2016 is the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, but most economists believe that this year is the year when China’s L-shaped economy will continue to bottom out. According to my observation for many years, every year there are various arguments about China's economic collapse on Tianya and Baidu. Every year they say how difficult the economy will be this year. Most of them are unfounded worries. Everyone just treats it as entertainment news and just reads it. Let me give you an example. In fact, many years ago, some pessimistic friends were worried about the economic collapse and insisted on converting the RMB in their hands into US dollars, and then transferred it to foreign banks or simply exchanged it for US dollars and stored it in a safe. Facts have proved that these people have missed the big bull market and can only watch other people's houses and the RMB appreciate sharply. The RMB has experienced a bull market for nearly ten years since the exchange reform in 2005, and the effective exchange rate has risen by about 50, while the national real estate market has experienced a bull market of nearly ten years. Prices have increased tenfold since 2003. Later, I asked these friends privately: You can be bearish on the Chinese economy, but why do you need to transfer foreign currency to foreign banks or exchange it for cash? Their answer was actually that they were worried about the state's forced settlement of foreign exchange. I just want to say this: Don't give up treatment, don't stop taking medicine. Having said that, will the economy be difficult this year? This year has been difficult, really difficult. You see, many urban real estate projects are idle in large tracts, and developers dare not start construction, because starting construction means death, but not moving means waiting to die. How much developed housing inventory is there? The real economy is also in dire straits, and many industrial park companies have closed down. Some first-tier wealthy families lost their fortune overnight. Even fast-moving consumer markets such as barber shops and retail markets are seeing much worse business than in previous years.

In order to understand the whole story of the economy, I would like to start with laws. What are laws? Laws are the intrinsic and inevitable connections in the movement of things. The economy itself is cyclical. I have a roommate who was not doing his job as a graduate student. He actually studied some kind of theory of universal reunification based on some game theory. Just hearing the name, you can tell that it was the result of being too addicted to reading novels. There are too many digressions. Why is his theory of the return of all phenomena mentioned here? Literally, it means that the development of all affairs is a cycle of reincarnation. So here I want to talk about the starting point of this cycle of China’s economy, and where will it end?

Looking back at this housing bull market, it can be traced back to August 2003. The State Council clearly designated the real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy and clearly proposed to maintain the sustained and healthy development of the real estate industry. Real estate prices rose rapidly in the next two years, so regulation began in 2005, and National Eight Articles and New National Eight Articles were promulgated successively, followed by n times of interest rate hikes, higher loan down payment ratios, National Six Articles, and the collection of second-hand house business tax and personal income tax. By increasing reserves, etc., housing price control has finally begun to bear fruit. However, after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, policy control came to an abrupt end. On September 15, 2008, the central bank announced a "double rate" reduction. On October 12, 2008, a series of new policies were introduced to support real estate, such as providing a 30% discount on loan interest rates for first-time buyers and improved ordinary housing, and the minimum down payment was reduced to 20. Real estate is experiencing another surge. In the following years, the most stringent regulatory policies in history ushered in, and the regulation finally achieved results in 2014. Now the country has once again stepped in to rescue the market, but this time I am afraid it will be the last time. It can be said that the logic of making money in the past ten years is very simple, which is to buy a house - take out a loan to buy a house - appreciate the value of the house - re-evaluate and then take out a loan - continue to buy a house. This leveraged house buying strategy has made many people rich. Of course, there are some experts who make profits by speculating on real estate futures. For example, if A signs a 1 million yuan purchase contract with a developer and pays the developer a deposit of 20,000 yuan, but if A has a good relationship with the developer and the housing authority, If so, he can delay paying the down payment and apply for a mortgage. After a certain period of time, the price of the house rises to 1.2 million yuan. A decides to sell to B, and finds the development and housing management departments to modify the contract filing and directly change the name of the buyer. For B, B needs to pay A 200,000 yuan and pay 980,000 yuan to the developer as stipulated in the contract (deducting the 20,000 yuan deposit already paid by A). So A only invested 20,000 yuan and obtained a profit of 200,000 yuan.

Poor people have always imagined that government regulation will cause housing prices to fall back. However, the more the government controls, the more housing prices rise. If people believe in regulation, the ending will be tragic. The longer they wait, the less they can afford to buy a house. The original full payment , so far it may only be enough for a down payment. Finally, after many years of baptism, no one believes that house prices will fall. The rental-to-sale ratio, house price-to-income ratio, and other indicators are all clouds. Everyone believes that you will earn money when you buy it, and the value will increase if you buy it! Even though a small number of people know that there is a real estate bubble, they firmly believe that the bubble is made of iron. So getting married has become a very luxurious experience. If a man wants to get married, he must obediently buy a house. If he cannot afford to buy a house, the most difficult thing to get is the mother-in-law, and this is only the first step. Even if you get the mother-in-law, There is also your father-in-law, and a whole bunch of aunts and aunts to give you advice. Getting married without buying a house is actually considered a hooliganism. You need to deal with too many people, not just the mother-in-law.

An economist said that successful investors are very unsociable. When the music starts, everyone gets up and dances, but he hides alone in the corner and drinks silently. When the music stops, everyone gets up and dances. Everyone was competing for chairs, but he danced gracefully. Some people also say that the best profit period is when the bubble is inflated. I think they are all reasonable. The key depends on how you grasp this degree and deal with this issue in a compromise. Of course you can embrace the bubble, but you must not lick the blood. And now in 2016, you have embraced the bubble for so many years, and now is the time to lick the blood. I must remind everyone that the music is coming to an end. Please arrange happy edding calmly, keep your money, leave a house, and A store with a tight core, bring your children, hold your wife tight, enjoy the joy of life, and let others grab the last piece of cake. Maybe there will be some profits from real estate in the future, and maybe you may have some unfinished business, but it is better to earn this kind of money for others. Remember, never envy the gambler for winning money.

Here are only three views on the logic of real estate growth in the past ten years. One is the theory of hot money promotion, the second is the theory of land finance, and the third is the theory of monetary inflation.

At present, these three factors are basically all out. First, let’s talk about the promotion of hot money. There is a famous saying on Wall Street that money never sleeps. Capital is profit-seeking. As the RMB continues to appreciate in the past few years, China’s assets continue to appreciate. International capital smelling of blood continues to flow into China, further promoting Domestic housing prices have risen. There is a joke on the Internet about an American who traveled to China and exchanged US$200,000 for 1.34 million yuan, bought a single apartment for 1 million, and spent 340,000 on food, drinks and entertainment for a year. When I wanted to go back the next year, the house had gone up and was sold for 2 million. The RMB appreciated to 1:6.2 against the U.S. dollar, and 2 million RMB was exchanged for 320,000 U.S. dollars. Americans earned $120,000 for a year for nothing and went home very happy. However, the U.S. dollar returned strongly in 2015, the RMB depreciated rapidly against the U.S. dollar, and capital flight accelerated. According to the central bank's website, foreign exchange reserves in December 2015 were 3330.362 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 100 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month. Facts have shown that international capital is no longer as interested in Chinese investment as before. Li Ka-shing has been selling commercial properties in China intensively. Who else is willing to take over?

Let’s talk about land finance. It can be said that local fiscal revenue currently mainly relies on land sales, but obviously they are a little impatient, and there is a serious excess of real estate. It has been observed that operating real estate is not much better than raising pigs. Everyone should know that there is a pig cycle, which is generally: falling pig prices - fewer pig farmers - reduced pork supply - rising pork prices - more pig farmers - excess pork supply. If pork is changed into houses, and pig farmers are changed into developers, the above cycle will also hold true. Now that we are in the real estate glut stage, everyone should have expectations and judgments about what will happen next. In 2015, the government emphasized in multiple meetings that destocking was a top priority for the real estate market.

How oversupplied are the houses now? Taking our city as an example, according to simple sampling statistics, each family in this city has about two sets of commercial housing. However, the unsold houses in Xinjiang New District alone can be enough for each family in the old city to buy another one. , do you think there are many houses? Looking at the national data again, if we include those that have been approved and those that are under construction, there are 14 billion square meters. Even according to the best sales year of 2013, the current inventory including those that have been approved but not yet built will take ten years to digest. Now we have seen the bombing of some unfinished real estate projects in some cities, and many people have begun to criticize them. On the one hand, people cannot afford to buy houses, and on the other hand, it is a serious waste of resources. To this I want to say: Do you still remember the story about pouring milk into the ditch in the middle school politics textbook? This is called overproduction, and everyone must accept and get used to this phenomenon. The government also suddenly realized that the common people's house ownership was already very high, and it was unsustainable to rely solely on selling land. There is no such thing as a banquet in the world, so it immediately introduced real estate registration and real estate tax, so that in the future, it would no longer need to rely on land sales. To make a living by selling land, the tax department must calculate the area of ??the existing housing per capita. The larger the area, the more taxes will be paid, and the government can still have a steady stream of revenue.

Finally, let’s talk about currency inflation. Currency inflation is very powerful. China’s excessive currency issuance is very serious. If you believe the data from the Bureau of Statistics and save money in the bank, you may be in tragedy. Every year The official CPI figures are very low, with the highest in the past decade being less than 4%. It is generally believed that anything below 5 is not considered hyperinflation. But in fact, it has been observed that China’s prices have doubled every five years! China has been operating in a negative interest rate environment for a long time. If you deposit money in a bank, your wealth will not increase, but will shrink as prices rise. Therefore, a strange phenomenon has emerged in China:

The poor get poorer as they save money; the rich get richer as they borrow money. The debt ratio of tycoons in the world generally does not exceed 20, but in China, the more the better. It can only be said that the current situation is abnormal. In this context, more and more people are investing their assets in real estate, and further pushing up the debt ratio. price. Today, the price index thing has little meaning. An old lady in Beijing may have tens of millions of assets based on her shabby courtyard house. What do you mean to her if the price of rice, pork, and vegetables doubles? Under normal circumstances, people in first-tier cities are generally quite wealthy. If you sell a house, you will not be able to spend all your money just on food. But it is probably quite difficult to buy another house. For ordinary people, the monthly payment of the house is already It is the largest consumption. As long as housing prices do not rise, the cost of living will not rise. The Shenma CPI basket price index is just a cloud. If you continue to buy a house now, you may be able to afford the house for a lifetime. If you sell a house, you will be relaxed for the rest of your life. Which one will you choose? When it comes to this, many people are going to curse, aren't you a prodigal? Let me give an analogy, if you sell the company's shares at 6,000 points, who would dare to accuse you? Look at the major shareholders who are not reducing their holdings. Are they prodigal?

I would like to make a special statement here. The above suggestions are for people who have multiple houses. The rich people around me are all selling them. Have you sold them today? In addition, the above suggestions are also targeted at people in second- and third-tier cities and below. If your house is in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, if your house is in the core area of ??the second or third tier, it is still safe at present. No matter which city you are in, if you don’t have a house, please consider buying one at the right time. After all, housing prices have dropped a lot. In addition, many local governments have supporting subsidy policies and settlement policies. You must make full use of provident fund loans. The interest rate is very favorable. You can only use it twice in a lifetime, so you must cherish it. You must reduce the down payment ratio as much as possible. In addition, you must calculate it well to match the monthly payment with the provident fund payment. The current policy allows you to withdraw the provident fund every month to pay the monthly payment. You have to do There will be no need for additional expenses every month, and the provident fund paid will be spent as much as possible every month. In terms of house selection, first of all, I suggest you buy a house that has been renovated. In this way, the decoration money can also be borrowed through provident fund loans, and there is no need to raise money for decoration in the next step. Try to choose something with a more popular decoration, fresh and practical, such as Vanke’s decorated house, which is of very good quality and suitable for first-time buyers.

Second, it is recommended to buy a house in a mature area. Life here is convenient and the value is relatively maintained and increased. As a home, I do not recommend it in the new city. It is best to buy a house closer to your parents. Nowadays, young people are busy with their careers, and their parents can help take care of their children. . The third suggestion is to buy a subway house in a school district. This is the icing on the cake. If you can't buy it, forget it. There is no need to pursue it deliberately. The equalization of educational resources should be a major trend in the future. 4. It is recommended to buy big brand real estate. These real estates are more expensive and have higher property fees, but life is much more comfortable. If you don’t care about the property environment, you can ignore this article. 5. You need to choose the right time to buy a house. If you buy a first-hand house, it is better to choose it in the off-season, such as the months after the Chinese New Year. Although there are many promotional activities and marketing publicity during periods like National Day, the price is not affordable. Things are like this. When there are more people buying, the price will not fall. When the customer flow is small, the price will naturally be affordable. If you are buying a second-hand house, it is recommended to buy it before the Spring Festival. Many owners have many houses and urgently need money to settle accounts or purchase goods before the Spring Festival. It is very likely that you will find an affordable house. In addition, pay more attention to some bank auction information, which may be An unexpected bonus. Six houses is really nothing. Don't be anxious. You have to believe that the house is nothing to be proud of. It can never buy my sister's freedom.

Since investing in real estate all-or-nothing is no longer a good idea, how do you manage your wealth? Many people now believe that there is a shortage of asset allocation in 2016. Here I would like to remind everyone of the concept of compound interest. In the past few years, many friends lent money and were embarrassed to tell others if the interest was less than two cents. If everyone is still looking for assets with this expectation, you are totally wrong. In fact, the return of one cent of interest is already very high. Many people think that the prerequisites for getting rich are a huge capital base and high profits. Returns, but not really. The funny Einstein once said: "The greatest energy in the universe is compound interest, and the eighth wonder of the world is compound interest." Suppose you have 1 million yuan now, and it will grow with 12 compound interest every year. After 10 years, it will be 3.11 million yuan. It will be 9.65 million yuan after 20 years and 29.96 million yuan after 30 years. Can you compare, how much will your total salary income be in the next thirty years? The purpose of giving this example is to tell everyone that everyone must lower their expectations of capital returns. The returns in the past few years are short-term and unsustainable. At present, the interest rate of bank loans and housing loans is about 5.1, and now some financial products of small and medium-sized banks can also reach this level. For example, the Zhulianbihe series of Bank of Nanjing has an income of about 5.1. In fact, a yield of around 5 is acceptable during this period.

For the general working class, the premise of surviving the winter stably in 2016 is still rest. I suggest that you allocate your assets as follows: 40 for bank financial products. Remember to buy non-capital-guaranteed products with a return of around 5. The risks of capital-guaranteed and non-capital-guaranteed are similar, but the bank's operating methods are different. 20. When buying bond funds, remember to buy pure debt funds, and do not buy hybrid or convertible bond funds. Many people saw the stock market plummet in 2015 and the circuit breaker in 2016, but few people noticed that many bond funds in 2015 The yield reaches 15. In theory, bonds are negatively correlated with the stock market and interest rate levels. The stock market is currently sluggish, and interest rates are expected to fall. At least in the first half of 2016, the bond market will still be in a bull market. 20 To invest in a p2p leader, it must be a leading company, such as Lufax and Evergrande Financial Services, and the income will be around 7. In addition, keep about 10 in Yu'e Bao, invest in the stock market, or exchange it for US dollars. The depreciation of the RMB in 2016 is expected to be around 5. China Merchants Bank's US dollar financial management has an income of around 2, and the overall return rate is around 8. Finally, leave some money to buy at the bottom. If you find shops and houses with better return rates, you can buy them, such as the Binjiang sector under the Hangzhou Asian Games and G20 concepts. With this configuration, the overall return on assets should be around 8, which far outperforms inflation and house price increases in most cities. There will be many big dramas in China's economy in 2016. What's the plot like? We watched and talked.