented record.
When the sea is foggy, the sea surface freezes. After swimming for 16 hours, my lips turned purple with cold, exhausted and trembling all over. She looked up into the distance and saw the fog in front of her, as if the land was still far away from her. "I still can't see the coast. It seems that I can't swim the whole distance this time. " Thinking like this, she suddenly collapsed and even had no strength to paddle again.
"Drag me up!" She said to the people in the boat with her.
"Bullet, hold on. There is only one mile left. " The people on the boat encouraged her.
"Don't lie to me. If there is only one mile left, I should be able to see the coast. Drag me up, quick, drag me up! "
So chadwick, shivering, was dragged into the boat.
The ship went ahead at full speed. Just as she wrapped the blanket and drank a cup of hot soup, the brown coastline emerged from the thick fog, and she could even vaguely see the cheering people on the coast. Only then did she know that the people on board didn't lie to her, and she was really only one mile away from success! She sighed and regretted that she had not gritted her teeth and persisted.
A few hours later, while warming up, she told reporters, "Well, I'm not making excuses for myself, but if I can see land, I'll succeed." Look, in this swimming, it was not the tired and cold sea water that defeated her, but the fog. Because of the fog, she couldn't see her goal at all.
After this incident, she realized that it was not the fog that hindered her success, but the inner doubts. It was she who let the fog block her sight and confuse her heart. First, she lost confidence in herself, and then she was captured by the fog. Two months later, chadwick tried to swim to the California coast again. The fog still hung over her, and the sea was freezing cold, so she couldn't see the land. But this time she ...
For such a story, persistence, as an action, is very classic. "Investment theme" can be regarded as a vague scene of life and investment in the distance, which makes people yearn for it and can move forward without weakness. It is also what I think of as "forward".
As the British philosopher and logician Carvis Reid said, "Vague correctness is better than precise error".
Humble and unobtrusive
Humility is a good way to deal with the attitude towards the world around us, because we are not omnipotent and omniscient gods. In fact, even what we see with our eyes, hear with our ears and feel represents how much "truth" of the real world is still uncertain.
Because in humility, my own experience is quite limited, and this limitation is more of a lack of knowledge and experience. Therefore, I can only say that I have a mentality, and I hope that under the change of mentality, I can naturally drive actions to accumulate.
The theme of "fuzzy correctness" here is a good sense of experience, because it is vague, so humble, because it is correct, so confident. Correctly decide the direction of action and vaguely decide the way of action.
According to Confucianism, "Zhi Zhi will decide later, then he can be quiet, then he can be quiet, then he can be safe, then he can think, and then he can get it". It also embodies the guiding significance of fuzziness and correctness. Silence can make you think better, but silence can feed you back. From this perspective, self-confidence and humility are a static and dynamic contradictory unity.