1. The problem of Japan's bad debts?
other specific measures (1) financial easing policy Since 1995, the Bank of Japan has been implementing a policy of super-financial easing, aiming at prospering and reducing the burden of bad debts of financial institutions.
The financial easing policy is that the government has relaxed its control, so that the market has sufficient capital supply. Therefore, the Bank of Japan lowered the short-term interest rate in the market, which is close to zero.
As a result, it has played a role in improving the stock market, housing investment and reducing the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises.
(2) Implementing "Early Corrective Measures" According to the Law on Ensuring the Operational Integrity of Financial Institutions, since 1997, the Japanese government has established an early corrective system for the banking and insurance industries in order to avoid serious financial situations as much as possible and reduce the difficulty of handling bankrupt financial institutions.
The so-called "early corrective measures" mean that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan provide administrative guidance to financial institutions to improve their operations according to the objective standard of their own capital ratio; For financial institutions with deteriorating operations, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan can issue orders for business reform and suspension, requiring them to take measures to rebuild and deal with bad debts as soon as possible.
(3) Debt-to-equity swaps In July 1999, the Japanese government formally stipulated the implementation terms of debt-to-equity swaps in the Industrial Regeneration Related Act, allowing financial institutions to implement debt-to-equity swaps for enterprises with deteriorating operations and inability to repay loans.
this treatment can relieve the debts of enterprises and improve their financial situation; At the same time, banks can also become shareholders of enterprises to supervise the business activities of enterprises.
If the business situation of the enterprise improves and the subscribed stock price rises, there is still a chance to recover the abandoned creditor's rights.
measures to deal with non-performing loans in the third stage (after 21) In April 21, Koizumi's government put forward that "without reform, there would be no economic recovery in Japan", stressing the need to "hold back the pain" and taking solving the problem of non-performing loans as the most important policy topic. In April 22, after announcing the results of a special review of the creditor's rights and debts of 11 major banks, the Japanese government
for this reason, since the second half of 22, the Japanese government has successively announced the implementation of a series of financial countermeasures to speed up the handling of bad debts.
1. New goals and new plans formulated In September 22, when Takenaka took office to replace Liu Ze as finance minister, he clearly put forward the early treatment plan for bad debts.
this plan requires that by the end of March 25, the ratio of non-performing loans of large banks (the ratio of the balance of non-performing loans to the total loans) should be reduced to half of that at the end of March 22, and requires major banks to dispose of the old non-performing assets before September 22 within two years, and the new non-performing assets after September within three years, so as to realize the normalization of non-performing loans.
At the same time, Koizumi's cabinet put forward a new plan to reduce bad debts, which includes: first, strictly control the calculation standard of deferred tax refund assets, and require the bank's asset adequacy ratio to reach 1%; Second, order banks to strictly examine loan claims; Third, in the preferred shares formed by injecting capital into large banks, the part that cannot be repaid at maturity is immediately converted into common shares; Fourthly, a new round of audit on the loan assets of major Japanese banks is conducted in order to find out whether there are more bad debts.
2. Building a new and stable financial system. After Koizumi took office, the government tried to fundamentally rebuild the system of financial institutions, mainly in the following aspects: (1) Set off a wave of restructuring of financial institutions. For a few financial institutions that have experienced business crises, other normal financial institutions can help them or merge.
General financial institutions are also willing to merge and acquire financial institutions in an operating crisis. Under the system of strictly controlling the opening of branches of financial institutions, they can not only get financial assistance from the Japanese government, but also get the benefits of rapidly increasing branches that are not available under normal circumstances.
for the Japanese government, the direct cost of dealing with this problem can also be greatly reduced.
therefore, most financial institutions are involved in the wave of merger, and in the process of financial reconstruction to deal with non-performing loans, a tripartite structure of Mitsubishi United Financial Holding Group, Mizuho Financial Holding Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Holding Group has been formed.
In this way, the number of financial institutions has been reduced, and excessive competition from many banks has been avoided. Financial institutions can also take back the decision-making power of lending interest rates and make interest rates market-oriented.
for banks with weak and unrecoverable financial foundations, the Japanese government generally implements temporary nationalization measures through compulsory injection.
For example, in May 23, public funds were injected into Lisona Bank, and in November 23, Ashikaga Bank was temporarily nationalized.
due to the implementation of these measures, the overall instability of the financial system has been further eliminated, and the impact on other financial institutions and the real economy has been minimized as much as possible.
(2) To further strengthen financial inspection and financial supervision, first of all, revise the asset verification standards, strictly check bank assets, combine bank self-inspection with the inspection of the Financial Services Department, publish the inspection results regularly, and require banks to take measures to narrow the gap with the inspection of the Financial Services Department.
For banks that fail to narrow the gap between self-inspection and inspection by FSA in time without justifiable reasons, FSA can issue business improvement orders.
Secondly, strengthen the supervision system of bank operation. The specific measures are as follows: give full play to the role of external supervisors, strengthen the function of external supervision, and strictly carry out external supervision; Set up a special agency in the financial department to strengthen the supervision of major banks; Strictly implement "early corrective measures" and "early warning system", give necessary administrative penalties to financial institutions that have not achieved the sound plan, and issue business improvement orders to rectify within a time limit; To investigate the responsibility of the operator, the operator should swear the correctness of financial statistics, and all statistical tables should be signed by the chairman.
3. Strengthening the function of the non-performing creditor's rights sorting and recycling institutions The non-performing creditor's rights sorting and recycling institutions have always been focusing on recycling banks' non-performing creditor's rights. After the introduction of the policy of directly dealing with non-performing creditor's rights, the Japanese government has given them the function of enterprise restructuring, and at the same time, it has taken the following measures: further strengthening the financial capacity of the sorting and recycling institutions and enterprise reconstruction funds to maximize their ability to recycle non-performing creditors; Create a creditor's rights trading market, improve the disposal efficiency of bad debts, and make the sorting and recycling institutions and government financial institutions cooperate with each other to speed up the transfer of recovered bad debts; Expand the securitization function of sorting and recycling institutions and promote the transfer of debt-backed securities.
4. The way banks deal with non-performing claims has changed from indirect to direct. In the past, Japanese banks mainly dealt with non-performing claims in an indirect way, that is, banks accumulated corresponding provision for doubtful debts to prevent the risk of returning loan funds.
in this way, even if the loan target enterprise goes bankrupt, the bank can use the accumulated reserves to carry it through.
however, its aftermath is that bad debts continue to hang on the books, which puts pressure on the bank's credit, resulting in more and more bad debts.
for this reason, the Japanese government issued the "emergency economic countermeasures" on April 6, 21, taking accelerating the handling of bad debts as the main content of structural reform, and decided to solve the problem of bad debts by direct handling according to market principles.
The so-called direct way, that is, the bank completely clarifies the relationship between creditor's rights and debts by making the loan object bankrupt according to law, includes three ways: first, giving up creditor's rights; Second, sell the creditor's rights individually or in packages; Third, carry out liquidation according to law.
The Financial Services Department will give up the creditor's rights as the most important means, mainly for enterprises that may have a surplus in the current account within three years.
the focus of direct treatment is enterprise restructuring, which aims to fundamentally eliminate the bad debts of financial institutions through enterprise debt restructuring.
Direct treatment can completely dissolve the financing relationship between financial institutions and loan enterprises, and directly remove bad debts.
5. The main measures to improve the financing conditions of small and medium-sized enterprises and provide them with more relaxed and preferential loan conditions include: amending the relevant contents of the tax system, investment and financing system and commercial law, continuing to relax the restrictions on the participation of the financial industry, speeding up the examination and approval of newly established financial institutions for small and medium-sized enterprises, improving the financing system and financial support system for the reconstruction of small and medium-sized enterprises, and ensuring the smooth financing of small and medium-sized enterprises; Formulate a sound plan for small and medium-sized enterprises and issue business improvement orders to financial institutions that have performed poorly in financing small and medium-sized enterprises and have not completed the credit plan for small and medium-sized enterprises; Strengthen the inspection and supervision of financing of small and medium-sized enterprises.
6. Promoting the regeneration of industries and enterprises. The Japanese government has successively revised the Industrial Regeneration Law, the Corporate Rehabilitation Law, the Civil Regeneration Law, the Civil Procedure Law and the Civil Enforcement Law, creating a relaxed and favorable legal environment for industrial restructuring and rebirth, enriching the judicial functions that are conducive to the regeneration of industries and enterprises, and enabling the handling of bad debts and the regeneration of industries and enterprises to proceed smoothly.
in April p>23, the Japanese government invested 5.5 billion yen to set up an industrial regeneration organization for large enterprises.
Industrial regeneration institutions purchase the loan claims of banks at current prices, and then promote the rectification and reorganization of enterprises.
the main task of industrial regeneration institutions is to provide additional financing and capital contribution to enterprises that are expected to be reorganized and rebuilt, and provide them with financial services such as trust and guarantee.
In order to promote enterprise regeneration, the Japanese government has formulated a series of policies, mainly including: strengthening the function of Japan's policy investment bank, increasing capital contribution to enterprise regeneration fund, and expanding financing and guarantee for enterprise reconstruction; Formulate guiding standards for judging oversupply; Encourage private funds from domestic and foreign investors to play an active role in enterprise regeneration.
Taking this as an opportunity, Japanese enterprise regeneration is really on the track.
Banks can refinance the regenerated enterprises.
in the long run, compared with the practice of letting the financing object go bankrupt, this practice shows economic effectiveness, that is, through various reorganizations, the operating resources that can generate cash flow can be used to the maximum extent.
In addition, some private investment funds are being formed in Japan to implement the plan of enterprise regeneration in step with enterprises.
second, how to analyze non-performing loans from the bank's financial statements
through the analysis of financial indicators, most of them are processed
third, how to audit the authenticity of the balance of non-performing loans
To objectively analyze and judge the quality of credit assets in China banking industry at present, it should be said that the asset quality is true and the disclosed non-performing loan ratio is basically accurate.
first of all, the disclosed information on non-performing loans is true. Important business data information disclosed by banks, including asset quality information such as non-performing loans, are audited by external auditors. If they do not meet the specified requirements, the auditors will ask the banks to make adjustments and disclose them according to the adjusted loan quality. Among them, the external audit of large banks is undertaken by internationally renowned accounting institutions, which shows that all operating data of banks are transparent. If the loan quality classification is materially untrue or false, both banks and external auditors must bear relevant legal responsibilities.
although a few branches of banks may resort to fraud and other illegal means to cover up their non-performing loans, superior banks and regulatory authorities will correct or adjust their classification through various means of monitoring and control, on-site inspection and external audit. Of course, it does not rule out that there will still be some factual non-performing loans in normal concern loans. Generally speaking, the non-performing loans disclosed by banks now should be true.
Secondly, asset preservation and risk mitigation measures are important ways for banks to resolve risks. Some people think that an important reason why the quality of bank assets is not true now is that many branches of banks are covering up the real quality of credit assets by adjusting, extending, reorganizing and even borrowing new ones to return old ones.
Great changes have taken place in the macro-economic operation, the market environment has changed, and the trading mode has changed, which will inevitably make it difficult for some borrowers to continue to perform the financing contracts originally signed with banks. Banks will also encounter many new uncertainties and need to take various measures such as risk prevention, preservation, slow release, control and disposal to keep the quality of credit assets as stable as possible. In this case, the bank negotiates with the borrower to adjust, modify or extend the elements of the original loan contract and reach a new mutually acceptable and executable contract to mitigate risks and preserve assets to adapt to the new economic operation. This is not only the need for enterprises to maintain normal production and operation, but also the most important and commonly used way for banks to resolve credit risks, which fully meets the requirements of regulations such as supervision and conforms to the practice of international banking. Risk management measures such as banks cannot be regarded as an act of covering up the quality of real credit assets.
in fact, this kind of adjustment and modification of loan contract elements is common even in the economic period, but it is more and more now. Of course, the basic principle of this kind of operation is that banks should ensure that the risks are not expanded or controllable, and will not bring greater pressure on the quality of credit assets in the future. For example, with the change of the real estate market, the sales progress has slowed down greatly. The loan period of real estate development agreed in the original loan contract is set according to the inertia thinking of rapid sales in the past, which does not match the sales progress after the change of the real estate market, resulting in a great increase in the probability of loan default. The bank and the borrower need to re-negotiate, and make corresponding adjustments to some elements such as the loan term and repayment method in the original contract according to the actual market sales repayment, so that the loan can repay the principal and interest normally. In view of such risk factors, banks adopt such asset preservation and risk mitigation measures to avoid technical default of customers.
Thirdly, loans with potential risks are not actual non-performing loans. Recently, overseas institutions and their analysts have continuously analyzed the asset quality of China's banking industry, and think that the risk debt or risk loan ratio is high, which is quite different from the disclosed data. This is actually a loan with risk factors or potential risks, but it is often misunderstood as a non-performing loan. Some people arbitrarily enlarge the credit risk of China banking industry, identify some loans with potential risks as non-performing loans or call them bad loans, and on this ground, raise false doubts about the non-performing loan ratio disclosed by banks.
The Global Financial Stability Report published by the International Monetary Fund in April 216 concluded that the proportion of risky debts in China's banking industry was 15.5%. The definition of "risk debt" refers to the situation that EBITDA's profit (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) is not enough to pay the interest of the current year. However, the report also counted the risk debts of the sample enterprises for two consecutive years, and this proportion dropped to 9%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points. Obviously, loans with risk factors are not actual non-performing loans. According to this speculation, if statistics continue for three years, the risk debt of the sample enterprises may drop to a lower level, which is generally consistent with the data disclosed by the banking industry. This also shows that the quality of credit assets of China banks is true. Even if a company has the above debt risk for many years in a row, it only increases the probability of default. As long as the enterprise has the willingness to perform the contract and other sources of debt repayment, it will not necessarily default.
from the actual situation, there are some potential