The third batch of centralized land supply is being carried out.

On November 3rd, Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources issued the third batch of centralized land supply notices, and it is planned to launch 51 plots. An obvious change is that the number of plots in the main urban area of Hangzhou has increased significantly.

this is a very important signal. On the whole, the second batch of centralized land supply in the country is cold, and the phenomenon of withdrawal of licenses has increased. Industry experts predict that the third batch of centralized land supply in China will be optimized in many aspects, such as lowering the margin ratio, increasing the land for rental housing and reducing binding restrictions.

The rate of withdrawing the license is from 6.5% to 31.8%

The second batch of centralized land supply is obviously cold. According to the statistics of the Central Finger Research Institute, as of October 21st, 2 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou, have completed the second batch of centralized land sales, among which 17 cities (Changchun, Xiamen and Wuxi have completed the second batch of auctions before August) responded to the requirements of the Ministry of Natural Resources to optimize the rules of land auction and strictly review their own funds for land purchase, and the market has obviously cooled down.

compared with the first batch, the floor price of residential land transactions in more than half of the cities has declined, and the proportion of land blocks that bid for the upper limit in most cities has dropped significantly. In addition, the second batch of land supply in 2 cities counted 7 plots and 195 plots were withdrawn, and the overall rate of withdrawal was 31.8% (the first batch was 6.5%).

Chen Wenjing, deputy research director of the Index Division of the Central Finger Research Institute, told the reporter of national business daily: "On the one hand, the policy regulation of key cities continued to be normalized during the year, and the real estate policy was frequently regulated in the third quarter, involving restrictions on purchases, sales and the reference price of second-hand housing transactions. The mortgage amount of superimposed banks was tight, the market wait-and-see mood rose, and the market activity declined significantly under the pressure of adjustment in most cities, and the expectations of real estate enterprises to acquire land declined. On the other hand, the central government continues to improve the prudent management of real estate finance, the capital end of housing enterprises continues to be under pressure, and the lending cycle is extended under the tight bank mortgage quota, which affects the pace of housing enterprises' repayment. The default events of individual enterprises also affect the normal financing of housing enterprises to a certain extent, overlapping the second batch of land supply and strict review of their own funds for land purchase, and the willingness of housing enterprises to take land is suppressed. "

the financing environment of housing enterprises has not improved.

according to the statistics of RealData, from January to October 221, the domestic and overseas bond financing of real estate enterprises totaled about 799.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 24% compared with the same period in 22, and the amount was reduced by 246.3 billion yuan. The cumulative decline in the first 1 months is an increase compared with the first three quarters of this year. The scale of bond issuance from January to October 221 accounts for about 66% of the whole year of 22.

from a single month in October 221, the situation is similar. There were 31 bond financing issues at home and abroad, a decrease of 31 from last month, and the issuance scale was equivalent to about RMB 3.4 billion, a decrease of 55.9% from the previous month and a decrease of 56.1% from the same period last year. In October, overseas financing * * * issued 6 bonds, and the number of bonds issued fell to single digits for the second time in the year; The financing scale was about RMB 1.1 billion, down 63.3% from the previous month and 69.6% from the same period last year. In October, 25 domestic bonds were issued, and the issuance scale was about 2.3 billion yuan, down 51.1% from the previous month and 43.6% from the same period last year.

Small and medium-sized land parcels may increase supply

On the whole, when optimizing the conditions of the third batch of land parcels, key cities still need to refine and improve the rules of land supply and land auction around the goal of "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations", and implement the policy of "one place, one policy" for reference.

Chen Wenjing said: "Reasonably adjust the land mass, initial price, binding restrictions, pilot rules and other transfer conditions, to a certain extent, guarantee the profit space of enterprises, and gradually guide housing enterprises to improve product quality. Specifically, the third batch of land supply in key cities will be optimized in three aspects: margin, leased land and reduction of binding restrictions. "

Chen Wenjing introduced that it is hard to relax the supervision of land purchase funds in key cities, and the margin ratio of some cities may be marginally improved, and the supply of small and medium-sized plots will be increased. It is expected that the threshold for housing enterprises to participate in the auction will be lowered, and some key cities may lower the margin ratio of the third batch of plots.

"Changsha, Chongqing and other cities with high auction withdrawal rates have room to reduce the margin ratio, while Wuhan has lowered the margin requirements for some plots during the second batch of land supply listing. In addition, the second batch of large-scale plots in cities such as Beijing suffered from auction or withdrawal. It is expected that the third batch will be split into several small and medium-sized plots for listing, lowering the funding threshold. " Chen Wenjing said.

the proportion of the second batch of land supply deposits in p>22 key cities

increasing the supply of land for rental housing

According to the previous requirements of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the proportion of land for single-row rental housing in the annual land supply plan of key cities is generally not less than 1%, and policy support is provided from the land side to expand the supply of affordable rental housing. However, according to incomplete statistics, at least 7 leased plots in the second batch of land supply have not been completed, while some plots in cities such as Changsha, Wuhan and Guangzhou have been sold at the reserve price or withdrawn by auction.

"The supply of leased housing land in some cities has not reached the annual plan, and it is expected that the leased land involved in the third batch of plots will still maintain a certain volume, among which Changchun has clearly stated that the third batch of plots will no longer supply residential land in principle. The third batch of land supply in key cities will optimize the transfer conditions such as competitive self-sustaining, fixed self-sustaining/construction (it is not excluded that some cities will learn from Shanghai's practice and launch pure leased land), and moderately reduce the initial land price to ensure the profit margin of land acquisition enterprises' projects. In addition, some cities may increase the proportion of affordable rental housing in suburban plots, reduce the requirements for the construction or self-sustaining of suburban plots, and set reasonable land prices to guide housing enterprises to rationally acquire land. "

reduce the binding restrictions to increase the willingness of housing enterprises to participate

The Central Finger Research Institute believes that the third batch of plots in some cities may optimize the pilot rules, reduce the binding restrictions, and gradually push forward the quality-related requirements.

Judging from the results of the second batch of land auctions, the pilot projects in some cities are not effective. Among them, Nansha and Huangpu District in Guangzhou have piloted "limited housing prices" and demanded that 5% of families without houses be sold in the future, and three plots will be auctioned; Ten plots in Hangzhou piloted "competitive quality" and required existing homes to be sold, and all of them were withdrawn due to insufficient applicants; After the second batch of land supply in Shenzhen was re-listed, the number of plots for "the same enterprise and its holding subsidiaries" was restricted, and then a supplementary announcement was issued to relax it to "the same enterprise"; There are many restrictions on the bundling of the second batch of plots in cities such as Changsha, involving the free allocation of construction area, the introduction of listed companies, and the resources of science and technology, medical industry, etc., and 6% of the plots were auctioned or revoked.

"It is expected that the third batch of land supply in some cities will optimize the pilot rules, binding restrictions and quality requirements of land plots, reduce the binding restrictions of land plots, adjust some pilot rules, improve the willingness of housing enterprises to take land, and gradually promote the landing of quality requirements." Chen Wenjing said.

The market will return to stability

According to the analysis of online signing data of 25 first-and second-tier cities that RealData focuses on, in 221, gold, nine silvers and ten silvers were affected by the high base, with a decline of more than 2% compared with the same period in 22. Based on the data of 22 and 221, the average sales area in September and October of the two years was at the same level as that in the same period of 219, slightly higher than that in the same period of 218. In terms of city line level, the online signing area of first-tier cities in September and October 221 was higher than that of the same period in 219; The online signing area of 21 second-tier cities focused on in September and October 221 was lower than that of the same period in the past three years, but the average value in September and October in the past two years was close to that in 219, higher than that in the same period in 218.

Pan Hao, a senior analyst in RealData, said: "At present, urban real estate control policies are basically not added, and attitudes and measures to maintain stability are gradually increasing. It is expected that the market will return to stability after digesting the impact of the high base in the previous period."

Chen Wenjing also said: "Since the end of September, the central government has continuously released the signal of maintaining stability. Recently, the marginal credit ends of Guangzhou, Foshan and other cities have improved. Harbin has issued policies to ease the financial pressure of housing enterprises and increase housing subsidies. It is expected that more cities will follow the fine-tuning policies in the future, and the market is expected to improve in the short term. However, under the tone of not speculating in housing, it is hard to relax the policy control greatly, and the adjustment pressure of the real estate market is still there. It is expected that under the optimization of the third batch of land auction rules and transfer conditions, the expectation of land acquisition by real estate enterprises will be marginally improved, and the overall situation of auction and withdrawal may be slightly improved, but the market heat differentiation trend continues. "

"It is suggested that real estate enterprises should speed up the marketing rhythm, strengthen the monitoring of the market and competing products, and make scientific decisions by using digital tools to better realize the off-peak sales."