Simplicity is most effective. "If you believe that simplicity is as important as cost, then you will be willing to make more efforts to pursue simplicity. Simplicity is an important value worth pursuing, and we should develop the habit of thinking about simplicity as a fixed thought."

Why is simplicity the most effective in the market? Because only simplicity is the most operable, imagine if there are more than eight conditions in your buying and selling conditions, regardless of whether these trading conditions overlap after they are attributed. What is the chance that eight conditions are met at random? It is undeniable that conditions that are met at the same time exist, so have you ever thought about how far the market goes when the conditions are met at the same time?

We should clearly realize that different trading opportunities have different conditions, and no one has the ability to seize all trading opportunities. All we can do is lock in one or two trading opportunities. If there is a way to seize specific trading opportunities above 80% in stocks, that would be enough.

A fundamental trader can specialize in trading growth stocks or growth stocks subdivided into the Internet sector, or a conservative trader can specialize in trading blue chip stocks and make tons of money every year. Chart traders can specialize in trading heads, shoulders, bottoms, or round bottoms. In fact, it really doesn’t matter what fundamental stock picking or graphic trading you choose. The important thing is that you should stick to only these two trading opportunities. If you do too much, this trading opportunity will become your cash machine. You know most of the traps, and you also know when the money it contains beckons.

Another important point of the simple path is to focus on the key points and not cover everything. Fortunately, we must also clearly realize that the market is a trading place for people, and human hearts are traded here. Human hearts are fickle and not mechanical. Countless human hearts combine to form an unpredictable and extremely complex complex. system. Faced with such a system, we constantly evaluate whether the important conditions in the trading strategy are met. A comprehensive approach may be the perfect foundation in other areas, but for traders, focusing on the key points is the way to improve trading performance. Comprehensive thinking can only take you further and further away from reality.

Although he finally committed suicide in poverty and said that my "life was a failure." ?But Livermore's precise trading timing techniques, money management systems, and revolutionary trading methods are still used today. We can learn from his successful experiences, remember the lessons of his failures, and let ourselves grow.

1. There is nothing new in Wall Street (the stock market) because speculation has been around for a long time. What happened in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again in the future! Because human nature never changes.

Comment: Let "This time it's different" become a joke on Wall Street.

2. Speculation is the most magical game in the world, but this game is not suitable for stupid people, not suitable for people with lazy thinking, not suitable for people with unsound minds, and not suitable for people whose minds are full of getting rich overnight. A person with extravagant hopes. If these people engage in speculation rashly, they will end up penniless.

Comments: Everything is true.

3. Assuming that a businessman opens a new store, he probably will not expect to get more than 25 profits from this investment in the first year, but for those who enter the field of speculation, 25 is the minimum. The standards are not enough. What they want is a profit of 100, and their ideas cannot withstand scrutiny. They do not believe that speculation is a serious business behavior, but operate according to business principles.

Comment: This is clearly the idea of ??price investment!

4. The biggest enemy of investors or speculators is human nature.

Comments: Everyone can understand this sentence. In investing, we really need to think carefully about how to overcome human weaknesses.

5. First-class speculators are always waiting, always patient, waiting for the market to verify their judgments. Remember, the secret to making big money is not to buy and sell frequently, but to wait patiently.

Comment: Good stocks are always there, but good prices are not. Without patience, nothing will be accomplished.

6. You cannot speculate every day or every week and be successful. In a year, there will only be a few opportunities to enter the market, maybe four or five.

Before the right time to enter the market comes, it is better to wait for the market to develop and wait for the next big opportunity.

Comment: Even such big speculators say there are only a few trading opportunities a year (Buffett only has one every few years, waiting for Davis to double-click). It can be seen that those of us who trade frequently are not even speculating, but gambling. The final result can only be?

7. No matter when it is, I will wait patiently for the market to reach what I think is the "critical point" ". Only then will I start trading in the market. As long as I keep doing this, I can always make money. I always start trading at a psychological moment when a trend is just beginning. I don't have to worry about losing money because I just happen to take decisive steps to follow up when the principles I adhere to tell me to act immediately. So what I have to do is to stand still and wait for the market to develop according to its trend. I know that if I do this, the market itself will give me a signal at the right time to close my position at a profit. Years of trading have taught me that if I don't trade near the start of a trend, I will never make much money from that trend.

Comment: Let’s reflect on it. From a hype perspective, each stock basically has a 30-40 range of fluctuations from low to high every year. How to build your own trading system is a very important lesson in our investment career.

8. Remember this: When you wait for the opportunity rationally, those who engage in daily speculation are just paving the way for your first attack, and their mistakes will allow you to profit later.

Comments: Compared with these daily trading gambling, speculation still requires technical content. The mantis stalks the cicada, followed by the oriole.

9. You must concentrate on researching the stocks with the most prominent trends today, which are what we usually call leading stocks, especially leading stocks in leading industries and strong industries. If you can't leave from "leadership". If you can't make money on leading active stocks, you can't make money on the entire stock market.

Comment: Investment is to buy a leader, because the leader has pricing power, can raise prices, and profits will increase significantly. This is the same point of view as price investing.

10. In speculation, if you want to make money, you must buy or sell profitable commodities or stocks from the beginning. Those that fall after buying or selling mean you are making a mistake. Generally speaking, if there is still no improvement within three days, throw it away immediately.

Comment: Don’t misunderstand this point, what he said is the decline after buying at the key point (because he has very high requirements for the key point of buying, if it still falls, it must be a mistake) ). And we ordinary investors often buy indiscriminately, and then pretend to use the healing method of stopping loss by seven points. 12. When the market enters an obvious trend, it will automatically run along a specific route throughout its entire trend.

Comment: Once the trend is formed, it will follow the inertia, because it is human nature to chase the rise and kill the fall. For example, from the small and medium-sized enterprises that have soared in the past few years to the blue chip stocks that have soared recently, they all have the power of trends.

11. In long-term trading, apart from knowledge, patience is more important than any other factor. In fact, patience and knowledge complement each other. Those who want to succeed through speculation should learn a simple truth, Before you buy or sell, you must study it carefully to confirm whether it is the best time for you to enter the market. Only in this way can you ensure that your position is the correct position.

Comments: Successful investment vision and patience are both indispensable.

12. After he is lucky enough to double his original principal in the stock market through speculation, he should immediately put aside half of the profit as a reserve fund. This method once worked great for me. There are benefits, and my only regret is that I have not been able to implement this principle throughout my career. In some places it would have made my investment journey smoother.

Comment: This is a very important principle. In stock market investment, 99% of people do not have this habit (including Livermore does not insist on it). If you develop this habit, I believe everyone No career will fail.

The stock market is a place where risks and opportunities coexist. High risks and high returns are particularly prominent in the stock market, and stock trading has always been regarded as a high-risk investment. In fact, as long as you master the stock selection skills, you can greatly reduce risks and increase returns. When choosing stocks, you must choose the strongest stocks. Buying stocks is not about buying the stocks that will rise the best, but buying the stocks that may rise the best. Today I will focus on three things you should not sell and seven things you should not buy in stocks.

Three Don’ts to Sell Stocks:

One of the “Three Don’ts to Sell”: The three armies will join forces and be optimistic about the market outlook. The so-called "joining of the three armies" means that the three moving averages on the 5th, 10th, and 30th (or 20th) move from high to low, then head upward, and they turn together.

The second of the "Three Don't Sell Tips": Take a two-pronged approach and don't be afraid of holding shares. "Two-pronged approach" is a graphic composed of two juxtaposed lines with long shadows and small entities. After the stock price falls to a low level, if long lower shadows and small entities appear continuously, and the lowest point of the lower shadow line is relatively close, it is called a "two-pronged approach".

The third of the "Three No-Selling Tips": Wuyang comes into battle, and the stock price rebounds. "Five positive lines" refers to the trend pattern of five small positive lines that appear continuously after the stock price falls to a low level. These five positive lines, like five generals, are ready to attack the city and seize territory to replace the "air force", indicating that the market outlook will be multi-faceted. At this time, you can join the "Five Suns" to participate in the battle to capture the city and share the results of future victory. The appearance of five positive lines at the low level indicates that the power of long and long at the bottom is strong. The bulls have won for five consecutive days. The "shorts" have been beaten to the ground, and the stock price will take the opportunity to rise in the future.

Seven stocks not to buy:

First, do not buy stocks after the extreme volume has passed. Excessive volume is generally a signal that the main players in the market are starting to flee.

Second, do not buy stocks that have skyrocketed.

Third, resolutely do not buy stocks with large ex-rights.

Fourth, resolutely do not buy stocks with major problems.

Fifth, resolutely do not buy stocks that have been consolidating for a long time.

Sixth, resolutely do not buy stocks that are good for the public. There is a famous saying in the market: good news that everyone knows is definitely not good news; bad news that everyone knows is definitely not bad news; all the bad news is good, and the good news may fall sharply.

Seventh, resolutely do not buy stocks that the fund has a heavy position. Because fund accounts cannot be concealed, they are published once a quarter. The fund does not act as a banker and will run away if there is profit. Of course, this theory has time constraints, and it is most obvious in a bear market.

Reversal gap call auction buying method

Reversal gap call auction buying method is a very stable and ultra-short-term arbitrage model with a high success rate. The specific buying method is See picture for conditions. Note that what we are talking about here is ultra-short-term. If you are not greedy, you will sell out the next day after buying. There will be few examples of failure. The probability of hitting the market on the day of buying is not small. Combined with the success rate of the market, daily K-line patterns, hot spots, etc. will be higher.

Reversal gap: Yesterday’s decline was more than -3.5, and today’s opening price gapped and opened more than 2. During the collective bidding period, it is better to increase the price by pushing the volume, and the first-hand ones are given priority for large-volume transactions

Buying method: During the collective bidding period, repeatedly and quickly look at the tickets with an increase of more than 2 (between 2-4, The closer to 2, the better). Look at yesterday's drop. If it is above -3.5 (the bigger, the better), keep an eye on it immediately and place a good order quickly (write the buying price at a higher point in case you can't buy it. The real transaction price will be actual opening price). Then confirm the purchase at around 09:24 (in case the opening price drops at the last moment, which does not conform to the reversal gap pattern.)

1. N-word daily limit stocks:

This form means that there was already a daily limit in the early stage, and then the volume was briefly adjusted back for a few days, and then the volume was increased to the daily limit again, and the stock price reached a new high. The fewer the number of callback days, the smaller the callback amplitude, and the more promising it will be in the future.

The reason for the callback is usually that the stock price suddenly rises to the limit in the early stage, and the stock price is a little far away from MA5, and it calls back briefly to repair the deviation. Therefore, it is crucial to be optimistic about the support of MA5. Or the early limit is just a test move by the main force, and it will really start in the later stage.

Buying point (in the second daily limit):

A. When it breaks through the previous daily limit price; B. When it breaks through the highest price on the callback day; C. When it breaks through the second daily limit price .

This stock is very classic. It has been going up and down again for several consecutive days.

2. Stocks with daily limit after long upper shadow:

This form generally appears on the way up. It will increase in volume in the early trading, then gradually fall back in late trading, and close with a long upper shadow. Hammerhead. This form does not distinguish between Yang Hammer or Yin Hammer. If this form is a new stock that has just been listed, you should also look at the higher line in the later period.

The inverted hammer in the bottom area in the early stage of the rise has the flavor of a fairy guiding the way. It is an upward test move. It will often go well in the later period. It is best to form a gap above the 5-day line. .

The most ideal trend for the next day: follow yesterday's late trading trend, open slightly lower, and then move higher quickly, with both positive and negative effects. It would be very good if the long upper shadow points directly to the daily limit (I dare to let you out at the upper limit, that's enough for my buddy). If it makes a comeback the next day, the probability of hitting the daily limit after breaking through the previous day's high is very high.

This form should be distinguished from the inverted hammer head in the top area after a continuous surge. The latter should be avoided as it is a lightning rod, indicating heavy selling pressure.

Buying point:

A. When heavy volume breaks through the highest price of the previous day, it is also a relatively safe intervention point;

B. Price limit. It is best to raise the limit reflexively the next day. If the limit is raised after many days, the timing will be bad.

The moving average is bullish, and MA5 has good support.

3. Stocks that hit their daily limit after the volume is falsely negative:

This form refers to a stock that opens high and moves low after a large increase in volume. The real body closes a negative line (the bigger the real body, the better). In fact, The increase is around 3. It is best to form a gap above the 5-day line. It is best to increase the volume for the first time in many days, and the volume ratio should be more than 3 times.

The most ideal trend for the next day: open higher and move higher, letting those who sold at the end of yesterday go short, and the daily shape must also be ideal.

This form generally appears during the rise. This form does not refer to the dark cloud cover in the top area, the head and feet are broken, etc. We should pay attention to distinguish it.

The buying point is similar to the above.

This has been the case for several consecutive days, and the first Yin volume increased for the first time.

4. Stocks that first lower their limit and then raise their limit:

This pattern refers to stocks that fell to their limit due to various reasons on the previous day, and then reversed their limit the next day.

The reason for the lower limit is generally a sharp decline in the market or a negative trend in individual stocks, or there is a requirement to pull back MA5 due to an excessive rise.

Buying point: price limit.

Continuous daily limit, pullback when the rise is too rapid, and does not break MA5.

Priceless stock trading philosophy

I have done short-term, mid-term, and long-term. In fact, many of them are passive. For example, I feel that short-term returns are high. Catch a stock that has hit the daily limit for 2.3 consecutive days. One year's income exceeds Buffett's 30 per year. The temptation is quite big, but if you make a mistake in judgment and get trapped, you can console yourself for the long term and hold for the long term. If you make "value investment", the result will be long-term trapping and long-term losses.

In fact, short-term trading is also possible, but you must set a stop loss. For example, if it falls below 5 points, you must sell regardless of the reason, so as to achieve a large profit and a small loss. But how many people will sell it when they can get 5? Many people are reluctant to part with it, thinking that it will rise again tomorrow. As a result...

If you are doing the midline, you don't have to care about the recent fluctuations. When the buying point is reached, buy, when the selling point is reached, sell, and then go short, waiting for the next opportunity. I don’t do long-term business. Most Chinese companies are not suitable for long-term holding. Long-term holding will result in long-term pain. China is still unable to produce world-class companies such as Geely and Coca-Cola.

My current thinking is very simple, do the mid-line band, for example, if you get a profit of 20, then go short, avoid the risk of a correction or decline, wait for the next opportunity, and then get a profit of 20. Sometimes, Maybe there are only 2 or 3 such opportunities a year. However, you must know that in Buffett's investment career of nearly 50 years, on average, he only had one opportunity a year, with a profit of 29 each time. The goal I set for myself is 2 or 3 times a year, which is actually very high.

For example, with 100,000 yuan, if I can make a profit of 20 yuan three times a year. In just 10 years, I will be a billionaire. This is obviously unrealistic. To achieve this, the buying point must be correct and the short position must be correct. Know when to buy and when to sell. And you must not encounter landmine stocks. The so-called landmine stocks mean that after buying them, they fall to the limit N times in a row. In that case, the previous profits will be in vain, so it is actually very difficult to make money from stocks.

Earning 20 yuan each time avoids the risk of each decline, and then the second 20 yuan profit is success. Success is doing simple things repeatedly. Related Q&A: What does the formula of seven not to buy and three not to sell funds mean?

The formula of "Do not buy seven funds and do not sell three funds": Do not buy long-term consolidation funds, funds with large ex-rights, funds with heavy positions, funds with skyrocketing stock prices, funds whose main income has been disclosed , transactions, funds with large amounts, funds with big problems. A two-pronged approach, don’t be afraid if you hold shares; the three armies work together to see Wuyang go into battle, and the stock price will rebound.

One and seven not-to-buy formulas:

1. Do not buy long-term consolidation funds. Such stocks will find it difficult to rise even when the bull market is strong.

2. If you don’t buy a fund with a large ex-rights ratio, ex-rights in China are often a means for bankers to attract retail investors.

3. Don’t buy funds with large positions, especially in a bull market. Many people like to follow institutions, but when institutions are shipping, stock prices tend to fall in a particularly exaggerated way.

4. If you don’t buy a fund whose stock price rises sharply, sometimes the stock price will rise above the line in a short period of time, with a large increase. Such stocks can easily be subject to a sharp correction. If you accidentally follow It will be stuck.

5. Do not buy funds whose main income has been disclosed. Before and after the bad news was announced, funds, the main force with better information, had already adjusted the stock price in place. When retail investors know about it, they often intervene at a high level.

6. If you don’t buy a fund with a large number of transactions, then stocks with a large number of transactions are often the result of banker speculation. The rise in stock prices is artificially manipulated to a certain extent, and the intervention of retail investors will only make wedding dresses for others.

7. If you do not buy funds with major problems, some listed companies will be warned or even punished by the Securities Regulatory Commission for their business or financial problems. Such a stock will be severely sold off and the share price will fall sharply and quickly.

Two and three not-selling formulas

1. A two-pronged approach, don’t be afraid of holding shares. This situation mostly occurs after a long-term decline. The stock price continues to move out of two long shadow lines and short entity K lines. The lowest points of these two K lines are almost the same. The two-pronged trend means that the resistance of the long side is very determined and aggressive, and the bargaining chips discovered by the short side are quickly digested. The possibility of the stock price bottoming out is extremely high, so you can continue to hold the stock and wait for it to rise.

2. The three armed forces are jointly optimistic that there will be a correction after the stock price rises for a long time. At this time, the three moving averages of the fund in May, October, and 30th will also move from high to low. When the moving averages stick together at the low level and tend to rise, it is basically a signal that the pullback is over and the rise continues. At this time, investors can intervene again.

3. Wuyang comes into battle and the stock price rebounds. After the stock price consolidated at the bottom for a period of time, five small positive lines appeared in succession, indicating that the short side has given up on suppressing the stock, market sentiment has gradually recovered, hot money and retail investors have begun to gradually accumulate funds, and the stock price can rebound in the next trend.