1.

In September 2011, under the attack of the U.S. money printing campaign, the European economic crisis, and the Japanese nuclear crisis, the price of gold soared to 395.3 yuan/gram. There is a famous saying: Buy gold in troubled times. Once the world falls into turmoil, it will be good news for gold to skyrocket.

Regardless of the value humans assign to gold, it is actually just a pile of metal. For this reason, "Stock God" Buffett lamented that "gold is useless":

"Gold is dug out from the Americas, Africa or somewhere underground, melted and processed, and then dug into a luxurious underground palace. Hide them and send a bunch of people to guard them, euphemistically calling them a treasury. In fact, this thing is of no practical use. I’m afraid aliens won’t know what humans are doing. ”

In other words, even if it is not gold, humans will find another metal that has a small output and is easy to store to replace its role, using it to fight inflation and prevent economic crises. In fact, what humans guard is not gold, but the desire for wealth. This is like a self-entertaining game. Desire tempts humans behind the scenes, from inflation to collapse, over and over again. The rules of the game remain the same, but the protagonists are different.

2.

Who in the world doesn’t love gold? The Chinese say: "The book has its own beauty like jade, and the book has its own house of gold." However, there is a country that has fallen into inflation due to the proliferation of gold. Isn’t it said that gold is a weapon against inflation?

In the 14th century, Spain conquered more than 20 million square kilometers of land in the Americas with only more than 600 people. From Columbus's discovery of the New World in 1492 to the decline of the empire in 1640, Spain seized 875 tons of gold and 45,000 silver from the Americas, accounting for 83% of the world's precious metal mining volume at that time. When converted into Chinese silver taels at the time, there were almost 2.5 billion taels, creating a powerful nation. of the Spanish Empire.

As Spanish colonists frantically mined gold mines, more and more gold was circulating in the market. The biggest mistake they made was not using this wealth to develop the economy, but to build a large army. There is more and more gold, and the more Spain grabs, the more it expands. In the past half century, gold has been rampant, and prices in Europe have more than quadrupled.

In order to maintain national hegemony, Spain has fallen into an endless loop: the desire to dominate Europe forces Spain to fight constantly. To fight, it has to spend money to purchase military supplies, and to purchase supplies, it has to let the enemy make money. The enemy has If money is dissatisfied with your rule, it will continue to fight with you. As a result, Spain's opponents became stronger and stronger, while Spain became weaker and weaker.

Spain has gold when it succeeds and gold when it fails. Greed led to the proliferation of gold and made it worthless. "Gold", which was originally a symbol of wealth, went further and further on the road of inflation, leading to the collapse of the Spanish Empire.

3.

When humans are madly pursuing wealth and hegemony, inflation has opened the eyes of chaos and created one economic tragedy after another. It teaches mankind the most painful lessons by destroying wealth and desire.

When inflation strikes, a country that was once extremely rich, a country that is extremely rich in resources, can fall into despair and hell. How terrible is inflation? Ridiculously speaking, it can devalue wealth (currency) to the point where it is less valuable than toilet paper.

For example, when Spain was so poor that only gold was left, the Netherlands was so poor that only tulips were left.

In the 17th century, tulips were introduced to the Netherlands. As a favorite of dignitaries, the price is constantly being speculated and soaring. Some speculators are ready to take action and hoard large amounts of tulips to sell at a higher price. In 1634, the tulip craze spread into a national movement in the Netherlands. At that time, a tulip root cost 1,000 yuan. Less than a month later, it appreciated to 20,000 yuan. The price soared 20 times. This huge profit exceeded the stock market and property market.

How big is the tulip craze? Whether they are nobles, citizens, farmers, craftsmen, boatmen, or even chimney sweeps, they have all joined the speculative movement of tulips. Desire buries mankind's fear of collapse crisis. People were frantically turning their possessions into cash just to buy a tulip.

In order to facilitate transactions, the Netherlands has also established a fixed trading market.

Finally, how high are tulips being sold? For example, in 1637, a precious tulip sold for as much as 6,700 guilders, which was enough to buy a mansion on the canal in Amsterdam. At that time, the average annual income of the Dutch was only 150 guilders.

There must be an inflation bubble under the artificially high prices. On February 4, 1637, a sudden sell-off plunged the Netherlands into panic, and the price of tulips plummeted. A week later, the price had plummeted by 90, and the ordinary varieties were not even worth the price of an onion. Countless people went bankrupt and wailed.

4.

I once saw a video of a stampede incident. At the scene of a fire, investigators unexpectedly discovered that most of the victims were not killed by the fire; In a desperate attempt to escape, he was trampled to death by the crowd. The tragedy that could have been avoided was ruined by a disorderly escape. This scene is very similar to the exodus after the US stock market crash.

For example, when the Netherlands was so poor that only tulips were left, the United States was so poor that only stocks were left.

Back in the early 20th century, the United States had just won the First World War, and wealth and opportunities were pouring in like crazy. In 1927, the first wave of stock market mania began in the United States.

For a time, the stock market became a national movement. You can make a fortune just by flipping a few stocks. This is simply a money printing machine. From New York and San Francisco to rural towns, investors can be found everywhere, and even shoe shiners are trading in stocks.

However, the enthusiastic stock market did not bring good luck to the United States. The stock market is booming here, while the U.S. economy is plummeting over there, with the unemployment rate hitting a post-World War I high. How can the stock market go so far without the support of economic forces?

The stock market is soaring like a wild horse, and inflation is happening. Some bankers are beginning to worry that in the current market environment of weak U.S. trade and bloated credit, there will be such high stock prices. Are people crazy? There are always people who understand under the chaos. The father of US President Kennedy escaped from the stock market in time. His escape from a high position established the wealth status of the Kennedy family.

In the summer of 1929, the myth of skyrocketing stock prices continued to unfold, and countless millionaires were born in the United States. As long as the stock market is still rising, investors will spend money like crazy. They boldly take out loans and invest the borrowed money in the stock market. Although the interest rate of such current loans is as high as 8 to 9, as long as it is profitable, greedy investors will dare to take risks. Little did they know that the stock market crash was just around the corner.

The nationwide craze for stock speculation has caused funds to continue to flow into the stock market. The stock market is full of bubbles, stock prices are artificially high, and market value is inflated. On October 29, 1929, known as "Black Tuesday" in history, the stock index fell from its highest point of 386 points to 298 points, a drop of 22%.

A "stampede" in the stock market has taken place. Investors are selling their stocks regardless of price, fearing that they will become waste paper in the next moment. The more the selling, the more panicked, and the trading volume reached an astronomical 16 million shares, setting a record in the past 40 years. Many millionaires became paupers, and thousands suffered mental breakdowns and committed suicide by jumping off buildings.

In the three years after the stock market crash, 5,000 banks in the United States collapsed, at least 130,000 companies went bankrupt, and automobile output dropped by 95%. According to statistics, the total industrial output and national income of the United States have plummeted by nearly half, the economic level has regressed for 10 years, the unemployment rate has hit a record, 1 in every 4 people is unemployed, and the United States and the world have entered a 10-year economic Great Depression. .

5.

As the wheel of history rolls forward, human beings always heal their scars and forget the pain. The stock market bubble is not far behind, and a Bitcoin story is sweeping the market.

From the initial price of 1,300 Bitcoins, the price of Bitcoin has soared more than 5 million times in eight years. Currently, Bitcoin has risen to 4,000 US dollars per coin, starting a skyrocketing path. Decentralization, non-replicability, fast cross-border transfer time, low handling fees, support for cross-border small-amount payments, and the ability to view historical accounts in real time make Bitcoin highly sought after.

However, compared with legal tender, Bitcoin does not have the credit endorsement of a sovereign country, its payment function is still not accepted by the public, and it is full of unknown risks.

The hot market of Bitcoin is more like a speculative movement, and the speculative bubble has triggered value inflation. People invest in Bitcoin to drive up the price and make a fortune by selling at the high point. This model does not create wealth, it just transfers it. This is like a precursor to the tulip bubble.

In addition, many "Bitcoin-like" virtual currencies have appeared in the world, which will pose a challenge to the price of Bitcoin. If the bubble bursts, the skyrocketing Bitcoin will inevitably suffer a tragic fate.

6.

Looking back, the sound of the property market bubble bursting seems to be ringing in the distance.

Let’s first look at the example of Spain. Between 2001 and 2007, house prices in the capital Madrid rose from about 1,800 per square meter to 4,000 (about 29,000 yuan). The increase was as high as 122 per square meter in six years. The economic crisis and European The debt crisis caused the Spanish real estate bubble to burst. Since 2008, the real estate market has plummeted across the board, with an average drop of about 50% and an individual drop of 70%. After the Spanish real estate market bubble burst, it was discovered that more than 20 houses were empty. Before the collapse, houses were constantly being built and sold. On the surface, it seemed that demand exceeded supply! In fact, there are no real needs here anymore, and the number of apartments available is all bought for speculation! The population keeps pouring in, and there are not enough houses to live in. It is all nonsense, just to cover up the truth of the bubble!

In addition, after a national real estate speculation movement, Japan’s house prices plummeted by 49.56; U.S. house prices were ruthlessly cut in half during the subprime mortgage crisis; the overall house price in Hong Kong, China, also fell by as much as 70. More than 100,000 Hong Kong people have become "negative assets"; during the economic crisis in the mainland city of Wenzhou in 2008, house prices plummeted by 30-40%, and the prices of individual luxury homes were even sold at a 50% discount. These are bloody facts.

No matter how many turmoils the real estate market has experienced in the past, the strong housing prices in first-tier cities have made the Chinese people still believe in the myth that the real estate market will not break down. On this side, there are people who are desperately investing in the real estate speculation craze, watching the housing prices in first-tier cities hit new highs. However, in fact, housing prices in first-tier cities have been on a slight downward trend; on the other side, some business tycoons have no regard for the property market. Gradually plan to withdraw from the real estate industry.

As early as the 2017 Wanda Annual Meeting, Wang Jianlin announced that in principle, Wanda Commercial will no longer be asset-heavy after 2020 and will all be asset-light. In addition to the supporting residences in Wanda City, it will no longer New residential developments have been added, and the industry has gradually withdrawn from the real estate development industry. Then, Wanda continued to lose weight, materialize, shrink, and exit. In July, Wanda transferred all its equity in 77 city hotels and 91 equity interests in 13 cultural tourism projects to R&F and Sunac for a total price of 63.75 billion yuan. Subsequently, Wanda intensively recovered at least 40 billion yuan of the registered capital of the Wanda Plaza project company.

Before Wang Jianlin sold his reinforced concrete body and left behind his asset-light soul, Hong Kong's richest man Li Ka-shing had already made moves. After selling Shanghai Pudong Century Plaza in 2016, he quickly sold it again Hong Kong Central Centre. This Hong Kong tycoon who has survived two oil crises, the Middle East war, the Asian financial crisis and the world financial crisis has an investment principle that is "not to earn the last copper penny". Regarding the property market, this shrewd businessman said: If the price of real estate is too high and it becomes unaffordable for ordinary people, there will be risks. I will not take the risk to earn the last copper.

The value of a house is supposed to be for people to live in, but it has become an investment product to make huge profits through trading and speculation. If things go on like this, the property market prices will get higher and higher, and the bubble will continue to expand. This is like the stock market. Some people see that the first people who speculate in real estate make money, so the people behind follow the trend and continue to buy and sell at high prices. People frantically invest huge amounts of money. In the end, the property market bubble could no longer hold on (there are precedents abroad), and the naked swimmers did not exit in time, but became the last to take over. This is very dangerous.

7.

Anyone who has played competitive games such as DOTA will understand that the gap between two or more parties in a game is too large due to competition and head count, resulting in an irreversible phenomenon. Call it a crash.

When too much money pours into an industry, prices are driven higher and higher, and when no one takes over, it will collapse, and the value of the product will be reduced to a pile of waste paper. Behind every crash lies the endless desire of human beings. When desire breaks through the boundaries of reason, the outcome becomes uncontrollable.

What we can do is to use the remaining rationality to restore the nature of the economy when the entire population is involved in a transaction of desires, and try to avoid the misfortune of being abandoned by the world after the collapse.

From today on, we must learn to work hard, stay away from asset bubbles, and face the risks of speculation. There is no eternal myth of getting rich overnight, nor is there any permanent success that comes without hard work. Every achievement you win through speculation may be returned one day in the future. The nightmare of collapse lurks around us and may be detonated at any time.

After every crash, everyone's destiny will be redefined. Some people successfully escape the crisis, some are despairing, and some are reborn. I just hope that we will not make the same mistakes again in the face of desire.