In the incident where the Russian Soviet 24 was shot down, Putin performed very well, and his retraction and retraction were beautiful on dry ground! We might as well look for the context of his behavior: First, he is the first to occupy the moral high ground.
In terms of seizing the moral high ground, Russia’s experience is worth studying and learning. First of all, Russia is going to actually attack IS and let the whole world see the results of Russia's strikes. Especially when a terrorist attack broke out in Paris, France, and the whole of Europe was tormented by refugees and terrorist attacks, Russia demonstrated its attitude of resolutely fighting against IS, the public enemy of mankind, and at the same time easily solved Assad's siege. It was a face-to-face confrontation. The basis for the West’s public opinion war.
After the Russian fighter plane was shot down by Turkey, Putin was visiting Jordan at the time. So when he met with the King of Jordan, he made it clear that Turkey was protecting terrorists and was launching cold arrows in the back, which went beyond the scope of counter-terrorism. This series of statements not only clears the attitude, but also sets the bottom line.
In response to a series of loopholes in Turkey’s public statement, Russia forced Turkey to say that it deliberately shot down the fighter jet while shouting from a distance, and let the international community know that Turkey’s behavior was to protect terrorists. In this regard, Turkish President Erdogan’s statement that “Russia is not fighting IS at all, but is bombing Turkey’s relatives, the Turkmen people,” completely exposed Turkey’s interests. Just imagine, the effect of Russia's fight against IS has been witnessed by the whole world. Even the United States does not admit this. Turkey's words like this will obviously give the world the impression of supporting IS and lying.
What is important is that Russia forced Turkey to reveal the specific details of the shooting down. In view of reality, the final details released by Turkey were that the Russian fighter jet crossed the border twice in one shot and only crossed the border for 17 seconds. The 17 seconds clearly conflicts with the original 5-minute warning of 10 times. If the Russian fighter jets have not yet reached Turkish airspace, what qualifications does Türkiye have to warn? If the intrusion only lasts 17 seconds, where is the time for warning and communication? Normal people can imagine that this was prepared in advance and they would shoot down the Russian fighter planes when they saw them crossing the border or shoot them down after them. In order to defend itself, Türkiye had to say that if it invades, it has the right to shoot it down. However, Russia then came up with information showing that in 2014 alone, Turkish fighter jets invaded Greek airspace more than 2,200 times, and Turkish President Erdogan said at the time that temporary intrusions should not be blamed. Your Turkish planes are justified in invading other countries' airspace more than 2,000 times a year. How come other countries' planes were shot down just 17 seconds after entering? Isn't this nonsense?
It is precisely based on these public opinion realities that although the European Union, Germany, France, the United States and NATO all say that Turkey has the right to do so, they can only say that it has gone too far and should not do so. The United States immediately clarified that NATO would not endorse Turkey. One of the important reasons why these effects can be achieved is that Russia fought well in the public opinion war and Turkey was completely defeated!
More than 90% of the comments from readers of the British "Daily Mail" support Russia. They believe that Russia is helping Europe fight against terrorist organizations, while Turkey is supporting terrorists. Many people even want Türkiye to get out of NATO. In fact, on this matter, the EU has basically closed the door to Turkey. Turkey has almost offended old Europe. Think about it, Turkey is transporting refugees and terrorists to Europe, and Turkey is supporting Russia in its fight against IS. Once this impression is established among the people of Western European countries, what kind of situation will Turkey face?
Second, seize the diplomatic opportunity and push the United States into a corner in terms of public opinion.
Russia is very sophisticated in diplomacy. When dealing with France, which represents the whole of Europe, it welcomes cooperation with open arms. When pulling France, it also said that it would establish an anti-IS alliance with France and the United States, and stated at the first opportunity that Russia would not go to war with Turkey. With these words, the hearts of EU countries are in their stomachs. Russia is here to show the EU that Russia will not be angry with Europe as a whole because of this matter. Russia still hopes to develop friendly relations with Europe. With this attitude, Europe will not feel disgusted with Russia, but will have some sympathy. After all, Western European countries are now suffering from IS and refugees.
Russia had this attitude on the first day, but on the second day it changed its attitude towards the United States and directly asked Turkey, does the United States know about this? Does President Obama know? Is it tacitly approved by the White House? Türkiye did not answer these questions, but this is a diplomatic maneuver by Russia. The United States immediately distanced itself from the fact that this incident had nothing to do with the United States. Then Russia further forced Turkey. Does the United States know about this? If the other party says it knows, Russia will directly question the United States. Turkey does not dare to say anything, so if Russia asks such a question, the White House does not dare to say anything nonsense, because it may cause the White House to get angry and become the target of public opinion. The White House aims to lead the anti-IS coalition and must not fall into the whirlpool of public opinion.
With these, Russia has actually taken the initiative in diplomacy. If we take the initiative in diplomacy, we will have room to do "real things" next.
Third, remove the nervous psychological baggage of the West and find out the strategic bottom line of the United States and NATO.
After the Russian fighter plane was shot down, Turkey, Russia, the United States, the European Union, and NATO were all very nervous. This was a mistake, because once Russia went to war with Turkey, the entire NATO would be in trouble. If they are involved, it will become a world war. Therefore, after the incident, Turkey was worried about being "beaten" and was busy "looking for its mother." The United States, France, Germany, Britain, the European Union, and NATO quickly called for calm and not to escalate. Russia reacted fiercely but also very calmly. It immediately stated that it would not break out into a war or escalate the incident. This way, it would first remove the psychological burden of NATO countries and prevent the incident from escalating into a confrontation between NATO and Russia.
In fact, among the relevant parties here, except Turkey, which wants to escalate this matter to the NATO level against Russia, no other country wants to do so. Therefore, when Russia gave this "reassurance", NATO and major NATO countries soon expressed their stance. You should have seen the relevant statements, and the overall tone is the same: Turkey has the right to self-defense, but this matter has gone too far. Russia and Turkey should communicate and resolve this matter themselves.
Knowing the bottom line of major Western countries will free up Russia's hands and feet.
4. Take revenge.
The Russians are a nation that is determined to retaliate. After NATO expressed its stance, they used diplomatic means to divide the views of the United States and Europe, and at the same time launched plans and revenge against Turkey. Russia first deployed cruisers with strong prevention and control capabilities in northern Syria, so that they can protect Russian fighter planes performing missions in northern Syria. At the same time, Russia will also deploy S400 air defense missiles and use fighter jets to escort fighter jets bombing IS. With these deployments, this actually sets a no-fly zone for the Turks. As long as Turkey goes one step further, Russia may follow the same pattern and shoot down Turkish fighter jets. With the latest S400 air defense missiles, the S300 sea-based air defense missiles installed on Russian cruisers, and the escort of fighter planes, if Turkey dares to act recklessly again, Russia will definitely take action.
After carrying out a series of deployments, Russia carried out carpet bombing against the Syrian opposition protected by Turkey. Russia's biggest blow to its opponents is not to go to war with Turkey, but to severely attack the Syrian opposition. In the past, Russia might have considered Turkey's mood and not been so ruthless, but now that it has broken ranks, what else does it care about? So there was continuous carpet bombing after the incident. If it doesn't stop there, is it still a tough guy? Russia, which is determined to retaliate, will not do that. Therefore, we saw that after the war of public opinion and diplomacy had initially come to an end, Russia bombed Turkey's so-called "humanitarian aid" convoy on the third day, killing 7 people and injuring 10 others. In this incident in Russia, one person was killed and two people were injured, but in Turkey, seven people were killed and 10 were injured.
Turkey yelled at the convoy bombing incident, but NATO was silent and Russia did not confirm it. What could Turkey do? More importantly, Russia’s retaliation is also defensible. Since Russian fighter planes cannot invade Turkey for 17 seconds, how can your convoy enter Syria? It will explode naturally when it comes.
In fact, the reality has meant that Russia has used military means to cut off Turkey’s economic ties with the Syrian opposition and IS. The Turks have no chance of making money by transporting oil. The Syrian opposition Turkmen Brigade will also pay the price for killing Russian pilots. Without support and carpet bombing, they may die faster than IS. It is estimated that in the future, the Russians will shift more of their energy from bombing IS to bombing Syrian opposition forces.
If revenge only stops here, is he still not only tough but also a bit sinister? Russia, which is determined to retaliate, will not do that. According to the latest news from Russia on November 26, a visiting delegation led by the Syrian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister has arrived in Moscow. In an extraordinary move, the leader of Syria's Kurds will meet with senior Syrian representatives in Moscow for the first time. What do you mean? This most likely means that Putin will push the Syrian government to give the Syrian Kurds a high degree of autonomy. Once the conditions are negotiated in the future, the Russians will militarily arm the Syrian Kurds, and then the Syrian Kurds will form an alliance with the PKK to cooperate with Turkey on Syrian soil. A military zone is formed on the land of the Kurdish region. Next, the Kurds, with the support of Russia, attack Turkey northward. This will be a nightmare for Turkey. For Syria, this matter can be achieved by using Russia's power to split Turkish land through the Kurds, and then join Syria in the form of a Kurdish autonomous region. Although these are still distant opposites now, Putin is taking precautions for all these things. In the future, these precautions may really cost Türkiye half its life.
5. Draw a red line.
While making these retaliations, Putin issued an ultimatum to Turkey on November 26: If it shoots down a Russian fighter jet again, it will retaliate! Putin may not think anything of this when he says it, but the audience may find it somewhat humorous, because in Putin's view, the above series of "retaliations" are not "retaliation", they are just eye drops.
In fact, these actions of Russia, while carrying out side-by-side retaliation, also draw a red line for Turkey, you have to admire the Russians' side-by-side retaliation, which is really unmatched by other countries.
Of course, Erdogan also made harsh words, saying that he would be shot down if he invaded Turkish airspace again. Having said this, with the Turkish president's aggressiveness, he may not rule out doing this, but who shoots down whom depends on who strikes quickly.
Putin’s five moves are linked one after another. They are a cat-and-mouse game with Turkey after eliminating systemic risks. Small countries are enemies of big countries, and the days of hardship are still to come... With Putin's character, there must be backup plans behind him. Let's see what we do next.