The same is true of global steel production, which decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, which is the first reduction since 1998. Especially in recent months, production is very severe, especially in developed countries, the monthly output has decreased by 40%-50%. In recent years, China's steel output has developed rapidly. China's steel output has increased from 36.4% to 37.7% in the world, and this proportion will increase in 2009. Judging from the current situation, China's steel output will increase in June this year from 5438+ 10, but the global steel output will still decline.
The growth of steel production and consumption in China is basically the same, which is an important reason for the development of steel enterprises in China in recent years, mainly driven by domestic demand. From 1978 to 2004, China imported a large number of steel products. China imported 350 million tons of crude steel. Since 2005, China's steel imports and exports have been basically balanced, with imports of 250,000 tons. From 2006 to 2008, influenced by the steel export restriction policy of China, the trade protection adopted by steel importing countries of China and the international financial crisis, the export in 2008 decreased by 12.3% compared with the previous year. In this case, the billet has dropped a lot. This is because the national policy strictly restricts the export of billet primary products and imposes a tariff of 25%.
Among the exporting countries and regions, South Korea is the largest destination of China's steel products, and the other is the European Union. However, exports to the EU have fallen sharply this year. In recent years, the European Union and the United States have put forward anti-dumping and countervailing measures against China's steel exports.
From the monthly situation, due to the impact of this economic crisis, great changes have taken place in the steel industry. 165438+ 10 bottomed out in October, with an average daily steel production of1160,000 tons. According to the output in 165438+ 10, the annual output of steel in China is equivalent to 423 million tons. 165438+ 10 was 26.2% lower than that in June, equivalent to 65438+500 million tons of idle capacity. Last June, 5438+065438+ 10, the average daily steel consumption decreased to10.5 million tons, and then it began to pick up in June, 5438+065438+February. According to the available data, it continued to rise in June 5438+ 10. Does this mean that the economy is starting to pick up or that actual consumption is increasing? That's not true. Recently, some steel dealers are puzzled by this phenomenon, thinking that the economy has recovered, the state's 4 trillion investment has begun to play a role, and the demand for steel will rise in the future. Actually, we don't think so. This stage is the stage of steel digestion and inventory. However, the actual consumption we judge should be a downward trend, and there is no sign of recovery.
Steel exports have also fallen sharply, reaching the highest level in August last year, and then gradually declined. By June this year, it had dropped to monthly export 19 10000 tons. This reflects the shrinking global steel demand. In June+10/October, 5438, the world steel output decreased by 2.4%. According to our calculation, the steel output in China increased. The United States has dropped by 52.7%, France by 46.7% and Germany by 35.6%, which shows that the economic crisis has a great impact on the economy. Don't expect the economy to recover in just a few months. Whether the increase of government-led investment can make up for the decline of market-led investment is a big question mark. These include investment in domestic consumer industries and investment in export-oriented industries. The decline in exports itself consumes less steel, and investment in this industry will decrease. Everyone is concerned that in recent months, in the composition of imports, equipment imports have dropped by 50%-60%. Due to the reduction of output and the influence of various factors, the profit income of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises has decreased by 4 1.4%. The reason is the decline in production and sales, steel prices plummeted. Raw materials imported in the early stage that can last for three or four months are all imported at high prices. The monthly loss was 29.4 billion yuan. In 2009, I think there may be losses for several months and one month, and it is unlikely that there will be losses for the whole year.
Let me talk about international trade from the perspective of iron and steel industry. The first view is that the steel industry is mainly to meet domestic demand. We use two resources and two markets. The slogan put forward at that time now seems to need to be revised. At present, the layout of steel demand is in the consumption place rather than the resource place. The ore output is superior, and the production resources are very rich, but it is not a big and powerful country in steel production. Those who have no raw materials are imported, but they are the main producers of steel. Therefore, it is impossible to explain only by considering the comparative advantage of production costs. In addition, from the perspective of the proportion of steel international trade in output, since the end of the Cold War, the proportion of steel trade has gradually increased from less than 20% to more than 40% at the peak. However, since then, although the international trade volume of steel has been increasing, its proportion in international trade is declining. It also includes free trade zones, trade within some unified economies. For example, in the European Union, their international trade volume is not small, but most of it is intra-EU trade. Excluding the trade of these economies, the proportion of international trade in steel production has decreased by less than 20%. This poses a question to our foreign trade experts. Some products can be produced in one country or several countries and supplied to the world, but not steel. The law behind this will not be unfolded.
The consumption of countries is mainly domestic steel. The iron and steel industry mainly meets domestic demand, but international trade still exists. Why does it exist? One is to adjust the supply relationship of varieties, and the other is the cost. Because the material of steel is different from others, others may depend on the brand value or something. Steel mainly depends on cost and price. South America is mainly rich in mineral resources, while the Middle East mainly produces steel with very cheap energy. Besides, China's steel production cost is the lowest, and it has obvious cost advantages compared with Europe and America. After all, China has a certain degree of self-sufficiency in raw materials, less than 50%, but it has been maintained at around 48% in recent years, because China has its own mines. The other is labor cost, so I won't talk about it.
Nevertheless, exporting a large number of steel products is not in line with the national interests, the long-term interests of the steel industry, or even the interests of all mankind. Because the energy consumption of the steel industry accounts for 25. 1% of the whole industry, the emission of major pollutants accounts for 10- 16% of the whole industry, the employment of steel accounts for 4.64% of the total employment of the whole industry, and the industrial added value created accounts for 8.34% of the whole industry. The Japanese import a lot of steel from China, but they don't produce some low-grade steel, so they transfer these products to developing countries like China. This is also inappropriate for the whole world. Because the environmental protection level of China's steel industry is lower than that of western developed steel producing countries.
In addition, steel exports are also an important factor leading to the rise in iron ore prices. In the second half of 2007, a few months before the ore negotiation, the iron ore in China rose to10.5 million yuan a ton. In this case, Australia and Brazil have no reason not to raise prices. Therefore, it is very unfavorable in the negotiations. In addition, the elimination of backwardness, although China's steel industry has made rapid progress in recent years, there are still a large number of backward production capacity, both of which are in China. One is the best steelmaking equipment in China, and the other is the most backward in China, which is in a polarized situation. So now the task of eliminating backwardness is also very heavy. A large number of steel and billet exports are also not conducive to the elimination of backwardness.
Therefore, as far as China's national policies are concerned, as a research institution, we also provide some basis for the country to formulate these policies. Therefore, by restricting the export of steel products, China has become one of the few countries in the world to impose tariffs on exported steel products. In addition, in terms of value-added tax, there are also some international practices that violate "export products are tax-free". We implement zero export tax rebate for value-added tax, which also reflects the orientation of China government to restrict steel exports.
However, we are opposed to the unwarranted accusation that "the China government subsidizes steel", and in this name, it implements trade protectionism against China's steel products. I have an article refuting this one by one. More than 90% of the analysis is untrue, and there are many low-level errors in the calculation of export tax rebate rate. I also mentioned the exchange rate issue, which I didn't study in depth. Professor McKinnon mentioned a similar problem just now. According to purchasing power evaluation, there is a linear relationship between currency undervaluation and economic development level in various countries, and China is just on this straight line, so the steel development level in China is compatible with the economic development level in China.
Where are the main sources of China's iron and steel cost competitiveness in recent years? The main reason is that some developed countries have not seen the progress of China's iron and steel industry. They use a kind of stagnant eyes. They can't produce it at this cost. Why can't it be produced? He didn't see the rapid development of China's steel industry in recent years.
Finally, sum up.
First, the fundamental reason for the rapid development of China's iron and steel industry in recent years is that the national economy has entered a rapid development track, which has generated strong domestic demand for iron and steel materials.
Second, China's transformation from net steel import to net steel export is not only due to the technical and management progress of the steel industry itself, but also related to the current development environment in China.
Thirdly, according to the distribution law of steel industry, national interests and long-term interests of the industry, if China does not support the export of a large number of steel products, it will be a long-term division.
Fourthly, the strategic positioning of China's iron and steel industry provides steel products with complete varieties, high quality and competitive prices for all iron and steel industries in the national economy, which not only meets domestic demand, but also helps equipment manufacturing and other industries to improve their export competitiveness and expand their own market space.
Fifth, we oppose trade protectionism against China's steel, because it will spread to other goods and services trade, which is not conducive to world economic integration and recovery as soon as possible.