However, when I discussed trade issues in the Wall Street Journal, the situation was different. Some friends, even my American colleagues at McKinsey & Company, are worried that I will speak for Japan, or that my comments on Japanese protectionism are not objective enough. Some people even accused me of being a spokesman for Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry. In the 1980s, when I was interviewed by Fortune magazine, I pointed out that the problem of semiconductor manufacturers was not Japan. In fact, the semiconductor industry has become an industry with high fixed costs, and Malaysia has become the world's largest exporter of finished chips.
Why does a nuclear engineer switch to a management consultant who studies trade? Of course, this is not because I want to speak for Japan, but because I want to make suggestions on the international economic trend.
Among Japanese companies whose products are exported to the United States, 50 large companies account for 75%. My colleagues and I know these manufacturers very well because they are either our customers or their competitors. Once their situation changes, as management consultants, we should change our focus.
At the beginning, we helped these companies to develop products, strategies, organizations, personnel and management systems, with the goal of developing good products and promoting them at low prices. Once this strategy works, customers can export these products to other countries. Generally speaking, however, the situation we are considering does not go beyond national boundaries.
However, the failure of financial market supervision has made the situation more complicated. After the failure of supervision, Japanese enterprises not only produce and sell, but also create wealth in major regions of the world through different flexible channels. In order to help them gain a place in the market, we must also study macroeconomics and monetary and financial marketing.
The world protectionism or anti-protectionism without borders has accelerated the company to separate the main body of the enterprise system from the headquarters. This development forces us to think about the nature of organization and protectionism from a global perspective. I have worked in many large companies to help them change from an export-oriented organization to an organization focusing on regional production, investment and product development, and from a single headquarters model to a four-regional headquarters model. I have also worked in different companies in Europe, America and Asia, helping them to open up a world in Japan and gain a firm foothold. The psychological adjustment speed of the core managers of these companies is really amazing. This can be seen from the process of their acceptance of the following changes, that is, from regional to global, from adopting a value system based on one country to adopting a universally applicable value system, from a single headquarters to a region-oriented and market-oriented decision-making model, while the words "overseas business", "overseas affiliated enterprises" and "overseas branches" have disappeared. From then on, there is no such thing as "overseas". I happened to be in full swing when I saw a considerable number of managers make such changes in a short time. Of course, this does not mean that all Japanese can do it.
This book can be said to combine my understanding and experience of enterprise management strategy and competition, as well as my belief and analysis of macroeconomic issues. At the beginning of this book, I talked about the organization and strategy of international companies; The next step is to attack the administrative bureaucrats of our government, because these people have made a big mistake while falling out of favor; At the end of this book, I described the economic world we turned to.
By strategy, I mean creating more lasting value for customers than for competitors. Simply put, this is a question of invention and commercialization. People in big companies have forgotten how to invent things. These people know how to merge enterprises or imitate competitors' products, but they can't develop better products or new enterprises that support new ideas.
I'm not just talking about big companies that produce high-definition television (HDTV) with high technology, but also companies that produce daily necessities. For example, companies that invent coffee pots that can make more fragrant and delicious coffee, or companies that produce bubble bath products that promote skin metabolism. However, how many product managers who just stare at the computer screen can do this? These people are too worried about market competition, share and profit figures. Personally, I think it's time for big companies to go back and study the art of invention, but this time they should learn how to globalize their innovation, so that they can create world-wide economic achievements and sell their products to major markets.
Companies have to do this because in developed countries, customers are becoming more and more savvy and picky. It is consumers who control power, not companies that sell goods. Although information has shown the trend of globalization, most people may not understand the above, and they still think that multinational companies can do whatever they want. And if this book has other purposes besides helping readers understand the fundamentals of strategy and commercialization, it is clearly pointed out that multinational corporations actually serve consumers all over the world, and customers are the real power to promote companies to develop, manufacture and sell products in many countries. In addition, this driving force has also contributed to the borderless economy. In this way, trade statistics become insignificant.
If what I say is true, it's time to put the bureaucrats aside, and the role of the government will be changed to protect the environment, train the employed and build a safe and convenient social infrastructure accordingly. The policy of protecting the people and natural resources of the country, which was originally formulated in consideration of external economic threats, should be replaced by a new policy, which can ensure that the people of the country can choose good and cheap goods and services from all over the world as much as possible. If the government's role in this respect is slowly adjusted, it will not only scare away investors, but also make people suffer as in the past centuries. What's more, the government will isolate people from the increasingly formed world economic system and let them fall into constant nightmares and industrial stagnation. Because once the government takes a paranoid attitude towards foreign investment, it is afraid that foreign exploiters will steal the treasures of the town, which will invisibly ignore the needs of the people and deny the value of human capital represented by the people. In the political or economic field, no matter consumers or citizens, people can no longer tolerate the outdated role of the government.
Of course, bureaucrats exist in both America and Japan. These people miscalculate the trade figures month by month, and the result is to provide "weapons" for countries to launch trade wars. However, these people will be liquidated one day
The interconnected economies (ILE) of the Iron Triangle Economic Zone (USA, Japan and Europe) and the threatening economies of China, Taiwan Province, China, Hongkong and Singapore are impressive. These economies have conquered most consumers and companies because of their strength. As a result, the traditional national boundaries gradually disappeared, which also drove bureaucrats, politicians and the army to the end of the road.
The emergence of related economies has troubled those countries that are used to comparing countries and using traditional macroeconomic theories to guide their work. The theory on which they are based is no longer valid. Keynesian economic theorists regard the increase of employment opportunities as a sign of economic improvement, but the related economy sometimes makes them flinch, because they can create employment opportunities overseas. If the government controls the money supply, but loans keep flowing in from abroad, then a country's monetary policy is meaningless. If the central bank wants to raise interest rates, it can also transfer financing from other places, but the relevant economies act according to actual needs, which changes the role of traditional central banks in interest rates and money supply.
In relevant economies, products related to interest rates have lagged behind products unrelated to interest rates, such as real estate, stocks and money markets. And real estate, stocks, etc. have absorbed a lot of hot money and curbed inflation. There are a lot of hot money in the related economy, and because the investment space is still broad enough to absorb excess funds, it has not brought the evil consequences of inflation to ordinary people.
Generally speaking, financing is intangible. According to the trade balance between countries, the old method of trade statistics is out of date, because the residents of the relevant economies have learned to freely transfer their products and other commercial services. Old-school bureaucrats bent on reversing the trade imbalance, but made a decision to add fuel to the fire. They put obstacles everywhere to commodities and currencies that should circulate freely, and some bureaucrats even want to adjust the exchange rate to balance the figures. Money has the conversion value of tradable goods, services and assets, which changes the balance of power in the associated economy and redistributes wealth, which is very different from the previous situation based on the domestic economy.
According to traditional macroeconomics, the exchange rate should be adjusted with people's purchasing power of tradable goods, as well as interest rates and inflation in countries that trade with each other. However, the appearance of related economy makes this concept like waste paper. The transaction of assets has gone beyond the original national boundaries, and it is common for local companies to be acquired and changed hands by enterprises from different countries, even for art, patents and real estate transactions.
The population of associated economies is about 654.38+0 billion, and the per capita annual GDP is about 654.38+0 billion US dollars. The related economy creates, consumes and redistributes most of the world's wealth. For countries that have been isolated from themselves, participating in the relevant economy is the key to getting rich. Only by establishing two-way good communication channels with relevant economies can developing countries prosper and develop, and only through relevant economies can these countries maximize the value of their products. Nowadays, wealth is created in the market, not by colonies or ancient land rich in minerals.
There are no absolute winners or losers in this joint economy. Vulnerable groups can have their own attraction because of soft money's abundant labor force; On the other hand, due to changes in currency and wages, the economy of the stronger side will also drop to the average level of the relevant economies.
In the 1990s, even looking forward to the 2 1 century, the economic growth of the relevant economies will definitely go faster and faster. They will include most eastern European countries, newly industrialized economies in Asia and some countries in Latin America (once these countries adopt the policy of linking economies). Economic mutual assistance and mutual benefit have a stabilizing effect. After the Cold War era, when the military is the balancing force, it will definitely become the ideological mainstream of the associated economies.
The policy of joint economy is to ensure the free flow of information, money, products and services and the free transfer of labor and companies. The traditional government is bound to establish a new global management system. In short, it is imperative to understand the global economy accurately. This is also the purpose of this book.
Once a consumer has the means to receive information about products and services from all over the world, he is a global person. The same person, if exposed to all rigid and outdated national sentiments, may support the spokesman of protectionism. Even today, students are still reading old theories that don't work in the relevant economy. We should know that these theories are all closed economic theories developed by 19 at the turn of the 20th century. Most statistical concepts are sampled according to this theory, so that macroeconomic analysis can't even predict the economic situation of a country, let alone the whole world.
This is a good opportunity for us to examine the interrelated world economic reality. I can't come up with a new economic academic theory suitable for the relevant economy. What I can do is to share with you some opinions I have gained from consulting work in recent years, hoping that readers will pay attention to what I have said and the potential power of the new world we are moving towards. Some people may put forward a more rigorous economic theory to explain the real situation of the associated economy, while others will extract various political meanings of the associated economy and put forward a political system suitable for the new world according to the actual situation of today's economy. Political organizations after World War II, such as the United Nations, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the United Nations Development Programme, and the European Union after 1992, are either based on the Cold War model or extended from the concept of North & SouthClub. These are out of date and do not apply to the new situation.
It is not surprising if someone comes up with the following suggestions. That is, a framework beyond the government is set up to distribute the tax revenue of residents in the associated economy equally, that is, 1/3 of the tax revenue is given to countries outside the associated economy, and 1/3 is given to other neighboring countries of the associated economy, and finally 1/3 is owned by the state. Of course, the above suggestions also reflect my consistent view and proposition on the world, that is, to be a world citizen first, then a community resident, and finally a Japanese.
Readers may find good ideas for developing products, strategies and organizations for the companies they work for. As a management consultant and author, I hope this is where the production value lies. I also expect students to study this book well before hearing those old theories, so as to avoid being confined to stereotypes and not seeing the reality clearly or insisting on using old theories to explain everything.
Some people will inevitably think that if we want to talk about international organizations from product development and the problems of developing countries from currency and trade, this all-encompassing topic is too wide. However, my feeling is that it is necessary for us to bring these traditionally isolated themes together and introduce the characteristics of related economies in a borderless world. I believe that the arrival of 2 1 century will give us more favorable evidence to describe this new related economy, which is much larger than today's "state" organization, and we will also obtain legal citizenship in the new related economy for a longer period of time.
What I'm talking about below is at least an expectation, if not a prediction, hoping to transcend ideology in practical application. I have always believed that people, as innovators and well-informed consumers, will be more powerful than those who stick to the rules. And the role of conformism is exactly what we are afraid of.
Because this book was first published in 1990, that is, in the previous 20 years, the status of Japan and the United States as superpowers on the world stage has undergone the most obvious and tremendous changes. There is no doubt that Japan was called "miracle boy" in the 1980s, but it was replaced by the United States after 10. In fact, the economic development of the United States in the past 10 years was so remarkable that I want to give it an "A+".
How the United States jumped out of the quagmire of development, the speed of which almost exceeded everyone's expectations and imagination, has a strong reference significance for those countries that want to replicate its successful process. At the same time, it also interests people who work in multinational companies, because as far as they are concerned, they can learn how to better participate in the competition in this emerging economy. Therefore, I will examine here how the American economic miracle began. In the last chapter of this book, I will analyze and score the economic development of different countries in the world at the same time. At the same time, I will discuss the root of the "Asian financial crisis" and the sorrow of Japan's economic development, and make a personal prediction on which direction we should develop as a country (Japan), a region (Asia) and an associated economy in the future.
The United States experienced a serious economic recession in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Unemployment continues to rise, investment is weak, and the stock market is weak. At that time, almost all the cover articles published by Newsweek declared that "the American century is over" (however, 10 years later, the same weekly published a similar article declaring that "the Japanese/Asian century is over". In fact, Bill Clinton, the challenger who defeated George H.W. Bush at one fell swoop in the 1992 US presidential election, claimed in his ruling manifesto that China people should pay attention to a core issue, and "economy is the focus, fool" was Clinton's campaign slogan at that time. Strong economic development is also the reason for Clinton 1996' s re-election. Even after the 1998 Monica Lewinsky scandal broke out, Clinton was lucky to maintain a high support rate.
In my opinion, the recovery of American economy in the 1990s can't be attributed to Clinton's development strategy, but to a great extent to the fundamental changes brought about by the Reagan Revolution in the 1980s. Although Ronald Reagan, Clinton's predecessor, was neither a visionary nor an outstanding person with the most analytical mind, his deregulation of financial institutions, public transportation and telecommunications was really admirable. For example, the phenomenon of air ticket discount caused by vicious competition in the 1980 s made American airlines miserable and actually seriously threatened their survival. Although in the first 10 years after deregulation, the American aviation industry was almost miserable, with only recession and depression, and many airlines closed down one after another, today American airlines are one of the most powerful airlines in the world. The average cost of American Airlines jumbo jet per passenger mile is 55 cents. In contrast, the cost of the same jumbo jet is 1 for two Japanese airlines protected by economic policies. Five dollars. There is a three-fold cost gap between the two because of the protection surcharge.
Deregulation of American banking is equally painful. After Reagan's reform, more than 3,000 financial institutions declared bankruptcy. However, those institutions that have survived, such as Citibank and Morgan Stanley Bank, have become more indestructible and even become the mainstay of the global financial industry. In our new related economy, a bank can only be truly successful if it participates in global competition.
Telecommunications is another key area. After deregulation, the price of telecommunications has become more flexible, and at the same time, it has accelerated the popularization and application of the Internet. Various competitive telecom products enable consumers to access the server at a fixed price and choose services without restriction. Therefore, many companies in the United States set up local area networks (LANs) within their companies, and then connect WAN to enjoy telecommunications services.
In fact, the deregulation of infrastructure in the United States set the tone for economic expansion in the 1990s. Those institutions with improper management and serious losses are no longer unconditionally supported by protection policies, and will naturally be eliminated by reality, and a brand-new, healthy new economic policy of survival of the fittest has become the master of the world economy today. The prosperity of American domestic economy and its continuous stability in the global position mainly depend on the following reasons: 1? Due to the limitation of the function (and scale) of the federal government in the United States relative to local governments (such as States), it gives great flexibility to various regions. The central government of other countries has a strong influence, but it has no advantage in the real world without borders.
2? English has become a common language in the fields of global commerce, science and technology, e-commerce and so on. In fact, 80% of online transactions are done in English.
3? The dollar is used as the international settlement and reserve currency. Among the above three reasons, only the third one shows certain fragility, that is, the US dollar is used as the international settlement currency. With the emergence of Euro and the proposal of ASEAN (similar currency), these new "super currencies" may pose a threat to the strong dollar, and another element of them may limit its sustainable development, which I will introduce in the last chapter of this book.