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What is the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft? How is it calculated?

We talk about the draft every year, but many of the procedures and rules of the NBA draft are still like "smoke and mirrors" to some Chinese fans today. Divided by time, the annual NBA draft can be roughly divided into two parts. The first part is the draft lottery: The NBA has implemented draft lottery since 1985. Every year when the playoffs are in full swing, the NBA will convene the teams that failed to enter the playoffs to hold a lottery ceremony to determine the top three rookie picks in the future. Belong. In the lottery ceremony, the host will take out 14 table tennis balls numbered 1-14, put them in a container, and randomly draw 4 balls from the 14 balls, regardless of the order of the numbers, one *** can produce There are 1,001 possible combinations, and excluding this 11-12-13-14 combination, there are exactly 1,000 remaining. Before the draw, teams that have not qualified for the playoffs have been ranked in reverse order according to their regular season records, and the corresponding number of combinations (probabilities) of winning the No. 1 pick have been obtained. For example, there are 14 teams that did not enter the playoffs this year. Among these 14 teams, the Hawks with the worst record will receive 250 combinations, which means they have a 25% chance of winning the No. 1 pick. The Hornets with the second worst record will receive 199. Three, that is, a 19.9% ??chance. Based on this, the Timberwolves with the best record among the 14 teams have only 5 combinations, that is, a 0.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick. After the No. 1 pick was drawn, the four ping pong balls were put back into the container to re-determine the ownership of the No. 2 and No. 3 picks. After that, the remaining draft picks No. 4-30 in the first round and the second-round draft picks , will be determined in reverse order according to the results of the regular season.

Because it is a lottery, the phenomenon of "taking small to win big" to win the No. 1 pick often happens. This year's No. 1 pick was won by the Bucks, who had the sixth worst record in the regular season and only had a 6.3% chance. . The team that gets the "first pick" will also incur the "jealousy" and "jealousy" of other teams. When the 2002 NBA draft was drawn, the Rockets also had lower odds than the Bulls (the team was very interested in Yao Ming before the draft). , the Warriors, got the No. 1 pick. The moment the mystery was revealed, Francis, who attended the lottery ceremony on behalf of the Rockets, sat next to Krause, who was then the Bulls general manager. When "Father" later recalled "Fat Man's" sour expression at that time, he still found it funny: "Oh my God. , I think he wanted to swallow me.”

The next step is the climax of the draft-the draft, which is usually after the finals in June. On the day of the draft, the atmosphere in Madison Square Garden in New York will be as lively as a festival, and it is more like a bustling "talent market", gathering "merchants" from 30 teams across the United States. They want to purchase The "commodities" are naturally those rookies who may change the team's destiny in the future. In 1960, the NBA draft had as many as 21 rounds, and each team could select one player in each round. However, the number of draft rounds gradually decreased after that. After it was reduced to two rounds in 1989, the number of picks in the hands of each team became more "Gold is precious". Each NBA team will select the players they need from the draft list in sequence (international players over 22 years old who have not applied and are not on the draft list can also be selected by the NBA) according to their own lottery positions, and NBA regulations Each team will make at least one selection over the course of two rounds.

On this night, the rookie who was lucky enough to be selected in the first round and came to the scene was destined to be the focus of attention. President David Stern's congratulations, relatives' kisses and mellow wine... When he woke up, the poor boy found that he had become a millionaire. The contracts of NBA first-round picks and second-round picks are very different in terms of benefits and stability. Although in the new labor contract, the contract of first-round picks has been changed from the original "3+1" to "2+2" (formerly It is guaranteed for two years, and the club enjoys priority renewal rights for the next two years), but the salary amount is still considerable. For example, Bogut, the new NBA No. 1 pick in 2005, signed a contract with the Bucks on July 2 just three days after the draft. According to his agent, the contract in the first year alone is expected to reach US$4.2 million.

However, since many teams may trade their picks before the draft, the draft order on the day of the draft may change greatly and affect the results of the draft. Before this year's draft, it was generally believed that Chris Paul, the point guard from Wake Forest University, had "triple-A" strength, but the Blazers used their No. 3 pick to trade with the Jazz. The Jazz originally wanted to choose a "tall" point guard. As a result, Marvin Williams from the University of Illinois, with his height of 1.90 meters and weight of 95 kilograms, beat Chris Paul to become the new guard. "Third Flower" (Chris Paul is only 1.85 meters tall and weighs 88.5 kilograms). It is also popular among NBA teams to trade future draft picks, but league regulations prohibit teams from trading away their future first-round picks for two consecutive years. Speaking of the introduction of this regulation, there is an interesting anecdote. When Ted Stepien was the owner of the Cavaliers from 1980 to 1983, he traded away his first-round rookie rights for several years in a row, but the players he received were all worthless "trash" and several "weak transactions." Come down, the Cavaliers are about to get busted by him. NBA executives were furious and put unprecedented "political pressure" on Ted, forcing him to buy the team to later owner Gander.

In order for Gander to happily take over the team, the NBA gave the Cavaliers several good future draft picks for free.

In order to ensure the quality of the NBA draft, the NBA has also strictly limited draft qualifications. According to the original draft rules, American players can declare for the NBA draft as long as they are 18 years old or older, creating the myth that LeBron James became the NBA's "No. 1 pick" at the age of 18. However, this year's new labor agreement has raised the draft age threshold to 19 years old, and must have graduated from high school for more than one year. Foreign players only need to be 19 years old or older to declare for the draft; if a player has already declared for the draft , and is on the draft list, you can withdraw your name from the draft list one week before the draft, and you will not worry about losing your eligibility to go to college (unless the player has already had the experience of being withdrawn from the draft in the past); if you are in the draft If he does not withdraw from the list one week ago, he will automatically lose his college eligibility, regardless of whether he can eventually be selected by an NBA team. The modern NBA draft has only two rounds and can absorb about 60 rookies. However, every year the number of rookies registered must exceed this number. Precisely because there is a certain "risk" in participating in the draft too early, a large number of rookies are "withdrawn" every year. The initial list of the 2005 NBA draft had 108 players, but in the end 50 players chose to withdraw, including 26 local American players (including high school and college students).

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