Zhang Zhixin, associate researcher and Ph.D., Institute of American Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations

On May 9, a number of non-governmental organizations leaning toward the Democratic Party appealed to the House of Representatives in Washington, the capital of the United States. Sheeda Tlaib submitted a petition signed by more than 10 million people, asking Congress to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Although there are different opinions within the Democratic Party on whether to impeach Trump, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made it clear that she "does not support the immediate initiation of impeachment proceedings." At a time when the tide of public opinion against Trump is so strong, why are the Democrats stalling on the issue of impeachment? To sum up, they have three main reasons not to launch an action to impeach Trump for the time being.

First, the Democratic Party is unwilling to "take the blame" for another division in American politics and society.

There is no doubt that Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 election and his unusual governing style after taking office in the White House have caused American politics and society to fall into a division rarely seen in history.

On the one hand, Trump has carried out a "big reckoning" with the policies of the Obama era and basically "opposed every obstacle", such as withdrawing from the "Trans-Pacific Partnership" (TPP) and withdrawing from Paris. Climate accords, attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare, repeal of Wall Street financial regulations, and more.

On the other hand, Trump has done his best to protect ethnic minorities and disadvantaged groups in society. His "travel ban" is a blatant discrimination against the Muslim population, and his characterization of Hispanic immigrants as "criminals," "drug dealers," and "gangsters" also highlights the "racism" behind his policies. Consider. Trump’s executive order banning transgender people from joining the military is a heavy blow to previous efforts to safeguard the rights of vulnerable groups in society.

Against this background, if the Democratic Party rashly launches the impeachment of Trump, it will only exacerbate the divisions in American politics and society. Every American will even have to make a choice, whether to support or oppose impeachment. , and this is not conducive to the unity of American society. Therefore, the Democratic Party does not want to "take the blame" for another division of the country and society.

American people protest against Trump

Secondly, the Democratic Party is unwilling to "take the blame" for undermining the "constitutional politics" of the United States.

Obviously, whether to impeach Trump is both a judicial issue and a political issue. The Democratic Party's concern is that initiating impeachment is like opening a "Pandora's box" and the results may be completely uncontrollable.

First, after the release of the abridged version of Special Prosecutor Mueller’s investigation report on the “Russia Gate” investigation, the Democratic Party has determined that the so-called investigation is just a “witch hunt” by the Democratic Party against Trump. , vowing to make the Democratic Party "pay a price" in the 2020 election. In other words, if the results of the "Tong-Russia" investigation cannot be used to impeach Trump, it may in turn become a "political weapon" for the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party to attack Democrats in the election.

Secondly, the Democratic Party is fully aware of the issue of Trump undermining the "constitutional politics" of the United States, but believes that initiating impeachment without clear evidence of illegality is tantamount to undermining the "constitutional politics" of the United States. Constitutional government", they are obviously unwilling to bear this "responsibility". At the same time, the Democratic Party does not want to be stigmatized for this, that is, it impeaches the current president because of different political opinions. If this is possible, the Democratic Party can also treat Democratic presidents in this way in the future. This is the greatest damage to the American constitutional tradition. of destruction.

American people protest against Trump

Third, the Democratic Party believes that the 2020 election is more important than impeaching Trump.

There are three reasons. First, when the Mueller investigation report basically cleared Trump, the Democratic Party launched impeachment, which will undoubtedly turn *** *** and the core voters of the party into their own. "Convoy" and alienating the moderates in the center will be the outcome the Democratic Party least wants to see.

Second, from the perspective of American history, impeachment without certainty of victory will only be detrimental to the election of the sponsoring party. In the 1990s, the Republican Party launched an impeachment against Clinton due to "Zippergate", but the results were counterproductive. Clinton's reputation actually improved after the impeachment failed. In 2007, when Pelosi first became Speaker of the House of Representatives, she also opposed the impeachment of then-President George W. Bush for launching the Iraq War. Moreover, she believes that the Democratic victory in the 2018 midterm elections was largely due to health care issues rather than public support for impeaching Trump. In view of this, rashly launching impeachment may be detrimental to the Democratic Party.

Third, there is no need for the Democratic Party to fight a battle that has no chance of winning. Currently, although the American public's support rate for impeaching Trump is as high as 45%, it is even higher than the 43% support rate for the impeachment of Nixon before President Nixon was forced to resign due to the "Watergate Incident" in 1974. However, Pelosi clearly understands that even if the impeachment bill is passed in the House of Representatives, 67 votes will be needed in the Senate to remove Trump from office. In other words, at least 20 members of the Democratic Party Senate need to defect to support the Democratic Party's motion before the impeachment case can be passed. Therefore, there is really no need for the Democratic Party to rush forward with impeachment.

As the primaries of the two parties for the 2020 general election are already in full swing, the Democratic Party obviously believes that instead of pursuing unrealistic goals, it is better to fight a down-to-earth election campaign and expel Trump from the White House. Only in this way can it be more in line with the political interests of the Democratic Party.

(Editor in charge: Wang Xin)