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Tesla's next-generation car cost is reduced by 50%? Is it crazy talk or not too distant future?
On March 1 day, US time, Tesla held Investor Day 2023. At this investor communication meeting, Musk talked about the vision of sustainable energy economy in 3(Master Plan Part 3. He said that solar energy is a huge energy source. If the new energy production capacity (wind power, solar energy, batteries) is increased as planned before 2030, the energy can be 65,438+000% sustainable by 2050. In order to achieve this grand goal, Musk gave an amazing budget of 10 trillion dollars.

At the same time, Musk also revealed that the company is seeking to cut the assembly cost of the next generation of cars by 50%. It is reported that this goal can be achieved mainly through the following channels. First of all, we will continue to reduce the number of parts, decompose the car body into several parts, and improve the production efficiency by 30% from the perspective of time and space. Series assembly and parallel assembly will be carried out at the same time, such as assembling the interior from bottom to top and operating different parts at the same time. Tesla has repeatedly stressed that the final assembly of the vehicle will only need to be carried out once.

Secondly, Tesla's next-generation platform will reduce silicon carbide by 75%, and the next-generation permanent magnet motor will not use rare earth materials at all, which will reduce the total manufacturing cost of $65,438+$0,000, and reduce the factory floor space by 50% without losing energy efficiency. This can not only reduce the investment when building a factory, but also reduce the production cost.

In addition, Tesla also announced other initiatives, including new battery materials and 48V electrical systems.

Because it is a big name in the industry, Tesla and even Musk's remarks have caused heated public opinion, and everyone has begun to discuss whether Tesla can really cut assembly costs by 50%.

In fact, Musk has always been a person who cares about cost. For example, Tesla has always insisted on using the intelligent assisted driving scheme of visual recognition, because Musk believes that using lidar and ultrasonic radar will increase the cost. Moreover, Tesla has been doing component integration, such as CTC integration technology (automobile integrated die casting) which has recently been applied. Tesla Model Y adopts integrated die-casting rear floor assembly, which can reduce the weight of lower body assembly by 30% and the manufacturing cost by 40%.

From the perspective of cost reduction, CTC integration technology is indeed a good way to reduce manufacturing costs. However, everything has advantages and disadvantages. The components of CTC integration technology become larger, and the later maintenance is difficult. Now there are cases. After being rear-ended, the whole rear floor needs to be replaced, and the maintenance cost rises sharply, which means that the reduced cost is only passed on to the users, so that the users can bear the high maintenance cost in this later period. Even if there is insurance, the insurance company is not a fool and will definitely increase the vehicle premium accordingly.

As for optimizing the assembly process, the final assembly of the whole vehicle will only need to be carried out once. This idea can only be said to be beautiful, but it does not seem to take into account the process interference, component interference, space interference and other issues during assembly. Tesla also didn't explain his technical route, more like a slogan used to draw cakes.

Considering that this is an investor communication meeting, Tesla definitely needs to release some amazing slogans and ideas to attract investors' attention. These practices of Musk and Tesla are understandable. However, investors seem unable to understand what Musk said. On the same day, Tesla's share price fell 1.4%, and the after-hours decline expanded to 5.7%.

For the time being, it is not necessary to take seriously the statement that the assembly cost is reduced by 50%, because it is only a good wish in the short term, but even if the cost is only reduced by 65,438+00%, Tesla's competitiveness will be greatly enhanced. For the new energy automobile market, where the civil war is already fierce, every time the cost drops by one point, we can gain more confidence, which is also the direction that our domestic new energy automobile enterprises need to work hard.

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