The overall estimate of the signal is close to the bottom of history.
Experts believe that compared with the history of the past 20 years, the current valuation of A shares is at an absolute low level. According to the data, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1664 in the second half of 2008, the market valuation was only 15 times according to the static P/E ratio at that time. According to the calculation of Tianxiang Investment, when the Shanghai Composite Index falls back to around 2500 points, the average P/E ratio of all A shares is 17 times, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is about 13.4 times. Historically, these values are similar to the estimated 998 points in 2005, 1664 points in 2008 and 23 19 points in 20 10. Correspondingly, although the Shanghai Composite Index has not fallen back to 1664, the share prices of many stocks have fallen below the level of 20081October 28th 1664. According to Wind statistics, as of August 8th, among the comparable 1594 A-shares, excluding the newly listed stocks since October 28th, 2008, 44 stocks were lower than the level of Shanghai Composite Index 1664.
In addition, the newly issued SZSE 300ETF (a trading open index fund with SZSE 300 index as the target), which consists of 22/KLOC-0 main board stocks, 73 small and medium board stocks and 6 GEM stocks, believes that the overall valuation of A shares is close to the bottom of history, and the investment opportunities in the future market will be interpreted along the two main lines of growth and structure.
Signal two, private placement? Break? It is difficult to issue additional shares publicly.
From the experience, private placement is frequent? Break? It is often one of the signals that the market has bottomed out. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 172 companies have issued plans for the issuance of additional shares. By the close of last Friday, 60 stocks had fallen below the price floor or planned price.
At the same time, the weakness of the market is also reflected in the cold shoulder of public offering. Take the public offering results of Weihai Guang Tai in August 1 day as an example. Haitong Securities, as the lead underwriter, needs to underwrite10.76 million shares, accounting for 462 1% of the issued amount. In this regard, it is generally predicted in the industry that if the stock market remains volatile, the underwriting risk of additional underwriters may further increase, public offerings cannot be sold, and a large proportion of underwriters' subscription balance may occur frequently.
Signal three? Breaking the net be of frequent occurence
During the five trading days last week, the Shanghai Composite Index once fell to a new low of 2,437.68 points. In this process, the number of non-ST shares in the A-share market that fell below the net assets once reached 14. As of last Friday's close, this? Breaking the net There are still 10 stocks in the ranks.
On August 9, the day when A shares plummeted to the bottom, the two cities? Breaking the net The number of stocks reached 14, except for the A-share market. Pioneer? Steel plate, road and railway plate stocks also joined? Breaking the net Action. In fact, besides already? Breaking the net There are many stocks in the two cities that may join the ranks at any time. The data shows that there are currently 227 stocks with a P/B ratio between 1 and 2 times.
Historically, broken net stocks? Appearing in groups often means that the market is not far from the bottom. However, some experts believe that? Breaking the net It may not bottom out.
Current A shares? Breaking the net The P/B ratio of most stocks is quite close to or even lower than the level when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1664 in 2008. Analysts pointed out that from the perspective of the whole market, there is still a certain gap between the number of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 times and the 2008 low. Statistics show that when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1664 on October 28th, 2008, there were 175 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Breaking the net And the industry distribution is wider than it is now. Therefore, Zhao Qiaomin, a strategist at Guangzhou Securities, thinks? A dozen stocks? Breaking the net Doesn't mean bottoming out, in a bear market, breaking the net? It's also normal. ?
? From the history of A shares, when? Breaking the net The real bottom can only come when a large number of stocks appear. ? Guosen Securities Fan Yonggang said that the current stock market volume is shrinking, the economic environment is not optimistic, and the index continues to rise with insufficient motivation. In the next few months, the number of broken net stocks may continue to increase, and the bottom may be far away.
Signal 4 low-priced stocks expand, some stocks? What is the price of cabbage?
The recent continuous decline has also made? 2 yuan shares? 、? 3 yuan shares? The camp has expanded dramatically. On August 9th, the number of stocks below 4 yuan in the two cities was as high as 60. Calculated by the closing price in August 12, this number has reached 47, of which? 2 yuan shares? Seven,? 3 yuan shares? 40. In addition, there are as many as 60 stocks whose share prices are above 4 yuan and below 5 yuan. Comparing this set of data, when the market hit a new high in April 18 this year, the prices of only 26 stocks in the two cities were below 4 yuan.
At the same time, the valuation of large-cap blue-chip stocks continued to fall in the plunge. In terms of weighted prices, a total of 18 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index hit a record low last week, and many stocks have fallen below the level of 1664. According to statistics, among the comparable 1594 stocks, the share price of 44 stocks is lower than 1664 points. As far as the industry is concerned, these companies are mainly distributed in chemical, steel, electric power, transportation, securities and other industries, and are still dominated by blue-chip companies. Among them, there are as many as 32 stocks below 10 yuan.
Signal five stock index futures long and short confrontation
Is the long-short confrontation of stock index futures a market bottoming? Signal light? . As of last Friday, according to the data released by China Financial Futures Exchange, the main short position in the stock index futures market has been declining for three consecutive weeks since it reached a stage high on July 22, indicating that the short-selling atmosphere in the market has weakened.
The data shows that in July, the main players in the stock index futures market continued to increase their chips, and the number of short positions continued to increase, reaching a stage high on July 22. On July 23rd, A shares fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by as much as 2.96% in a single day, which opened the prelude to the subsequent plunge. Since the beginning of August, with the sharp drop of the stock index, the main short sellers began to take profits gradually, and their positions fell sharply. However, the bulls did not increase their positions, and their positions were still far less than those of the bears.
On August 17, stock index futures rose, and the main contract opened slightly lower and then rose above 2900 points. Beijing Jin Peng Futures said that the short-term bottom has been basically proved, but after a week's correction, the stock index faces strong resistance from the top.