The new economic normal requires innovating macro-control ideas and methods, enriching and perfecting new control means, so that China's economy will continue to maintain steady and healthy development after entering the new normal. Macro-control under the new economic normal is a dynamic evolution process with the following characteristics.
Highlight supply thinking and deal with the decline of potential growth rate
First of all, the main contradiction facing China's economy at present is the long-term slowdown, so the idea of supply management is more important. In the medium and long term, China economy has various "supply constraints" in population and labor, capital and finance, resources and property rights, technology and innovation, system and division of labor. Only by relaxing the family planning and household registration system, reducing capital and financial control, optimizing the property right structure of land and resources, and promoting institutional reforms in inefficient areas such as state-owned enterprises, can we lift the "supply constraint" and improve the long-term potential growth rate of the economy.
Secondly, many problems in economic operation also need supply thinking to be fundamentally solved. Such as overcapacity. Judging from the reasons for overcapacity, although there are cyclical factors, the more important ones are institutional and supply-side reasons. This is mainly reflected in the convergence of industrial policy orientation by local governments in order to obtain industrial preferences, step up support and competition (such as providing land, funds, taxes, etc.). ), leading to the homogenization of industrial structure between regions is more common, which in turn leads to a large number of overcapacity. Therefore, if we want to solve the overcapacity from the root, we need to highlight the thinking of supply management.
Thirdly, emphasizing supply thinking is not to give up demand management, but to expand demand sometimes depends on supply management. Although it is necessary to expand demand during the economic downturn, it is not enough to rely solely on demand management to expand domestic demand. Expansion needs to rely on investment and consumption. As far as investment demand is concerned, the main problem is not the total amount but the structure. The important investment direction in the future should be infrastructure construction, but the investment structure needs to be adjusted in this respect. As far as consumer demand is concerned, it is difficult to achieve the goal of expanding consumer demand without adjusting the income distribution structure and changing the industrial structure and factor input structure. From this perspective, expanding domestic demand is not a simple demand management, but also depends on supply management. The government should reduce the micro-subjects' heavy dependence on the demand expansion policy, give full play to the incentive role of the supply policy, and pay attention to structural optimization and sustainable development.
Clarify the "upper limit", "lower limit" and "bottom line" and improve interval control.
The so-called interval control is not simply to determine an absolute number (for example, the growth target is 8%), but can be adjusted appropriately within a certain constraint interval. This constraint is the upper limit, the lower limit and the bottom line. More precisely, interval control is the "lower limit" to maintain steady growth and employment, grasp the "upper limit" to prevent inflation, and never break through the bottom line of people's livelihood and financial risks.
The literal understanding of the "bottom line" should be lower than the "lower limit", and the two have different emphases. When the economic growth rate and employment decline even exceed the lower limit, macro policies should be exerted to avoid touching the bottom line of employment and people's livelihood. Bottom line thinking is an important way to actively adapt to the new normal. Bottom line thinking involves at least three aspects: First, the social bottom line. That is, "social policies should be bottomed out." The bottom line of social policy is to ensure that low-income groups have basic living security, and most people live a stable life and maintain social stability. Without social stability, there will be no stable economic growth. The second is the growth bottom line. In the reasonable growth range, emphasize the upper limit, lower limit and bottom line. Among them, the bottom line is to ensure that a well-off society will be built in an all-round way by 2020, achieve the goal of doubling the GDP ratio of 20 10, and make the average annual GDP growth rate reach at least 6.5% in the next few years. The third is the bottom line of financial risk. In terms of financial risks, we should guard against regional and systemic risks. Especially during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan period, the bottom line to be kept is that a financial crisis cannot break out.
The "upper limit", "lower limit" and "bottom line" define the reasonable range of macroeconomic operation, and the adjustment of the range can make the adjustment more calm and will not be frequently "attacked" because of the short-term fluctuation of macroeconomic indicators. As long as the economy operates in a reasonable range, we can maintain the basic stability of macro policies, do not engage in strong incentives, and do not make major policy adjustments, giving market players stable expectations and confidence. Adhering to interval control can also pay more attention to structural adjustment and reform within a reasonable growth interval.
Understand economic heterogeneity and unbalanced growth and pay attention to structural adjustment.
Compared with mature market economy, an important feature of developing economies is strong economic heterogeneity and uneven growth, which makes structural problems very prominent.
There are two structural problems in China's economy: one is the institutional structure, involving state-owned and non-state-owned, institutional transformation and dual-track system transition, the relationship between the central and local governments, and the relationship between the government and the market. The other is economic structure, including industrial structure, regional structure, distribution structure, growth power structure, urban-rural dual structure, population age structure and so on. It is precisely because there are a series of structural problems and they are still in the process of structural upheaval that structural regulation becomes very necessary: First, structural upheaval means the change of macro-control basis and policy transmission mechanism, which may lead to the failure of total regulation; Secondly, rapid structural changes lead to changes in factor income and factor flow, and it is easy to lead to structural imbalance when the price signal is inaccurate and imperfect, which makes structural regulation essential; Third, structural upheaval and structural imbalance make many problems not only short-term macro-stability problems, but also involve the coordination between short-term macro-control and medium-and long-term development, and structural adjustment is particularly critical for medium-and long-term sustainable development.
Different structural problems will form different structural control ideas. In terms of institutional structure, in view of the incomplete economic transformation and the dual-track transition, the idea of dual-track regulation has been formed, that is, the combination of administrative regulation and market regulation. The existence of economic structural problems makes structural regulation and total regulation pay equal attention. Industrial policy, trade policy, exchange rate policy, capital control, strict financial supervision and balanced fiscal policy with obvious characteristics of administrative intervention and structural control have all played an important role in promoting economic growth and macroeconomic stability.
When the economy enters the new normal, the institutional structural problems will gradually weaken, but the economic structural problems will still exist for a long time. Therefore, structural regulation is still indispensable. In fact, even in developed economies, there will be many structural problems (which have been fully exposed in the current crisis), which need structural reforms and related structural policies to deal with. Therefore, adhering to structural control will be an important feature of macro-control.
"Hand in hand" strategic planning and fiscal and monetary policies have broadened the macro-control vision.
Macroeconomic policies are often understood as paying more attention to short-term fluctuations, which is why Keynes, known as the originator of macroeconomics, famously said: In the long run, we will all die. In fact, the western stability policy, which focuses on fiscal policy and monetary policy, really aims to smooth out short-term fluctuations. With the emergence of growth economics and new growth theory, macroeconomics and macro-policy pay attention to medium and long-term problems. However, there is no long-term corresponding "exclusive management" policy in mainstream textbooks.
In China, macro-control consists of "Troika", namely, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China. This not only has the traditional fiscal and monetary policy, but also increases the long-term strategic planning. In this way, the combination of far and near, short-term and medium-and long-term convergence have been realized, and the vision of macro-control has been extended. American scholar Sachs is very envious of China's five-year plan. He believes that China, the fastest growing economy in the world, relies on the "five-year plan" of public investment, while there is no similar institution in the United States. But now all countries need five-year planning or more; They need a 20-year intergenerational strategy to build skills, infrastructure and a 2 1 century low-carbon economy.
Specifically, it is necessary to strengthen the macro-guidance and overall coordination functions of national development strategies and plans, and give full play to the comprehensive coordination role of national development plans on government budget arrangements, fiscal fund utilization, land space development, rational allocation of resources and other policies and measures. Planning mainly points out the future development direction and important focus, and many planning and investment projects are directly linked to the budget arrangement. Therefore, when planning, we should consider the financial affordability and expenditure structure. At the same time, the tightness of monetary policy should also be adapted to the planning objectives. In addition, fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated with the industrial and price policies of the National Development and Reform Commission. For example, the industrial policy of NDRC is directly related to the budget arrangement and tax preference of fiscal policy, and the price reform of NDRC may affect the position of monetary policy.
In the new normal stage, we should change the way of frequent regulation and control in the past, pay more attention to a reform idea and method, incorporate reform into macro-control, organically combine short-term regulation and control policies with long-term development policies, organically combine steady growth with structural adjustment, effectively solve deep-seated and structural problems, and promote China's stable, healthy and balanced economic development.
Establish a new baton of supervision and restart local competition
At the beginning of 20 15, there was a phenomenon worthy of attention, that is, GDP targets were lowered everywhere. Under the background that the economy has entered a new normal of structural slowdown, it should be expected that such a situation will occur. In a sense, this is still a big step forward. Because the economy has entered a new normal, the key is to pursue the efficiency and quality of growth, and more importantly, to pay attention to social development and environmental ecology. This just shows that the new macro-control baton of "not talking about heroes by GDP" has played a role. The question is, if local competition does not take GDP as the baton, what incentive mechanism will be used to mobilize local enthusiasm?
We believe that local competition under the new normal should shift from competing for GDP to competing for public goods and services. From competing for GDP to competing for public goods and services, it means weakening the GDP assessment mechanism of local governments and putting local public services, market supervision, employment level, social security, maintaining public order and environmental protection in a more prominent position.
The new baton of "not judging heroes by GDP" only points out the direction of competition, but does not provide incentives for competition. Therefore, to restart local competition, we need to make a fuss about strengthening positive incentives. The key is to straighten out the power and responsibility relationship between the central and local governments and establish an incentive-compatible mechanism. First, expand local legislative power so that it can handle local affairs as appropriate. Second, the central government departments should further concentrate their financial resources, reduce special transfer payments, and correspondingly reduce improper intervention in local governments. The third is to allow local governments to collect some local taxes in combination with local conditions without violating the unity of national policies. The fourth is to promote the reform of consumption tax, and the collection will be moved from the production link to the retail link and changed to local collection. The original consumption tax 100% belongs to the central government. Now, can it be considered local (or mainly local)? The fifth is to increase the local share of VAT. At present, the ratio of central and local value-added tax is 3: 1. Can we consider adjusting it to 50: 50 to expand local financial power and stimulate local vitality?
Consider the interest game and grasp the political economy of macro-control
First of all, acknowledge the initiative of all stakeholders and prevent policy overshoot. Today's socialist market economy has formed many stakeholders, including local governments and markets. If the decision-making department is too nervous, policies are frequently introduced, and feedback is given at the local or market level, policy overshoot may occur due to overreaction.
Secondly, the influence of interest game on the formation of macro-control decisions. Macro-control generally has two directions: one is expansion and the other is austerity. When expanding, which departments, industries or people will benefit; When tightening, which departments, industries or people will be hurt. Therefore, regardless of expansion or contraction, people will lobby, make various analyses and make "suggestions". This needs to be carefully weighed in macro-control, and the starting point of macro-control is to improve people's well-being.
Third, the role of the central and local governments in implementing macro-control. In the market economy, after having a considerable amount of disposable resources and decision-making power, the local government gradually reveals its unique economic interests, and the game arises. In the process of implementing the central policy, local governments are no longer as uncompromising as in the past, but are selective and biased in their own interests and preferences. In this way, the effect of macro-control will be greatly reduced. This requires standardizing the behavior of local governments, adjusting the evaluation system of local governments, and strengthening the authority of the central government through institutionalization and legalization. , make government decrees smooth and macro-control more effective.
Grasping the political economy of macro-control means emphasizing that the macro-control of the new normal should have game thinking. When formulating and implementing policies, we should observe calmly, act cautiously, think about the interests of all parties in the game and their possible reactions, and try our best to make macro-control policies "fair" and "effective" on the premise of deepening our understanding of the micro-foundation and operational mechanism of macro-control.
Pay attention to the spillover effect of big countries and implement responsible macro policies.
The development of economic globalization has formed interdependence among different economies. Although there has been a voice of "de-globalization" since the crisis (including the voice of "isolationism" in the United States), in fact this interdependence will not disappear. With interdependence, there will be spillover effects. Moreover, China has become a big country and the second largest economy in the world. The impact of every move on the world, that is, spillover effect, cannot be ignored. The spillover effect of big countries requires strengthening international policy coordination and urging countries to implement responsible economic policies.
First, accelerate the formation of a mechanism to participate in international macroeconomic policy coordination. Closely follow the international economic and financial situation and changes in macroeconomic policies of major economies, carefully assess and analyze their impact on China's macroeconomic and policy implementation, actively strengthen policy coordination and communication with major economies, participate more actively in multilateral and bilateral international economic cooperation, enhance the right to speak internationally, promote the reform of international macroeconomic governance structure, promote the international economic order to be more just and reasonable, create a good institutional environment for China, expand development space, and safeguard open interests.
The second is to urge countries to implement responsible economic policies. On the one hand, we should attach importance to the China factor of world development, that is, both development planning and macro-policy formulation should take into account the potential influence of China on the outside world. Although we pursue an independent policy and manage China's own affairs, China's policy is no longer China's business, which is the consciousness of a responsible big country. On the other hand, paying attention to the influence and impact of external factors on China requires relevant countries to adopt responsible economic policies. For example, the United States should pay attention to the spillover effects of its own economic and financial policies (such as the possible global impact of monetary policy normalization) and adopt responsible economic policies. This requires self-discipline and certain mechanisms (such as G20) for mutual supervision and coordination.
Respect for "market determinism" and macro-control cannot dominate the world.
In China, the scope of macro-control has not been clearly defined. According to the most authoritative formulation (the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's Decision on Deepening Reform in an All-round Way), the main tasks of macro-control are to maintain the balance of economic aggregate, promote the coordination of major economic structures and the optimization of productivity distribution, slow down the impact of economic cycle fluctuations, guard against regional and systemic risks, stabilize social expectations, and achieve sustained and healthy economic development. Because there are so many macro-control objectives (far exceeding the output, employment, prices and international payments mentioned in general textbooks), there must be so many policy means ("Dingbergen's Law"). Considering that China is still in the process of transformation and development and drastic structural changes, the current macro-control system and means are still not perfect, and the generalization of macro-control is inevitable.
What needs to be pointed out here is that the generalization of macro-control has a self-reinforcing logic. On the one hand, when the economic system is not perfect and we can't completely rely on market means to solve problems, we will think of various tricks, such as underground gates and credit gates, and sometimes we will use "black jobs", and then find them very effective. On the other hand, with the generalization of macro-control, the role of the market mechanism itself is often restricted, which is not conducive to the real formation of the market mechanism. This has created conditions or "excuses" for the generalization of macro-control.
Perhaps it has been in the process of macro-control, or it may have been "dependent" on macro-control (for example, when the economy is not good, it is expected to stimulate). Except some departments think that macro-control is omnipotent, even ordinary market reference objects and control objects think that macro-control can win the world. In fact, the highest state of macro-control is that people can't feel its existence (the so-called "moistening things silently"). Those who rely on macro-control to solve major and minor issues in the economy, such as fluctuations and market conditions, have problems. Macro-control cannot dominate the world, especially today when the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation.
Macro-control is essentially a kind of government intervention in the market, which must be based on respect and handling affairs according to market rules. The new normal of macro-control is based on "market determinism", promoting market-oriented reform, consolidating the micro-foundation of macro-control, improving the policy transmission mechanism, and relying more on market-oriented means to regulate the economy.
Promote the "institutionalized" construction and construct the basic follow-up of macro-control.
The mechanism to realize macro-control decision-making and implementation can be determined to make decisions before moving. Without institutionalization, various policies will be introduced frequently, various departments will come together, various tools will be put together, and even some conventional restrictions will be broken under the pretext of special circumstances, making macro-control very "willful" and causing passiveness in the future: First, there are piles of problems that need to be "digested"; Second, it failed to provide a positive and good follow-up, and will continue to be so "willful" and have no "rules" in the future. The lack of mechanism in macro-decision-making may be the most important sign that the macro-control mechanism is immature. To promote institutionalized construction, we should start from the following aspects.
The first is to explore the establishment of general policy rules. The first is the monetary policy rules. Generally, there is an inflation targeting system (many countries are pegged to inflation) or an employment priority system (for example, how low the unemployment rate will be before the normalization of monetary policy, like the United States). Second, fiscal policy rules. There are two main types: one is to directly stipulate the deficit ceiling, debt scale or proportion. For example, the United States has set a federal government debt ceiling, which can only be adjusted with the approval of Congress; The other is to prepare a long-term budget to ensure fiscal balance in the economic cycle, and allow fiscal policy to increase deficits and debts in the economic recession to promote economic recovery, but to repay debts with fiscal surplus in the economic boom.
The second is the institutionalization of decision making. Promote the institutionalization of macro-control objectives and policy formulation. Establish and improve the mechanism of economic situation analysis and judgment, and reasonably determine the expected goals of macro-control; Establish and improve the working mechanism of major issues research and policy reserve; Establish and improve democratic decision-making mechanisms and policy evaluation and adjustment mechanisms.
The third is the coordination mechanism. Promote the overall coordination mechanism of macro-control policies. Multi-level policy communication and coordination mechanisms should be established between macro-control departments and between macro-control departments and other relevant departments, and comprehensive evaluation and coordination of policies, especially major policy adjustments, should be made as a whole to avoid individual policies being fragmented, their effectiveness offsetting each other or overlapping excessively. In order to prevent some departments from not cooperating or "countersigning" in the process of coordination, institutions with sufficient authority and decision-making ability should be responsible for coordination and communication to improve decision-making efficiency.
The fourth is the institutionalization of constraints. Establish and improve the relevant restriction and supervision mechanism. Establish and improve the corresponding accountability, inquiry, error correction and other systems, strengthen inner-party supervision, legal supervision, public opinion supervision and other supervision, guide and urge governments at all levels and relevant government departments to adhere to scientific decision-making, democratic decision-making, decision-making according to law, and correctly exercise macro-control rights.