-David Coates, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts, gave a speech in Tsinghua University.

The research on the disintegration of the Soviet Union is written in my book "Top-down Revolution-the disintegration of the Soviet Union".

There are two mainstream views in the west on the disintegration of the Soviet Union: First, the Soviet economic system has been proved to be

Not feasible. The inherent contradictions in the economy in the 1980s led to economic collapse, and there was no choice but to establish capitalism. The second one is

Politically, once Gorbachev implemented freedom of speech and free elections, the Soviet people took advantage of their newly acquired rights.

Abolish socialism and establish capitalism. The essence of this mainstream view is that socialism has grown up in big countries.

Time failed after the attempt. I spent six years (199 1- 1996) studying the reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union. At the same time,

I met with senior officials, politicians and entrepreneurs of the former Soviet Union. From the 1920s to the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Research. My research proves that these mainstream views in the west are not in line with the facts.

On the causes of the economic collapse of the Soviet Union. 1928- 1975, the Soviet union experienced a period of rapid growth, from an agricultural society.

Will turn to the industrial society. According to western estimates, during the period of 1928- 1940, the Soviet Union grew at an average annual rate of 5.8%, which was very fast at that time.

Speed. 1950, the Soviet Union achieved industrialization faster than the United States until 1975. During this period, the Soviet Union

The average annual growth rate of the United States is 4.8%, while that of the United States is only 3.3%. This is the data of the West. In the same period, Eastern Europe was also better than the West.

Oh, come on. 1975, worse than before, slower, slower technological progress. The growth rate at this time is lower than that of the United States.

However, there is still a growth rate of 1.9% or 1.8%, and there is no negative growth, which cannot be called economic collapse. Water is consumed at this time.

Flat growth is faster than production. Then Yeltsin disintegrated the planned economy. So from 1990, there is an economy.

Absolute decline. 199 1 planned economy is no longer feasible. Yeltsin does not pay taxes to the central government. The planned economy of the Soviet Union was not made up of

It collapsed for its own reasons, but it was politically lifted by Yeltsin. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the economy collapsed.

Look at the second mainstream view in the west, that is, political reasons. The Soviet Union conducted many opinion polls. public opinion poll

The survey shows that only 5-20% people are in favor of capitalism, 1, 99 1, which was conducted in May and operated by the United States.

The Italian experiment was carried out in the European part of the Soviet Union. In the sample population, before the reform, 10% were in favor of socialism; 36% people are in favor of more.

Pluralistic democratic socialism; 23% people are in favor of Swedish socialism; Only 17% people are in favor of free market capitalism. this

It was after 1992 that Yeltsin established it. Therefore, there is no evidence that free market capitalism is the Soviet Union.

The will of the people. In the vote on whether to retain the Soviet Union, most of them are also in favor of retaining it.

My explanation for the disintegration of the Soviet Union is that the elite of the Soviet Union held separate discussions to determine their ideology. he

Among the students, 9.6% are in favor of materialism and nationalism; 12.3% is in favor of democratic socialism; 7 6.7% are in favor of capitalism.

Social form; 1.4% adopted other attitudes. This is in stark contrast to the attitude of the people. high-ranking

Most people are in favor of capitalism. They are allied with other groups. They are part of the underworld, the rich and the urban intellectuals.

Divide into alliances. They formed an alliance, seized power and established capitalism.

The formation process of this alliance is discussed in detail in my book. At 1975-85, the pressure is very high.

Force, demanding reform. Because of this pressure, Gorbachev came to power. Gorbachev's aim is to practice socialism.

Reform and democratize it. Gorbachev's aides believe that the impact of the Soviet Union's democratization and decentralization reform is limited.

Market factors, thinking that this can overcome the stagnation of the Soviet Union. However, the effect of Gorbachev's reform was unexpected.

Here we are. There is a power struggle among big interest groups. The first is freedom of speech, and the * * * production party no longer controls the mass media.

1990, a new democratic system emerged, that is, the new Soviet system, and the power of the former Soviet central Committee was dispersed. Start closing.

Political struggle related to the future direction of the Soviet Union. Generally speaking, there are three positions: continue to reform and democratize society; Return to Soviet socialism before the reform; Completely abandon socialism and replace it with capitalism. The emergence of the third position was unexpected.

Gorbachev's expectations. No one expected the change of the party's elite group. Yeltsin became a pro-capitalist leader.

Sleeve. Yeltsin became the president of the Russian Federation. In fact, the Soviet Union had two regimes coexisting. Gorbaccio

Dave controls the Soviet Union and Yeltsin controls Russia. At that time, Russia had no legal basis, neither law nor army. 1990

-199 1 year, the upper class accepted the position of supporting capitalism. This is related to the changes that have taken place in various social collectives during the Soviet period.

. In the 1980s, the high-level group of 654.38 million people was different from before. This fuzzy group is very pragmatic.

And materialistic, no ideological position. They will repeat official ideological words and sentences without believing them, just

Care about your privileges and interests. Only a few of them believe in socialism. Debate on the development of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s.

Direction, they began to make selective thinking: if the reform is democratized, the privileges and powers will be reduced;

If we return to socialism before the reform, although we have relative privileges and status, our privileges are subject to the original socialist mechanism.

Limited by the system, we can't accumulate too much wealth, let alone pass on privileges and wealth to future generations. Therefore,

The elite believe that capitalism can provide them with the greatest opportunity, not only to manage, but also to own wealth and pass it on to future generations.

Future generations can explain the rapid change of their views. This can put Gorbachev aside and let Yeltsin.

Get motivated. Specific measures involve many details, such as coal mine strikes, media competition, and nationalist sentiment around the Soviet Union.

. Yeltsin used these to seize power, leaving Gorbachev helpless.

This pro-capitalist force is mainly in Russia and the Republic of China. They realized that it was necessary to disintegrate the Soviet Union first.

Gain great power. Soviet elites believe that the transition to capitalism will make them rich. As it turns out,

This is correct. I studied the senior officials of the Soviet Union, such as chernomyrdin, who was prime minister for many years, and he was 80 years.

Acting minister of natural gas, 1992 became the boss of a natural gas monopoly company, with 40% of natural gas reserves, and became a natural gas monopoly company.

The richest man in the world. Kolkovski, 1993 When I interviewed him, he described himself as a youth league in the 1980s.

When a leader, how to use state funds to build his own private bank. In spite of the opposition of the people, they established

Capitalism.

Working people have benefited from socialism, but they have not fully exercised their rights. The masses in the socialist system

Next, in a passive position. They have no experience in taking action to defend their own interests. When the elite disintegrated the Soviet Union,

They could not organize resistance.

Yeltsin concealed his real purpose. He never talked about establishing capitalism, but only talked about democracy, reform and market reform.

Leather or something. He didn't talk about establishing capitalism until he stepped down as president. At this point, Yeltsin's leadership was established.

Other members of the regiment are more straightforward, and Gaidar sincerely carried out the capitalist revolution. He became the first.

As prime minister.

Lessons from the disintegration of the Soviet Union. According to the west, the disintegration of the Soviet Union proved that socialism was a huge mistake.

Economy is not feasible, and only capitalism can bring technological progress and improvement of living standards. My conclusion is different. Soviet

Disintegration can neither prove the failure of socialism nor the superiority of capitalism. This just proves that this system

Degree is better than capitalism to transform agricultural society into industrial society, and it develops faster and fairer than capitalism.

Positive. The early history of the Soviet Union proved this point.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union proved that the power of some elites was not lasting and stable. These authorities finally realized this dimension.

Protecting socialism is not in one's own interest; Capitalism, not socialism, suits one's own interests. At the same time, he

They also have the right to realize the transition to capitalism. This applies not only to explain the disintegration of the Soviet Union, but also to explain the East.

Drastic changes in Europe. This does not prove that the socialist system is not feasible. It tells us that if socialism is to last, it must be obeyed.

People who have benefited from socialism have also gained power. The people must have real sovereignty. I'm not talking about implementing capital here.

This democratic system. But socialism must master the production principle from the bottom up, not the upper level. this

Sample, socialism can be maintained.

Socialism came into being through revolution. For a time, power was at the top to consolidate the revolution. But this

It brought a problem to later socialism: it is difficult for a political party accustomed to exercising power to transform into a democratic party. but

As long as the older generation of revolutionaries are in power, there will be no problem. This has become a problem when the old generation dies and the new generation comes to power.

Yes The new collective leadership has no history of oppression and social progress in the old society. Therefore, it itself has a turning point.

The trend of capitalism. This is not inevitable. If we change the power relationship, we can avoid the transition to capitalism.

You don't have to have your own grave digger.

Socialism can also be produced in so-called democratic countries without hard struggle. There will be socialism.

It is not easy for the upper elite to form in a democratic way with the participation of the people from the beginning. But it is difficult for the United States to do this.

In other words, American rulers will resort to violence and will not respect the people's rights stipulated in the Constitution.